VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 20.6 20.7 48 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.0 28.2 28.4 72 0.1 0.1 2.8 2.9 1.0 1.0 35.6 35.8 96 0.1 0.1 3.8 3.9 0.9 0.9 42.8 43.1 120 0.1 0.0 5.1 5.2 0.9 0.9 50.8 50.9 144 0.1 0.0 6.4 6.5 0.8 0.8 58.4 57.6 168 0.0 0.0 7.4 7.7 0.8 0.7 63.2 63.0 192 -0.1 -0.1 8.1 8.4 0.7 0.7 66.5 66.6 216 0.0 -0.1 9.1 9.4 0.7 0.7 70.7 70.4 240 -0.1 -0.1 10.1 10.2 0.6 0.6 73.4 73.7 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.1 8.9 9.2 1.0 1.0 13.2 13.4 48 -0.3 -0.6 16.3 16.9 1.0 1.0 19.9 20.2 72 0.1 -0.1 25.9 26.2 1.0 1.0 26.5 26.8 96 0.1 -0.1 36.5 37.1 0.9 0.9 33.1 33.3 120 -0.3 -0.4 49.1 50.2 0.9 0.9 39.5 40.0 144 -0.4 -0.9 64.0 64.2 0.8 0.8 46.1 45.6 168 -0.8 -1.3 75.3 76.6 0.8 0.8 50.5 50.3 192 -1.7 -2.2 83.4 85.9 0.8 0.7 53.5 53.7 216 -2.4 -2.9 94.0 96.1 0.7 0.7 57.0 57.2 240 -3.4 -4.0 104.0 103.5 0.7 0.7 59.6 59.5 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.2 2.3 11.4 11.3 1.0 1.0 10.2 10.2 48 4.3 4.0 21.6 21.4 1.0 1.0 15.3 15.3 72 6.0 5.7 34.6 34.7 1.0 1.0 20.7 21.0 96 6.9 6.7 49.0 49.3 0.9 0.9 26.4 26.5 120 6.9 6.5 65.5 66.4 0.9 0.9 31.9 32.2 144 6.8 6.3 86.0 85.2 0.9 0.9 38.1 37.6 168 6.5 6.0 104.3 103.4 0.8 0.8 42.9 42.4 192 5.6 4.8 114.8 117.4 0.8 0.8 45.9 45.9 216 3.9 2.6 129.2 131.6 0.7 0.7 49.2 49.5 240 2.4 0.6 142.3 142.3 0.7 0.7 51.8 51.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 72 0.1 0.1 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.6 2.6 0.9 0.9 144 0.2 0.2 3.1 3.1 0.8 0.8 168 0.2 0.2 3.6 3.6 0.8 0.8 192 0.2 0.2 3.9 3.9 0.7 0.7 216 0.3 0.2 4.3 4.3 0.7 0.7 240 0.2 0.2 4.5 4.5 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 72 0.1 0.1 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.9 96 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 120 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.4 0.8 0.8 144 -0.1 0.0 2.7 2.7 0.8 0.8 168 -0.1 -0.1 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.8 192 -0.2 -0.2 3.2 3.2 0.7 0.7 216 -0.3 -0.3 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.7 240 -0.4 -0.4 3.4 3.5 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.7 3.7 48 -0.2 -0.2 5.4 5.5 72 -0.2 -0.2 7.1 7.2 96 -0.3 -0.3 8.8 8.8 120 -0.4 -0.4 10.4 10.5 144 -0.5 -0.5 12.3 12.1 168 -0.6 -0.5 13.4 13.4 192 -0.6 -0.5 14.3 14.4 216 -0.6 -0.6 15.4 15.4 240 -0.6 -0.6 16.1 16.1 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 4.5 4.5 48 -0.4 -0.3 6.7 6.7 72 -0.5 -0.4 9.1 9.1 96 -0.6 -0.5 11.5 11.4 120 -0.7 -0.7 13.9 13.9 144 -0.8 -0.7 16.7 16.3 168 -0.8 -0.7 19.0 18.6 192 -0.9 -0.7 20.4 20.4 216 -0.9 -0.7 22.2 22.2 240 -0.8 -0.7 23.3 23.3 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.8 -1.1 3.9 4.0 0.9 0.9 33.5 33.8 48 -1.2 -1.5 5.7 5.9 0.9 0.9 40.6 41.7 72 -2.1 -2.3 7.1 7.4 0.9 0.8 44.3 45.7 96 -2.8 -2.9 8.1 8.2 0.8 0.8 46.9 48.5 120 -3.5 -3.5 9.5 9.2 0.8 0.8 49.2 50.4 144 -3.9 -4.0 10.5 10.4 0.8 0.8 51.4 52.4 168 -4.2 -4.2 11.3 11.2 0.7 0.7 53.0 54.4 192 -4.1 -4.2 12.1 12.1 0.7 0.7 54.4 56.3 216 -4.8 -5.0 13.1 13.2 0.6 0.6 58.7 60.4 240 -5.1 -5.7 14.1 14.2 0.6 0.6 60.6 62.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.6 2.8 6.2 6.3 0.9 0.9 31.5 32.0 48 3.2 3.7 9.2 9.5 0.9 0.9 38.4 38.7 72 2.7 3.2 11.2 11.3 0.9 0.9 42.8 43.3 96 2.4 3.0 13.5 13.6 0.9 0.9 46.8 47.2 120 2.0 2.6 15.5 15.8 0.9 0.9 50.4 50.7 144 1.5 2.4 17.5 17.7 0.8 0.8 53.9 54.2 168 1.0 2.1 19.7 19.6 0.8 0.8 57.0 57.4 192 0.7 1.8 21.6 21.3 0.8 0.8 59.5 60.2 216 -1.6 -0.6 23.4 23.2 0.7 0.7 62.9 63.5 240 -3.4 -3.0 25.3 25.1 0.7 0.7 65.3 65.5 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 48 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 72 -0.1 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 96 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 120 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.7 168 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 192 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 -0.1 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.6 240 -0.1 -0.1 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 96 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 120 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 144 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 168 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 192 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 216 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 240 -0.1 -0.1 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 1.9 1.9 48 -0.2 -0.2 2.6 2.6 72 -0.2 -0.2 3.1 3.0 96 -0.3 -0.3 3.4 3.3 120 -0.3 -0.3 3.6 3.6 144 -0.3 -0.3 3.9 3.8 168 -0.4 -0.4 4.1 4.0 192 -0.4 -0.4 4.3 4.3 216 -0.3 -0.4 4.6 4.6 240 -0.3 -0.4 4.8 4.8 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 4.3 4.3 48 -0.4 -0.4 5.8 5.8 72 -0.5 -0.5 6.7 6.8 96 -0.6 -0.6 7.5 7.6 120 -0.8 -0.8 8.3 8.3 144 -0.8 -0.9 9.1 9.1 168 -0.9 -1.0 9.8 9.8 192 -1.0 -1.1 10.3 10.4 216 -1.0 -1.1 11.1 11.1 240 -1.1 -1.1 11.9 11.7 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 20.7 21.2 48 -0.1 -0.1 2.0 2.1 1.0 1.0 27.7 28.6 72 -0.1 -0.1 2.7 2.8 1.0 1.0 34.1 35.0 96 -0.1 -0.1 3.6 3.7 0.9 0.9 40.8 41.4 120 0.0 0.0 4.6 4.6 0.9 0.9 46.9 47.8 144 0.1 0.1 5.6 5.6 0.9 0.9 52.6 53.0 168 0.1 0.1 6.5 6.4 0.8 0.8 58.0 57.6 192 0.2 0.2 7.4 7.0 0.8 0.8 62.0 60.7 216 0.4 0.4 7.9 7.5 0.7 0.7 64.3 63.1 240 0.6 0.6 8.5 8.1 0.7 0.7 66.8 65.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.3 1.2 10.2 10.7 1.0 1.0 14.3 14.5 48 1.5 1.7 17.2 17.9 1.0 1.0 20.5 20.8 72 1.7 1.9 25.8 26.0 1.0 1.0 26.3 26.4 96 2.4 2.3 36.1 35.8 1.0 1.0 32.1 32.2 120 3.5 3.4 47.2 47.2 0.9 0.9 37.6 38.1 144 4.0 4.2 59.0 58.8 0.9 0.9 43.1 43.2 168 4.6 4.4 70.4 68.9 0.9 0.9 48.1 47.3 192 6.0 5.3 81.5 77.1 0.8 0.8 52.0 50.5 216 7.1 6.5 89.9 84.6 0.8 0.8 55.0 53.0 240 8.1 7.5 97.0 92.4 0.7 0.7 57.4 55.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.7 3.8 12.9 13.4 1.0 1.0 11.7 11.8 48 6.1 6.6 22.8 23.4 1.0 1.0 17.4 17.5 72 7.7 8.2 35.0 35.4 1.0 1.0 23.1 23.2 96 9.2 9.4 49.6 49.5 1.0 1.0 29.1 29.0 120 10.6 10.4 64.7 65.2 0.9 0.9 34.4 34.9 144 11.0 11.2 81.7 80.7 0.9 0.9 40.2 40.0 168 10.9 11.1 98.6 96.8 0.9 0.9 45.2 44.5 192 11.9 11.4 113.7 109.2 0.8 0.8 49.0 47.8 216 10.3 10.3 126.2 119.3 0.8 0.8 52.0 50.3 240 9.3 9.9 136.2 130.3 0.7 0.7 54.6 53.0 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 96 0.3 0.3 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 120 0.3 0.3 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.9 144 0.3 0.3 2.7 2.7 0.8 0.8 168 0.3 0.3 3.1 3.1 0.8 0.8 192 0.3 0.3 3.4 3.4 0.8 0.8 216 0.3 0.3 3.7 3.6 0.7 0.7 240 0.2 0.2 3.9 3.8 0.7 0.7 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 72 0.2 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.4 0.8 0.8 144 0.1 0.1 2.7 2.7 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.1 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.8 192 -0.1 0.0 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 216 -0.3 -0.2 3.3 3.2 0.7 0.7 240 -0.4 -0.4 3.5 3.4 0.7 0.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 3.6 3.6 48 -0.3 -0.3 5.1 5.1 72 -0.4 -0.4 6.4 6.4 96 -0.5 -0.5 7.8 7.8 120 -0.6 -0.6 9.2 9.2 144 -0.7 -0.7 10.7 10.6 168 -0.8 -0.8 11.9 11.7 192 -0.9 -0.9 13.0 12.5 216 -1.0 -1.0 13.8 13.2 240 -1.1 -1.0 14.4 14.0 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 4.8 4.8 48 -0.3 -0.3 6.9 6.9 72 -0.4 -0.4 9.0 9.0 96 -0.6 -0.6 11.4 11.2 120 -0.7 -0.9 13.6 13.7 144 -0.9 -1.0 16.0 15.8 168 -1.1 -1.0 18.2 17.8 192 -1.1 -1.1 19.8 19.2 216 -1.3 -1.2 21.0 20.3 240 -1.4 -1.3 22.2 21.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -1.08 9.47 9.74 48 -0.17 -2.08 14.37 14.52 72 -1.88 -1.74 22.28 20.98 96 -0.94 -0.20 29.26 27.20 120 -3.47 -1.39 41.71 40.31 144 -6.32 -6.83 49.76 50.10 168 -7.61 -9.30 56.84 57.11 192 -8.89 -9.02 60.42 62.35 216 -6.64 -10.28 61.73 63.97 240 -6.28 -10.70 72.20 70.32 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.98 12.16 12.15 48 -0.55 -2.52 20.57 22.02 72 -1.80 -1.88 34.56 31.95 96 -1.08 -1.32 48.29 45.53 120 -4.86 -3.05 63.10 60.66 144 -12.41 -9.44 80.58 78.00 168 -16.98 -14.63 96.45 93.19 192 -15.48 -15.34 103.26 111.40 216 -16.12 -18.41 110.39 114.08 240 -14.41 -19.12 121.65 118.35 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.93 2.67 16.16 14.85 48 5.78 2.36 29.40 27.64 72 6.07 4.83 47.36 43.47 96 7.82 6.69 66.81 61.46 120 3.55 6.89 86.13 80.91 144 -6.77 -4.73 108.88 106.43 168 -15.70 -9.70 133.87 127.32 192 -12.28 -11.73 144.11 151.64 216 -11.53 -12.43 150.08 159.99 240 -10.48 -19.83 170.47 164.42 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.14 1.63 1.66 48 0.08 0.02 1.95 1.99 72 -0.03 -0.07 2.33 2.40 96 -0.09 -0.15 2.99 2.96 120 -0.27 -0.16 3.66 3.61 144 -0.51 -0.37 4.36 4.34 168 -0.72 -0.54 5.05 4.88 192 -0.65 -0.43 5.53 5.67 216 -0.83 -0.76 5.92 6.09 240 -0.93 -0.82 6.38 6.31 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.12 1.06 1.05 48 0.18 0.17 1.57 1.61 72 0.28 0.25 2.20 2.13 96 0.28 0.26 2.73 2.74 120 0.25 0.32 3.31 3.23 144 -0.06 0.14 3.91 3.91 168 -0.13 -0.10 4.58 4.50 192 -0.09 -0.02 4.82 5.18 216 -0.21 -0.15 5.23 5.33 240 -0.23 -0.11 5.53 5.31 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.47 0.36 1.23 1.20 48 0.41 0.34 1.57 1.65 72 0.44 0.34 2.04 2.16 96 0.48 0.42 2.55 2.52 120 0.42 0.37 2.92 2.89 144 0.51 0.53 3.21 3.26 168 0.44 0.46 3.37 3.44 192 0.49 0.47 3.56 3.69 216 0.39 0.35 3.59 3.76 240 0.27 0.32 3.51 3.74 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.74 4.21 4.14 48 -0.82 -0.84 5.04 4.90 72 -0.94 -0.90 6.18 6.37 96 -1.03 -1.20 7.35 7.24 120 -1.30 -1.37 9.22 9.11 144 -1.08 -1.24 10.35 10.18 168 -0.91 -0.72 11.51 11.31 192 -0.76 -1.01 11.68 11.85 216 -0.91 -0.87 11.52 11.97 240 -0.78 -0.67 12.29 12.54 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.89 4.87 4.96 48 -1.04 -1.04 6.86 6.91 72 -1.23 -1.30 9.08 8.83 96 -1.50 -1.27 11.33 11.03 120 -1.37 -1.44 13.37 13.20 144 -1.13 -1.23 15.69 15.28 168 -0.87 -0.52 17.68 17.35 192 -1.05 -0.61 18.24 18.24 216 -1.25 -0.85 18.95 19.42 240 -1.42 -0.90 19.78 19.65 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.85 6.07 6.13 48 -1.00 -1.02 8.76 8.99 72 -1.24 -1.32 12.11 12.07 96 -1.26 -1.00 15.28 15.01 120 -1.12 -1.27 18.57 18.38 144 -0.87 -1.35 22.01 21.64 168 -0.91 -0.32 25.54 24.91 192 0.02 -0.23 26.53 27.46 216 -0.49 -0.64 28.09 28.74 240 -1.32 -0.66 28.90 29.17 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -2.32 10.39 10.31 48 -0.86 -2.62 15.94 14.98 72 4.04 3.79 20.81 21.36 96 11.40 9.80 30.37 30.21 120 12.68 16.58 41.73 42.91 144 22.37 22.40 64.79 51.93 168 19.67 22.85 67.16 66.25 192 22.70 23.40 77.28 74.38 216 21.06 30.72 87.57 89.53 240 20.35 37.58 94.02 98.63 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.31 -2.45 13.53 12.94 48 -1.05 -3.02 20.36 19.78 72 2.19 3.70 26.98 27.93 96 9.13 11.42 39.51 42.80 120 18.23 20.10 58.83 59.94 144 24.50 27.19 88.30 75.24 168 22.74 26.23 96.47 92.03 192 22.26 20.18 107.52 105.97 216 26.69 30.60 127.57 126.28 240 27.35 43.78 139.49 146.70 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.70 1.82 15.82 15.56 48 7.57 4.72 26.51 24.51 72 12.52 14.86 37.81 40.58 96 24.73 28.24 58.76 67.92 120 36.78 43.08 88.60 90.35 144 46.18 49.12 120.14 105.38 168 37.85 44.48 139.28 131.20 192 32.60 35.31 152.23 147.94 216 43.99 43.00 157.73 175.42 240 43.41 64.03 161.25 164.16 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.16 1.18 1.24 48 0.13 0.12 1.43 1.46 72 0.02 0.11 1.64 1.69 96 -0.01 0.16 1.96 2.01 120 0.17 0.12 2.46 2.39 144 0.20 0.40 3.07 2.82 168 0.04 0.24 3.23 3.11 192 -0.26 -0.11 3.42 3.43 216 0.04 -0.40 3.99 3.88 240 0.06 -0.13 4.12 4.46 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.19 1.02 0.95 48 0.35 0.28 1.36 1.33 72 0.37 0.40 1.80 1.76 96 0.54 0.60 2.21 2.45 120 1.06 0.92 3.24 3.04 144 0.93 1.06 3.99 3.52 168 0.91 0.84 4.30 4.00 192 0.51 0.68 4.38 4.43 216 1.04 0.84 5.29 5.17 240 1.07 1.23 5.78 5.79 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.35 0.41 1.15 1.13 48 0.33 0.38 1.46 1.41 72 0.39 0.43 1.75 1.79 96 0.41 0.40 2.13 2.13 120 0.53 0.58 2.63 2.48 144 0.30 0.34 2.72 2.69 168 -0.26 0.09 2.87 2.75 192 -0.34 -0.01 3.01 3.00 216 -0.49 -0.29 3.06 3.20 240 -0.32 -0.34 3.23 3.31 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.02 4.41 4.39 48 -0.05 -0.11 5.54 5.03 72 -0.06 0.00 6.12 6.29 96 -0.05 -0.14 7.28 7.08 120 0.38 -0.21 9.19 8.63 144 -0.30 -0.42 10.49 9.72 168 -0.05 -0.66 11.11 10.51 192 -0.87 -1.05 11.46 10.99 216 -1.28 -1.83 12.18 11.88 240 -1.49 -1.61 12.87 12.95 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.28 5.18 5.06 48 -0.22 -0.25 6.62 6.30 72 -0.38 -0.37 8.10 7.81 96 0.00 -0.22 9.71 9.65 120 0.38 -0.19 12.52 12.11 144 -0.56 -0.22 15.06 13.91 168 -0.17 -0.64 16.64 15.72 192 -0.48 -0.74 17.51 17.37 216 -1.28 -1.65 18.80 18.86 240 -1.58 -1.48 20.15 20.10 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.37 5.71 5.42 48 -0.08 -0.37 7.59 7.46 72 -0.21 -0.43 9.67 9.82 96 0.58 0.16 12.65 13.94 120 0.41 0.17 16.27 16.88 144 -0.31 -0.82 20.99 19.29 168 -0.59 -0.83 23.64 22.86 192 -0.85 -1.01 26.57 25.88 216 -1.18 -2.06 29.31 28.96 240 -2.20 -1.45 30.26 29.96 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.36 10.08 9.18 48 2.58 2.06 12.08 10.88 72 4.82 3.48 15.60 13.93 96 5.52 4.19 18.55 17.77 120 4.96 3.26 24.44 23.35 144 5.59 1.95 30.84 28.86 168 5.16 1.89 35.09 35.30 192 4.05 2.71 38.05 39.09 216 4.17 3.91 43.73 41.83 240 6.12 1.85 47.95 46.85 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.58 -0.25 14.55 14.11 48 2.44 1.06 17.46 16.94 72 4.54 2.42 22.75 22.21 96 4.51 3.07 28.84 28.08 120 4.50 2.20 37.15 36.34 144 5.93 3.83 46.41 44.05 168 8.11 4.31 54.43 53.36 192 9.64 6.54 63.46 62.28 216 11.33 9.78 72.27 67.10 240 13.08 8.46 78.57 71.88 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -1.16 19.59 18.60 48 2.60 1.43 22.19 22.24 72 5.03 3.20 29.35 28.64 96 4.21 3.18 37.49 35.84 120 4.89 2.44 46.93 46.10 144 6.12 5.84 58.63 55.27 168 10.92 6.74 70.74 70.32 192 12.25 9.42 86.57 85.88 216 16.17 12.66 101.05 94.02 240 17.77 12.74 109.07 102.37 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.39 0.33 1.60 1.63 48 0.47 0.39 1.81 1.87 72 0.53 0.44 2.00 2.07 96 0.55 0.44 2.23 2.30 120 0.57 0.48 2.54 2.58 144 0.61 0.54 2.99 2.86 168 0.73 0.70 3.42 3.25 192 0.69 0.85 3.76 3.68 216 0.73 0.78 4.07 3.86 240 0.82 0.88 4.39 4.27 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.08 1.11 1.15 48 0.02 -0.05 1.30 1.36 72 0.05 -0.02 1.56 1.62 96 0.04 -0.01 1.85 1.89 120 0.08 -0.04 2.22 2.28 144 0.25 0.26 2.58 2.58 168 0.49 0.34 2.94 2.99 192 0.53 0.37 3.44 3.40 216 0.71 0.46 3.97 3.72 240 0.62 0.47 4.13 4.04 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 0.07 1.19 1.22 48 -0.01 0.04 1.43 1.41 72 -0.12 -0.04 1.68 1.71 96 -0.25 -0.16 1.97 2.00 120 -0.39 -0.28 2.39 2.30 144 -0.58 -0.47 2.69 2.59 168 -0.73 -0.66 2.99 3.03 192 -0.76 -0.73 3.22 3.24 216 -1.05 -1.02 3.44 3.46 240 -1.11 -1.00 3.74 3.49 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.54 3.48 3.50 48 -0.77 -0.67 3.96 3.86 72 -0.91 -0.80 4.47 4.44 96 -0.93 -0.85 4.89 4.95 120 -1.07 -0.97 5.63 5.54 144 -0.92 -0.86 6.47 6.19 168 -0.65 -0.82 6.98 6.79 192 -0.50 -0.65 7.52 7.39 216 -0.56 -0.56 7.90 7.91 240 -0.65 -0.54 8.18 8.27 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.62 4.90 4.83 48 -0.77 -0.76 5.68 5.80 72 -0.73 -0.90 6.88 6.70 96 -0.79 -1.09 8.06 7.88 120 -1.01 -1.20 9.36 9.11 144 -1.11 -1.25 10.58 10.22 168 -1.11 -1.26 11.55 11.38 192 -1.24 -1.30 12.57 12.32 216 -1.59 -1.49 13.11 13.02 240 -1.58 -1.53 13.78 13.44 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -0.86 4.87 4.74 48 -1.29 -1.13 5.69 5.78 72 -1.39 -1.39 7.01 6.99 96 -1.48 -1.60 8.57 8.52 120 -1.78 -1.89 10.15 9.84 144 -2.06 -1.98 11.96 11.59 168 -2.03 -2.09 13.83 13.63 192 -2.26 -2.05 15.63 15.42 216 -2.64 -2.28 17.19 16.68 240 -2.65 -2.12 17.86 18.12 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.65 -3.56 7.74 8.38 48 -2.19 -0.71 9.47 10.22 72 -2.13 -0.82 12.20 12.27 96 -2.19 -0.95 14.95 17.20 120 -0.71 0.20 17.02 21.19 144 0.65 1.09 22.15 27.36 168 0.27 2.71 26.91 33.55 192 0.66 3.23 29.88 32.65 216 0.63 5.66 35.74 41.32 240 0.39 4.07 38.99 48.45 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.91 -6.96 10.98 11.86 48 -4.67 -4.74 12.86 13.48 72 -5.02 -4.33 16.82 16.45 96 -4.80 -5.51 20.18 22.89 120 -4.37 -4.13 22.85 30.55 144 -3.07 -4.42 30.03 41.30 168 -2.67 -4.54 37.47 50.18 192 -2.99 -2.89 39.35 47.61 216 -2.28 1.06 49.43 54.06 240 -1.35 0.12 55.55 65.63 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.23 -3.53 13.48 14.79 48 1.79 1.39 19.71 18.71 72 1.46 2.10 25.71 23.35 96 2.01 -0.08 32.59 35.26 120 1.89 0.00 38.41 49.28 144 2.40 -2.26 46.59 61.54 168 2.54 0.95 60.57 75.56 192 1.79 1.62 64.00 78.72 216 1.03 5.00 74.16 88.18 240 2.58 4.83 88.08 99.88 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.13 1.23 1.16 48 -0.10 -0.17 1.41 1.26 72 -0.10 -0.15 1.59 1.46 96 -0.01 -0.23 1.85 1.70 120 -0.02 -0.18 2.02 2.06 144 -0.01 -0.23 2.19 2.42 168 -0.06 -0.22 2.65 2.80 192 -0.07 -0.15 2.98 2.86 216 0.15 -0.10 3.34 2.81 240 0.18 0.00 3.73 3.53 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.09 0.89 0.95 48 -0.03 -0.06 1.04 1.00 72 0.01 0.01 1.24 1.16 96 -0.01 -0.07 1.36 1.36 120 -0.08 -0.06 1.56 1.78 144 -0.10 -0.23 1.76 2.03 168 -0.08 -0.21 2.11 2.35 192 -0.12 -0.15 2.21 2.29 216 -0.06 -0.01 2.24 2.58 240 -0.03 0.00 2.58 2.75 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.54 0.49 1.19 1.11 48 0.60 0.59 1.39 1.42 72 0.52 0.57 1.58 1.52 96 0.48 0.47 1.75 1.75 120 0.41 0.31 1.85 1.79 144 0.40 0.25 2.02 2.11 168 0.33 0.44 2.21 2.36 192 0.29 0.23 2.26 2.49 216 0.12 -0.05 2.35 2.60 240 0.11 0.08 2.52 2.77 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.09 4.10 3.89 48 -0.36 -0.20 4.78 4.49 72 -0.51 -0.39 5.38 5.20 96 -0.48 -0.33 6.00 5.71 120 -0.54 -0.35 6.39 6.36 144 -0.62 -0.35 7.14 7.19 168 -0.59 -0.39 7.82 7.77 192 -0.83 -0.49 8.29 7.98 216 -1.09 -0.85 8.77 7.89 240 -0.80 -0.76 9.06 8.94 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.55 4.35 4.40 48 -0.72 -0.85 5.08 5.31 72 -0.94 -0.96 5.89 5.89 96 -1.18 -1.02 6.66 6.47 120 -1.28 -1.19 7.67 7.48 144 -1.31 -1.23 8.60 9.10 168 -1.18 -1.33 9.77 9.55 192 -0.90 -1.28 10.88 10.49 216 -0.73 -1.46 11.58 10.76 240 -0.37 -1.43 12.09 11.86 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -1.08 6.22 6.27 48 -1.15 -1.60 7.93 7.90 72 -1.68 -1.89 9.23 9.34 96 -1.83 -1.86 11.03 11.23 120 -1.79 -2.42 13.09 12.74 144 -1.96 -2.72 14.57 14.92 168 -2.02 -2.28 16.81 17.20 192 -1.94 -2.98 18.21 18.10 216 -1.49 -3.07 19.00 18.14 240 -1.50 -2.81 19.90 20.10 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.02 -7.41 11.13 11.27 48 -5.03 -6.37 10.70 11.15 72 -5.11 -6.82 10.99 12.02 96 -5.44 -6.77 11.98 12.33 120 -6.08 -7.34 12.93 13.10 144 -5.92 -8.36 13.92 14.57 168 -6.59 -8.79 14.69 15.22 192 -6.83 -9.55 15.59 16.38 216 -8.74 -11.53 17.08 17.84 240 -8.44 -12.32 18.17 19.00 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.27 -10.11 13.98 13.98 48 -8.37 -8.99 13.69 13.80 72 -8.76 -9.49 14.55 14.50 96 -9.00 -9.24 15.20 14.72 120 -9.45 -10.07 15.88 15.67 144 -9.67 -10.72 16.68 16.80 168 -10.34 -10.71 17.49 17.50 192 -10.82 -11.86 18.47 18.61 216 -12.50 -13.50 20.51 20.38 240 -12.67 -14.18 20.80 21.54 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.04 -6.56 16.01 14.77 48 -5.43 -3.46 15.23 14.50 72 -5.69 -3.31 16.05 15.47 96 -5.90 -2.79 17.34 17.19 120 -6.65 -3.30 19.07 18.83 144 -7.44 -4.02 20.51 20.15 168 -8.69 -4.26 22.18 22.23 192 -9.62 -5.48 23.73 23.54 216 -13.69 -9.17 27.11 26.27 240 -14.78 -10.62 28.65 27.81 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.06 1.03 0.96 48 0.02 -0.05 1.09 1.00 72 0.03 -0.03 1.13 1.03 96 0.05 -0.04 1.16 1.06 120 0.05 -0.01 1.19 1.09 144 0.06 0.00 1.22 1.12 168 0.05 -0.02 1.25 1.16 192 0.04 -0.02 1.28 1.18 216 0.00 -0.10 1.33 1.21 240 0.00 -0.07 1.32 1.27 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.16 0.84 0.84 48 -0.12 -0.10 0.86 0.85 72 -0.13 -0.10 0.91 0.88 96 -0.13 -0.07 0.97 0.93 120 -0.14 -0.07 1.03 0.98 144 -0.18 -0.08 1.11 1.04 168 -0.22 -0.07 1.16 1.10 192 -0.27 -0.09 1.20 1.14 216 -0.26 -0.05 1.23 1.17 240 -0.28 -0.04 1.25 1.20 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.39 0.43 0.82 0.85 48 0.47 0.56 0.89 0.94 72 0.47 0.61 0.95 1.01 96 0.45 0.58 0.98 1.03 120 0.42 0.60 1.02 1.13 144 0.44 0.62 1.07 1.20 168 0.39 0.61 1.11 1.25 192 0.37 0.59 1.15 1.29 216 0.08 0.31 1.12 1.25 240 -0.01 0.23 1.18 1.25 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.25 3.85 3.69 48 -0.53 -0.39 4.30 3.94 72 -0.60 -0.50 4.58 4.26 96 -0.62 -0.56 4.76 4.46 120 -0.67 -0.54 4.95 4.67 144 -0.75 -0.61 5.06 4.82 168 -0.87 -0.66 5.25 5.06 192 -0.89 -0.70 5.52 5.29 216 -0.74 -0.51 5.87 5.57 240 -0.67 -0.51 5.97 5.77 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.65 4.10 4.14 48 -0.76 -0.72 4.51 4.54 72 -0.89 -0.77 4.88 4.77 96 -0.98 -0.89 5.15 5.14 120 -1.04 -0.84 5.56 5.52 144 -1.14 -0.84 6.03 5.86 168 -1.22 -0.89 6.37 6.26 192 -1.22 -0.79 6.68 6.76 216 -1.40 -0.92 6.93 7.07 240 -1.38 -0.90 7.24 7.34 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.58 5.79 6.00 48 -0.84 -0.93 6.43 6.75 72 -1.00 -1.21 7.01 7.44 96 -1.09 -1.20 7.54 8.15 120 -1.17 -1.41 8.12 8.81 144 -1.21 -1.48 8.47 9.32 168 -1.25 -1.53 9.19 9.96 192 -1.32 -1.61 9.52 10.41 216 -1.34 -1.57 9.73 11.13 240 -1.49 -1.40 10.10 11.46 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -1.18 10.87 10.42 48 -0.28 -1.23 16.29 16.02 72 1.00 0.67 22.97 22.38 96 3.36 2.65 30.62 30.63 120 3.43 4.19 40.53 42.60 144 5.26 3.82 54.48 51.97 168 4.27 3.42 61.17 64.20 192 3.26 3.04 67.42 68.63 216 3.68 5.10 76.37 78.87 240 3.99 5.50 84.09 86.62 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.80 14.55 13.56 48 -0.30 -1.28 21.33 21.41 72 0.59 0.40 31.36 31.02 96 2.86 2.96 43.50 44.04 120 4.40 5.23 57.16 58.68 144 5.16 5.46 78.36 75.71 168 4.83 3.32 91.80 90.85 192 4.17 3.55 100.45 103.50 216 5.59 5.77 113.70 114.81 240 6.20 6.21 124.64 126.50 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.24 1.36 17.87 16.46 48 4.42 2.66 27.89 26.44 72 6.41 5.97 41.58 40.82 96 10.03 10.44 59.16 59.77 120 14.02 14.06 79.07 79.12 144 13.19 13.71 106.58 101.76 168 11.41 10.12 128.03 123.58 192 10.57 10.13 140.50 143.75 216 12.11 9.10 160.92 159.59 240 11.73 13.24 174.40 176.23 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.19 1.52 1.50 48 0.21 0.17 1.79 1.79 72 0.15 0.16 2.11 2.18 96 0.15 0.14 2.57 2.58 120 0.12 0.16 3.10 3.06 144 0.12 0.19 3.65 3.63 168 0.08 0.11 4.10 4.10 192 0.07 0.11 4.54 4.62 216 0.03 -0.11 4.90 5.01 240 -0.01 0.03 5.22 5.38 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.12 1.08 1.06 48 0.18 0.15 1.50 1.50 72 0.23 0.23 1.97 1.94 96 0.31 0.32 2.46 2.48 120 0.43 0.38 3.07 3.00 144 0.35 0.43 3.74 3.62 168 0.41 0.35 4.30 4.16 192 0.41 0.36 4.58 4.75 216 0.40 0.29 5.08 5.07 240 0.46 0.44 5.43 5.39 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.27 1.20 1.19 48 0.24 0.22 1.49 1.54 72 0.22 0.21 1.91 1.99 96 0.19 0.18 2.32 2.36 120 0.14 0.10 2.72 2.70 144 0.05 0.05 3.00 3.01 168 -0.15 -0.05 3.22 3.25 192 -0.19 -0.11 3.42 3.44 216 -0.30 -0.31 3.48 3.59 240 -0.41 -0.33 3.62 3.65 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.40 4.22 4.20 48 -0.47 -0.44 5.08 5.03 72 -0.53 -0.51 6.05 6.26 96 -0.54 -0.55 7.15 7.22 120 -0.58 -0.65 8.59 8.66 144 -0.64 -0.60 9.71 9.71 168 -0.54 -0.57 10.57 10.49 192 -0.68 -0.80 11.02 10.98 216 -0.93 -1.05 11.16 11.43 240 -1.02 -1.08 11.91 12.21 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.57 4.86 4.89 48 -0.56 -0.60 6.50 6.47 72 -0.67 -0.68 8.26 8.18 96 -0.67 -0.63 10.17 9.97 120 -0.51 -0.70 12.05 11.93 144 -0.76 -0.62 14.11 13.73 168 -0.59 -0.56 15.80 15.45 192 -0.81 -0.56 16.64 16.68 216 -1.28 -1.01 17.07 17.60 240 -1.39 -1.07 18.35 18.48 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.64 5.53 5.41 48 -0.62 -0.70 7.57 7.62 72 -0.73 -0.72 10.06 10.15 96 -0.61 -0.59 12.78 13.05 120 -0.50 -0.64 15.45 15.59 144 -0.66 -0.85 18.96 18.36 168 -0.71 -0.56 21.90 21.38 192 -0.65 -0.56 23.39 23.58 216 -0.91 -0.97 24.83 25.55 240 -1.44 -1.12 26.38 26.60 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.50 -4.04 8.54 10.72 48 -2.97 -4.08 11.04 13.37 72 -3.20 -5.00 14.55 16.68 96 -3.88 -5.04 18.37 20.52 120 -3.46 -5.39 22.36 25.01 144 -2.88 -5.47 28.92 30.68 168 -2.86 -5.44 33.95 36.51 192 -2.45 -4.85 38.50 40.24 216 -1.94 -5.90 43.85 44.02 240 -2.56 -7.08 47.86 48.22 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.67 -6.46 12.50 13.02 48 -5.47 -6.06 15.55 17.24 72 -5.61 -7.04 20.43 21.55 96 -5.46 -6.67 25.86 28.21 120 -5.34 -6.77 31.65 35.20 144 -4.59 -7.41 40.09 43.17 168 -2.31 -4.78 48.21 52.22 192 -1.73 -5.49 54.83 56.33 216 -1.08 -6.45 61.77 62.25 240 -0.69 -5.82 67.11 67.18 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.07 -1.67 15.06 15.33 48 1.21 1.08 21.58 21.70 72 2.03 2.22 29.32 29.95 96 2.86 3.02 38.31 38.43 120 3.52 4.28 46.37 51.23 144 4.21 5.00 58.16 60.30 168 6.05 8.08 71.80 72.71 192 9.22 6.33 82.66 84.01 216 8.98 4.35 90.88 92.96 240 11.97 4.84 102.02 104.54 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.25 1.39 1.45 48 -0.33 -0.34 1.58 1.64 72 -0.35 -0.40 1.78 1.81 96 -0.26 -0.45 2.03 2.02 120 -0.24 -0.43 2.27 2.26 144 -0.28 -0.49 2.44 2.60 168 -0.27 -0.42 2.89 2.81 192 -0.22 -0.32 3.23 2.95 216 -0.24 -0.38 3.53 3.08 240 -0.18 -0.20 3.89 3.61 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.05 0.97 0.99 48 0.00 0.10 1.14 1.21 72 0.09 0.17 1.35 1.45 96 0.10 0.19 1.61 1.65 120 0.08 0.26 1.84 2.02 144 0.11 0.26 2.04 2.30 168 0.22 0.37 2.44 2.59 192 0.29 0.32 2.63 2.71 216 0.32 0.37 2.72 2.88 240 0.33 0.38 3.04 3.21 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.50 0.59 1.25 1.22 48 0.55 0.68 1.50 1.50 72 0.50 0.71 1.75 1.74 96 0.46 0.65 1.98 1.96 120 0.48 0.62 2.15 2.18 144 0.48 0.58 2.39 2.42 168 0.42 0.56 2.62 2.61 192 0.42 0.46 2.70 2.75 216 0.26 0.32 2.77 2.85 240 0.32 0.29 2.96 3.05 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.51 4.24 4.27 48 -0.37 -0.61 4.66 4.85 72 -0.54 -0.70 5.26 5.44 96 -0.60 -0.66 5.96 5.89 120 -0.64 -0.82 6.61 6.56 144 -0.67 -0.60 7.26 7.33 168 -0.58 -0.77 8.26 8.00 192 -0.83 -0.85 8.68 8.11 216 -1.27 -1.24 9.14 8.29 240 -1.02 -1.20 9.56 8.90 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.66 4.43 4.59 48 -0.70 -0.79 5.29 5.35 72 -0.80 -0.84 6.02 6.23 96 -0.97 -0.89 6.98 7.02 120 -1.05 -0.90 8.16 8.26 144 -0.93 -0.98 9.09 9.41 168 -0.93 -1.21 10.39 10.04 192 -0.94 -1.25 11.40 10.83 216 -0.98 -1.44 12.02 11.07 240 -0.82 -1.42 12.58 11.81 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.69 6.32 6.16 48 -1.26 -1.18 8.08 7.67 72 -1.48 -1.30 9.61 9.30 96 -1.61 -1.44 11.55 10.98 120 -1.42 -1.50 13.59 13.33 144 -1.38 -1.53 15.38 15.43 168 -1.49 -1.56 17.51 16.83 192 -1.63 -1.94 19.07 17.86 216 -1.48 -1.63 19.87 18.48 240 -1.43 -1.86 20.71 19.83