VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 -0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 20.4 20.7 48 -0.1 -0.1 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 28.0 28.5 72 -0.1 -0.1 2.2 2.2 1.0 1.0 35.5 35.7 96 -0.1 -0.1 3.2 3.1 0.9 0.9 44.0 43.4 120 -0.1 -0.2 4.4 4.2 0.9 0.9 52.3 51.3 144 -0.1 -0.2 5.6 5.4 0.8 0.8 60.4 59.4 168 -0.2 -0.3 6.7 6.5 0.8 0.8 66.2 66.3 192 -0.2 -0.4 7.7 7.3 0.7 0.7 71.3 70.5 216 -0.3 -0.4 8.5 8.1 0.6 0.7 75.8 75.2 240 -0.3 -0.5 8.8 8.8 0.6 0.6 78.8 78.4 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.6 0.4 7.7 7.7 1.0 1.0 14.0 14.1 48 0.6 0.2 13.9 13.7 1.0 1.0 20.8 20.7 72 0.8 0.5 21.4 21.0 1.0 1.0 27.4 27.3 96 0.8 0.6 32.4 31.0 0.9 1.0 35.3 34.3 120 0.6 0.3 44.7 42.8 0.9 0.9 42.6 41.6 144 0.5 0.0 58.0 55.8 0.9 0.9 50.0 48.7 168 0.5 0.1 70.4 68.9 0.8 0.8 55.5 54.9 192 0.1 0.0 82.9 80.7 0.7 0.7 60.9 60.1 216 0.4 0.2 93.1 90.3 0.7 0.7 65.3 64.2 240 0.5 0.3 98.4 98.1 0.6 0.6 67.8 67.3 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.1 3.7 10.8 10.6 1.0 1.0 11.3 11.3 48 6.5 6.0 19.8 19.6 1.0 1.0 17.1 17.1 72 7.8 7.6 31.0 30.2 1.0 1.0 23.4 23.1 96 8.4 8.2 45.8 44.9 1.0 1.0 30.4 29.9 120 8.5 8.0 63.3 61.5 0.9 0.9 37.5 36.6 144 8.5 8.1 82.4 80.6 0.9 0.9 44.4 43.6 168 8.8 8.9 101.1 99.3 0.8 0.8 50.1 49.6 192 8.7 9.9 120.1 117.8 0.8 0.8 55.8 55.0 216 8.1 9.0 135.5 132.4 0.7 0.7 59.6 59.1 240 6.8 8.1 143.9 142.6 0.6 0.7 62.1 62.0 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 96 0.2 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 120 0.3 0.3 2.3 2.2 0.9 0.9 144 0.3 0.3 2.8 2.8 0.8 0.8 168 0.3 0.4 3.2 3.2 0.8 0.8 192 0.4 0.4 3.7 3.6 0.7 0.7 216 0.3 0.4 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 240 0.3 0.4 4.3 4.2 0.6 0.6 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 72 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.9 96 -0.1 -0.1 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.9 120 -0.2 -0.2 2.5 2.5 0.8 0.8 144 -0.2 -0.3 2.8 2.8 0.8 0.8 168 -0.3 -0.3 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 192 -0.4 -0.3 3.4 3.3 0.7 0.7 216 -0.5 -0.5 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 240 -0.6 -0.6 3.7 3.6 0.6 0.6 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.1 3.1 48 -0.2 -0.2 4.5 4.5 72 -0.3 -0.3 5.9 5.8 96 -0.5 -0.4 7.5 7.3 120 -0.5 -0.5 9.1 8.9 144 -0.6 -0.6 10.8 10.6 168 -0.6 -0.6 12.1 12.1 192 -0.5 -0.5 13.5 13.4 216 -0.5 -0.5 14.7 14.4 240 -0.6 -0.5 15.3 15.2 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.2 4.3 4.3 48 -0.5 -0.5 6.4 6.3 72 -0.7 -0.7 8.6 8.5 96 -1.0 -0.9 11.1 10.9 120 -1.1 -1.1 13.7 13.4 144 -1.2 -1.1 16.6 16.2 168 -1.2 -1.1 18.9 18.7 192 -1.1 -1.0 21.4 21.0 216 -1.1 -1.0 23.1 22.8 240 -1.1 -1.0 24.1 24.1 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.9 -1.1 3.8 3.9 0.9 0.9 34.9 34.9 48 -1.3 -1.6 5.6 6.1 0.9 0.9 42.2 42.5 72 -2.0 -2.3 6.8 7.3 0.9 0.8 45.9 46.7 96 -2.6 -2.7 8.1 8.4 0.8 0.8 49.0 50.0 120 -3.0 -3.1 9.4 9.4 0.8 0.8 52.0 52.5 144 -2.9 -3.1 10.3 10.4 0.8 0.8 54.6 54.8 168 -3.0 -2.5 10.9 11.1 0.8 0.8 57.5 57.5 192 -2.3 -1.9 11.5 11.6 0.8 0.8 59.9 59.8 216 -1.8 -1.7 12.2 12.5 0.7 0.7 64.4 64.8 240 -1.8 -1.6 13.2 13.6 0.7 0.7 66.6 66.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.2 3.6 6.7 6.6 0.9 0.9 32.5 31.8 48 4.0 4.7 9.6 9.8 0.9 0.9 39.9 39.4 72 3.7 4.5 11.4 11.5 0.9 0.9 44.7 43.9 96 3.3 4.1 13.5 13.4 0.9 0.9 49.0 48.2 120 3.0 3.8 15.6 15.5 0.9 0.9 53.0 52.5 144 3.1 3.9 17.5 17.6 0.8 0.8 56.9 56.1 168 3.5 4.8 19.1 19.1 0.8 0.8 60.3 59.2 192 4.6 5.8 21.0 20.9 0.8 0.8 63.1 62.0 216 3.7 5.2 22.4 22.8 0.7 0.7 66.3 65.6 240 2.6 4.5 24.1 24.7 0.7 0.7 68.9 67.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 48 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 72 -0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 96 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 120 -0.1 0.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 144 -0.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 192 0.0 -0.1 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.8 216 -0.1 -0.1 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 240 -0.1 -0.1 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 96 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 120 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 144 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 168 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 192 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 216 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 240 -0.1 -0.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 1.9 1.9 48 -0.2 -0.2 2.6 2.5 72 -0.3 -0.3 3.0 3.0 96 -0.3 -0.3 3.4 3.3 120 -0.3 -0.3 3.7 3.6 144 -0.3 -0.3 4.0 3.9 168 -0.3 -0.4 4.3 4.2 192 -0.3 -0.4 4.6 4.5 216 -0.3 -0.4 4.9 4.8 240 -0.4 -0.4 5.2 5.1 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.3 4.1 4.2 48 -0.5 -0.6 5.6 5.6 72 -0.7 -0.7 6.5 6.6 96 -0.8 -0.8 7.4 7.4 120 -1.0 -1.0 8.2 8.2 144 -1.1 -1.1 9.0 9.0 168 -1.2 -1.2 9.7 9.6 192 -1.3 -1.3 10.4 10.3 216 -1.3 -1.3 11.1 11.1 240 -1.4 -1.4 11.7 11.8 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 0.0 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.0 20.5 20.4 48 -0.1 0.0 2.5 2.4 1.0 1.0 28.0 27.9 72 -0.1 0.0 3.5 3.4 0.9 1.0 35.7 35.0 96 0.0 0.0 4.7 4.6 0.9 0.9 42.8 42.6 120 0.1 0.1 5.9 5.9 0.9 0.9 49.3 49.6 144 0.1 0.2 7.1 7.1 0.8 0.8 55.4 55.6 168 0.2 0.2 8.2 8.7 0.8 0.8 60.5 62.1 192 0.2 0.2 9.2 9.7 0.8 0.7 64.2 65.7 216 0.2 0.2 10.1 10.1 0.7 0.7 67.8 68.4 240 0.1 0.2 10.9 10.5 0.7 0.7 70.6 70.6 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.5 -0.1 11.3 11.3 1.0 1.0 14.2 14.3 48 -1.0 -0.4 20.0 19.3 1.0 1.0 20.8 20.7 72 -1.0 -0.6 30.7 29.1 1.0 1.0 27.3 27.0 96 -0.9 -0.5 42.5 42.1 0.9 0.9 33.7 33.6 120 -0.4 0.0 56.8 56.2 0.9 0.9 39.9 40.1 144 -0.7 0.3 71.0 71.3 0.9 0.9 45.6 45.9 168 -0.8 -0.4 84.7 89.0 0.8 0.8 50.5 51.9 192 -0.7 -0.4 97.2 102.4 0.8 0.8 54.8 55.7 216 -1.2 -0.9 107.3 109.4 0.8 0.7 58.5 58.6 240 -0.9 -1.3 116.8 115.8 0.7 0.7 61.1 60.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.8 2.2 13.9 13.9 1.0 1.0 11.1 11.1 48 2.8 3.5 25.5 24.5 1.0 1.0 16.8 16.5 72 3.3 3.9 40.4 38.2 1.0 1.0 22.7 22.4 96 3.5 3.8 55.8 55.5 0.9 0.9 28.4 28.5 120 3.5 4.4 75.7 74.0 0.9 0.9 34.5 34.4 144 2.8 4.4 95.1 95.1 0.9 0.9 40.1 40.3 168 2.3 3.7 114.1 118.4 0.8 0.8 44.9 45.9 192 2.9 3.6 131.7 138.7 0.8 0.8 49.1 50.1 216 1.2 1.8 146.6 149.3 0.7 0.7 52.7 53.0 240 1.8 -0.1 157.2 158.7 0.7 0.7 55.1 55.2 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 72 0.1 0.1 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.2 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 120 0.1 0.2 2.6 2.6 0.9 0.9 144 0.1 0.2 3.1 3.1 0.8 0.8 168 0.1 0.2 3.5 3.6 0.8 0.8 192 0.1 0.2 3.9 4.0 0.7 0.7 216 0.1 0.1 4.1 4.3 0.7 0.7 240 0.2 0.1 4.4 4.5 0.6 0.6 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 72 0.1 0.1 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.0 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.9 120 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.4 0.8 0.8 144 -0.1 -0.1 2.7 2.8 0.8 0.8 168 -0.1 -0.1 3.0 3.1 0.8 0.8 192 -0.1 -0.1 3.2 3.3 0.7 0.7 216 -0.2 -0.2 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.7 240 -0.3 -0.3 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 4.0 4.0 48 -0.1 -0.1 5.7 5.7 72 -0.2 -0.2 7.5 7.3 96 -0.3 -0.3 9.1 9.1 120 -0.3 -0.4 10.9 10.9 144 -0.4 -0.5 12.5 12.7 168 -0.4 -0.4 14.1 14.5 192 -0.4 -0.3 15.5 15.8 216 -0.4 -0.4 16.7 16.7 240 -0.5 -0.4 17.5 17.4 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 4.9 4.9 48 -0.1 -0.1 7.3 7.2 72 -0.2 -0.2 9.8 9.6 96 -0.3 -0.3 12.3 12.3 120 -0.3 -0.3 15.0 14.9 144 -0.3 -0.3 17.6 17.8 168 -0.3 -0.2 20.2 20.4 192 -0.2 -0.1 22.4 22.7 216 -0.2 -0.1 24.2 24.2 240 -0.3 -0.2 25.4 25.4 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.99 -2.76 8.40 8.14 48 -4.56 -4.91 12.54 12.73 72 -4.11 -5.98 16.55 17.97 96 -1.97 -2.56 24.48 25.06 120 -1.37 -0.37 32.53 32.52 144 -1.44 0.82 41.26 39.99 168 0.89 1.21 46.04 45.85 192 -4.09 0.12 56.27 55.07 216 -6.49 -2.68 63.72 61.60 240 -2.97 -6.61 66.15 62.09 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.48 -3.24 10.14 10.39 48 -3.28 -4.83 16.43 16.66 72 -2.73 -5.40 24.81 24.09 96 0.51 -1.65 36.00 35.11 120 2.16 2.34 46.99 46.85 144 3.30 5.40 60.70 58.32 168 6.91 6.96 70.41 71.24 192 3.93 6.35 84.65 84.97 216 0.39 2.65 101.78 96.65 240 2.99 2.61 108.15 101.81 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.96 2.05 14.23 13.33 48 6.23 3.85 23.77 23.10 72 7.42 5.00 39.85 34.91 96 11.34 9.61 56.89 53.06 120 13.81 14.41 72.97 70.70 144 17.13 18.97 94.54 89.35 168 20.20 20.94 106.24 111.05 192 22.51 24.71 134.41 130.52 216 18.00 21.85 156.91 148.60 240 20.06 17.61 166.16 155.20 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.13 1.34 1.31 48 -0.11 -0.16 1.62 1.54 72 -0.08 -0.17 1.93 1.86 96 -0.09 -0.21 2.29 2.13 120 -0.13 -0.18 2.67 2.55 144 -0.06 -0.12 3.19 3.18 168 -0.04 -0.05 3.61 3.72 192 0.01 -0.08 4.46 4.36 216 -0.06 -0.30 5.09 4.80 240 -0.04 -0.09 5.46 5.17 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.08 0.92 0.91 48 0.30 0.20 1.30 1.23 72 0.36 0.33 1.79 1.61 96 0.48 0.42 2.28 2.13 120 0.53 0.50 2.65 2.60 144 0.62 0.56 3.24 3.05 168 0.66 0.59 3.59 3.68 192 0.89 0.69 4.28 4.03 216 0.80 0.75 4.73 4.48 240 0.76 0.59 4.87 4.66 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.48 0.44 1.20 1.16 48 0.52 0.45 1.55 1.51 72 0.42 0.45 1.95 1.88 96 0.33 0.29 2.29 2.30 120 0.25 0.31 2.61 2.61 144 0.32 0.30 2.96 2.93 168 0.29 0.36 3.26 3.20 192 0.38 0.20 3.53 3.42 216 0.49 0.27 3.67 3.65 240 0.32 0.22 3.84 3.80 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.49 3.90 3.89 48 -0.33 -0.59 4.51 4.66 72 -0.47 -0.70 5.34 5.53 96 -0.58 -0.89 6.49 6.66 120 -0.62 -1.00 7.49 7.72 144 -0.58 -1.08 8.83 8.56 168 -0.53 -1.07 9.49 9.69 192 -0.44 -0.81 10.63 10.91 216 -0.36 -1.12 11.50 11.06 240 -0.72 -0.93 12.12 11.70 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.61 4.22 4.28 48 -0.62 -0.79 5.67 5.60 72 -0.88 -1.07 7.23 7.04 96 -1.44 -1.50 8.78 8.69 120 -1.75 -1.95 10.24 10.12 144 -1.77 -1.87 12.33 12.13 168 -2.11 -2.54 13.27 14.05 192 -1.98 -2.38 15.33 15.73 216 -2.09 -2.57 17.45 16.66 240 -2.19 -2.51 18.30 17.69 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.73 5.64 5.39 48 -1.13 -0.77 7.91 7.79 72 -1.59 -1.16 10.83 10.20 96 -2.28 -1.88 13.93 13.20 120 -2.53 -2.35 16.54 15.38 144 -2.77 -2.80 20.00 18.71 168 -3.65 -3.23 21.70 21.88 192 -3.58 -3.25 26.22 24.70 216 -3.45 -3.47 28.55 26.82 240 -3.18 -3.24 30.23 28.40 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.22 -2.61 7.93 8.23 48 -2.55 -3.94 10.80 11.74 72 -1.50 -2.88 15.50 15.66 96 -2.36 -4.68 22.27 21.48 120 -4.57 -6.05 33.41 27.54 144 -10.00 -12.44 44.46 38.82 168 -13.83 -17.00 57.71 52.90 192 -13.02 -11.50 63.62 58.55 216 -14.02 -19.47 70.73 73.12 240 -17.73 -25.40 76.77 87.22 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.15 -2.82 11.41 10.78 48 -3.14 -3.63 15.36 15.70 72 -1.35 -2.64 20.98 21.10 96 -3.32 -2.40 33.14 30.36 120 -2.29 -3.06 49.82 41.62 144 -7.13 -8.66 64.65 58.96 168 -14.22 -16.21 88.58 78.62 192 -7.71 -13.28 101.14 94.33 216 -11.91 -16.81 110.74 103.58 240 -19.21 -30.79 117.86 122.39 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.97 1.91 15.21 13.26 48 3.79 3.62 21.91 21.48 72 4.92 6.44 31.60 30.18 96 5.69 8.15 48.35 44.50 120 7.36 8.81 69.71 59.27 144 5.91 4.81 101.71 87.17 168 -0.85 3.72 129.18 113.49 192 9.34 2.21 149.12 142.83 216 -1.02 -4.74 162.12 144.79 240 -13.09 -19.61 164.38 165.32 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.23 1.22 1.18 48 0.16 0.25 1.46 1.37 72 0.12 0.22 1.61 1.60 96 0.15 0.40 1.92 1.93 120 0.21 0.38 2.27 2.32 144 0.40 0.42 3.08 2.86 168 0.40 0.24 3.75 3.37 192 0.48 0.43 4.19 3.93 216 0.21 0.36 4.27 4.04 240 -0.01 0.25 4.47 4.46 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.17 0.84 0.82 48 0.23 0.25 1.12 1.06 72 0.29 0.31 1.38 1.41 96 0.35 0.46 2.00 1.86 120 0.39 0.52 2.35 2.20 144 0.49 0.63 3.10 2.63 168 0.50 0.65 3.71 3.37 192 0.81 0.70 4.20 3.97 216 0.56 0.53 4.34 4.03 240 0.21 0.38 4.38 4.34 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.39 0.44 1.00 0.99 48 0.48 0.53 1.27 1.31 72 0.47 0.52 1.57 1.63 96 0.43 0.57 1.95 1.94 120 0.38 0.51 2.28 2.27 144 0.50 0.60 2.54 2.54 168 0.56 0.71 2.82 2.80 192 0.56 0.41 3.01 2.86 216 0.37 0.59 3.15 3.12 240 0.07 0.36 3.03 3.24 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.58 3.61 3.48 48 -0.47 -0.66 4.20 4.21 72 -0.60 -0.83 4.80 4.74 96 -0.65 -0.88 5.63 5.54 120 -0.67 -0.98 6.58 6.16 144 -0.74 -0.91 8.14 7.56 168 -0.60 -0.75 9.55 9.08 192 -0.94 -0.93 10.07 9.99 216 -1.33 -1.07 10.89 10.79 240 -1.25 -0.93 11.11 12.06 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.67 4.18 3.89 48 -0.59 -0.93 5.13 4.95 72 -0.76 -0.90 6.38 6.16 96 -0.83 -0.81 8.29 7.68 120 -1.26 -1.46 9.80 9.09 144 -1.45 -1.50 11.97 10.86 168 -1.20 -1.12 14.91 13.71 192 -1.41 -0.96 16.56 16.75 216 -1.31 -0.82 17.58 17.54 240 -1.52 -0.48 17.85 18.16 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.71 5.18 5.08 48 -0.74 -0.99 7.05 6.75 72 -0.83 -1.10 9.03 8.83 96 -1.33 -1.15 12.39 11.77 120 -1.73 -1.53 15.14 13.93 144 -1.29 -1.60 18.96 17.41 168 -1.07 -0.90 23.22 21.85 192 -1.36 -0.12 25.74 27.01 216 -0.74 -0.26 27.15 27.84 240 -1.01 -0.02 28.09 27.75 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -1.35 8.50 8.03 48 0.85 0.72 10.87 10.00 72 1.66 2.01 15.13 13.33 96 1.33 0.99 18.74 18.03 120 1.31 1.58 25.67 22.88 144 -0.10 1.56 30.52 28.97 168 -0.74 -0.21 36.77 36.34 192 -2.15 -1.63 40.63 41.94 216 -1.34 -0.44 44.70 43.19 240 -3.53 0.06 52.56 47.42 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.67 -1.51 12.87 12.25 48 0.34 0.69 16.19 15.28 72 1.72 2.03 21.94 20.09 96 1.77 2.21 27.84 27.10 120 1.76 2.24 36.32 34.48 144 -0.66 1.97 48.21 43.62 168 -3.17 -0.73 55.78 54.54 192 -5.19 -1.92 63.14 60.17 216 -1.56 -1.10 67.64 67.37 240 -5.57 -2.74 75.44 72.88 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.91 -0.34 18.72 17.64 48 2.81 5.09 23.25 23.04 72 7.25 8.94 31.81 31.02 96 9.25 11.11 39.54 41.30 120 9.99 11.56 51.75 50.86 144 5.16 11.65 69.27 64.60 168 1.04 7.45 83.02 81.19 192 -3.11 3.61 95.61 90.96 216 -1.41 3.42 104.73 103.11 240 -6.74 0.36 113.46 111.89 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.16 1.35 1.41 48 -0.01 -0.15 1.60 1.67 72 -0.01 -0.19 1.88 1.91 96 -0.03 -0.20 2.13 2.12 120 -0.04 -0.20 2.49 2.52 144 -0.15 -0.26 2.94 2.93 168 -0.25 -0.37 3.44 3.29 192 -0.25 -0.37 3.90 3.86 216 -0.24 -0.28 4.14 4.24 240 -0.09 -0.38 4.39 4.22 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.04 0.98 0.96 48 0.12 0.11 1.19 1.18 72 0.20 0.17 1.51 1.45 96 0.28 0.26 1.80 1.84 120 0.33 0.29 2.23 2.08 144 0.17 0.27 2.61 2.53 168 0.07 0.20 2.93 2.90 192 0.07 0.19 3.26 3.24 216 0.08 0.08 3.40 3.37 240 -0.10 -0.08 3.65 3.51 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.27 1.23 1.21 48 0.19 0.36 1.46 1.47 72 0.27 0.38 1.73 1.76 96 0.27 0.38 2.04 2.07 120 0.19 0.35 2.35 2.33 144 0.17 0.32 2.57 2.47 168 0.07 0.24 2.75 2.62 192 -0.07 0.18 2.90 2.82 216 -0.31 -0.07 2.98 2.90 240 -0.34 -0.09 3.17 3.02 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.40 3.49 3.46 48 -0.58 -0.40 4.09 3.98 72 -0.62 -0.47 4.71 4.49 96 -0.70 -0.44 5.52 5.20 120 -0.82 -0.60 6.18 5.85 144 -0.83 -0.52 6.78 6.82 168 -1.00 -0.49 7.12 7.41 192 -1.03 -0.73 7.65 7.97 216 -0.99 -0.80 8.02 8.00 240 -0.90 -0.70 8.50 8.23 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.55 4.27 4.33 48 -0.78 -0.74 5.35 5.30 72 -0.88 -0.78 6.54 6.30 96 -0.94 -0.85 7.54 7.46 120 -0.93 -0.84 8.80 8.42 144 -0.98 -0.94 9.97 9.77 168 -0.97 -0.98 10.70 10.57 192 -0.90 -0.96 11.63 11.51 216 -0.96 -1.08 12.29 11.90 240 -0.93 -0.80 12.74 12.38 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.42 5.73 5.67 48 -0.93 -0.88 7.26 7.10 72 -1.27 -1.19 8.79 8.55 96 -1.29 -1.38 10.12 10.25 120 -1.45 -1.33 12.30 12.19 144 -1.50 -1.33 13.94 13.85 168 -1.45 -1.41 15.51 15.61 192 -1.36 -1.37 17.09 17.31 216 -1.51 -1.47 18.67 18.45 240 -1.37 -1.47 19.85 19.46 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.51 -1.37 6.85 6.67 48 -0.80 0.24 8.95 10.20 72 1.00 0.60 12.71 15.49 96 2.50 0.01 16.82 21.28 120 4.52 3.61 22.76 28.33 144 5.06 6.04 29.40 33.62 168 4.53 8.41 32.57 41.22 192 5.91 4.09 36.09 48.28 216 8.04 2.31 40.14 54.00 240 8.70 1.86 46.29 58.43 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.77 -5.26 10.17 11.58 48 -4.80 -3.31 13.15 13.42 72 -3.03 -3.80 18.41 21.12 96 -1.40 -4.36 23.00 28.99 120 1.21 -1.35 31.58 37.68 144 0.69 2.44 40.35 46.18 168 1.48 1.75 45.77 55.66 192 3.41 -0.89 50.60 70.05 216 4.75 -2.76 54.77 78.59 240 8.59 -3.62 63.94 87.60 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.67 -3.49 13.03 15.66 48 0.49 -0.01 18.90 21.20 72 1.12 -2.13 26.66 32.70 96 2.97 -2.67 35.35 41.38 120 5.18 -0.33 46.63 51.96 144 4.21 3.17 59.61 59.80 168 3.48 0.89 68.67 76.72 192 5.84 -3.03 74.21 93.40 216 6.39 -5.62 77.86 109.11 240 11.84 -5.53 88.65 118.15 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 0.09 1.30 1.37 48 -0.19 0.08 1.48 1.48 72 -0.22 -0.03 1.80 1.75 96 -0.15 -0.06 2.01 2.00 120 -0.14 -0.27 2.39 2.33 144 -0.14 -0.36 2.91 2.71 168 -0.14 -0.38 3.13 3.14 192 -0.14 -0.24 3.04 3.49 216 -0.19 -0.39 3.56 3.51 240 -0.20 -0.49 4.07 4.08 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.07 0.89 0.97 48 -0.03 0.05 1.11 1.18 72 -0.03 -0.05 1.34 1.40 96 0.00 -0.04 1.58 1.81 120 0.08 0.03 1.86 2.05 144 0.08 0.08 2.03 2.43 168 0.07 -0.03 2.34 2.72 192 0.13 -0.08 2.44 3.14 216 0.08 -0.01 2.43 3.50 240 0.28 -0.03 2.84 3.51 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.40 0.33 1.10 1.21 48 0.40 0.33 1.35 1.39 72 0.33 0.40 1.53 1.55 96 0.18 0.33 1.76 1.94 120 0.05 0.10 2.10 2.34 144 -0.02 -0.11 2.40 2.69 168 -0.08 -0.33 2.63 2.87 192 -0.06 -0.30 2.66 3.14 216 -0.18 -0.41 2.80 3.31 240 -0.32 -0.21 3.00 3.48 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 0.01 4.04 3.87 48 -0.24 -0.09 4.64 4.57 72 -0.45 -0.30 5.24 5.37 96 -0.66 -0.25 6.08 6.35 120 -0.64 -0.24 7.11 6.98 144 -0.64 -0.14 7.67 7.83 168 -0.38 -0.14 8.24 8.81 192 -0.22 0.28 8.80 9.50 216 0.12 0.10 9.37 9.50 240 0.25 0.42 10.50 10.41 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.54 4.60 4.48 48 -0.82 -0.70 5.40 5.84 72 -1.11 -0.88 6.56 6.80 96 -1.26 -0.97 7.60 8.15 120 -1.30 -0.71 9.34 9.55 144 -1.29 -0.72 10.22 10.16 168 -1.37 -0.31 11.06 11.77 192 -1.21 -0.10 11.89 12.31 216 -0.99 0.05 12.71 13.15 240 -0.80 0.49 14.03 14.68 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.83 6.08 5.99 48 -1.08 -1.15 8.15 7.97 72 -1.47 -1.59 9.94 9.68 96 -2.13 -1.91 11.59 11.62 120 -2.27 -1.65 13.45 13.50 144 -2.58 -1.65 15.78 15.87 168 -2.42 -1.56 16.87 17.84 192 -2.35 -1.45 18.69 19.49 216 -2.22 -1.23 19.09 20.66 240 -1.38 -1.03 21.57 22.29 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.24 -6.17 10.52 10.38 48 -4.18 -5.45 10.09 11.09 72 -4.02 -5.64 10.67 11.89 96 -3.93 -5.63 11.44 12.90 120 -3.95 -6.10 12.46 13.66 144 -3.74 -6.36 13.30 14.70 168 -4.41 -6.26 14.02 14.95 192 -3.98 -5.77 14.15 15.36 216 -3.94 -5.54 15.54 16.23 240 -3.27 -5.15 16.10 17.32 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.41 -7.63 12.55 12.25 48 -5.93 -7.08 12.61 12.59 72 -6.06 -7.36 13.23 13.25 96 -6.01 -7.27 13.91 13.99 120 -6.06 -7.67 14.42 14.64 144 -6.08 -7.83 15.18 15.33 168 -6.90 -7.96 15.77 15.75 192 -6.59 -7.37 16.16 15.69 216 -6.57 -7.22 16.50 16.39 240 -6.08 -7.03 17.27 17.12 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.00 -5.03 14.30 13.22 48 -2.74 -1.82 14.29 13.36 72 -2.51 -1.33 15.12 14.42 96 -2.68 -1.29 16.23 15.85 120 -3.81 -2.12 17.56 17.32 144 -4.31 -2.29 19.11 18.52 168 -4.91 -2.50 20.53 19.46 192 -4.84 -1.86 21.68 20.26 216 -6.88 -3.41 23.49 21.61 240 -7.48 -4.05 24.80 21.62 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.01 0.93 0.95 48 0.09 0.02 1.01 1.02 72 0.06 0.00 1.06 1.04 96 0.05 0.01 1.08 1.08 120 0.06 0.01 1.16 1.13 144 0.02 -0.01 1.23 1.17 168 0.01 0.00 1.31 1.25 192 -0.02 -0.05 1.33 1.27 216 -0.10 -0.10 1.37 1.34 240 -0.14 -0.14 1.51 1.45 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.21 0.85 0.84 48 -0.23 -0.13 0.89 0.88 72 -0.20 -0.10 0.92 0.92 96 -0.19 -0.08 0.96 0.95 120 -0.19 -0.08 1.00 1.01 144 -0.21 -0.06 1.05 1.07 168 -0.22 -0.07 1.11 1.08 192 -0.22 -0.05 1.12 1.09 216 -0.18 -0.08 1.16 1.14 240 -0.20 -0.04 1.21 1.14 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.52 0.52 0.86 0.85 48 0.60 0.64 0.95 0.97 72 0.59 0.66 0.99 1.02 96 0.57 0.62 1.01 1.05 120 0.50 0.59 1.00 1.06 144 0.49 0.58 1.06 1.10 168 0.50 0.59 1.09 1.14 192 0.46 0.58 1.14 1.16 216 0.23 0.36 1.06 1.09 240 0.13 0.28 1.09 1.11 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.55 3.68 3.70 48 -0.66 -0.69 3.93 4.04 72 -0.64 -0.78 4.25 4.29 96 -0.74 -0.82 4.48 4.61 120 -0.75 -0.84 4.70 4.76 144 -0.75 -0.82 4.84 4.92 168 -0.78 -1.03 5.06 5.27 192 -0.84 -1.03 5.32 5.36 216 -0.80 -0.96 5.49 5.73 240 -0.79 -0.97 5.78 5.97 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -1.00 4.05 4.10 48 -0.96 -1.08 4.31 4.45 72 -0.98 -1.09 4.73 4.67 96 -1.00 -1.12 5.01 5.16 120 -1.05 -1.13 5.33 5.46 144 -1.18 -1.12 5.62 5.72 168 -1.22 -1.24 5.98 5.98 192 -1.22 -1.33 6.29 6.15 216 -1.33 -1.43 6.42 6.49 240 -1.27 -1.29 6.83 6.71 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.68 5.40 5.54 48 -0.96 -0.98 6.11 6.36 72 -1.05 -1.06 6.80 6.99 96 -1.20 -1.27 7.33 7.69 120 -1.31 -1.39 7.87 8.24 144 -1.34 -1.46 8.52 8.90 168 -1.38 -1.53 9.10 9.29 192 -1.41 -1.61 9.70 9.79 216 -1.66 -1.59 10.13 10.23 240 -1.63 -1.77 10.64 10.67 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.20 -2.36 8.84 8.63 48 -2.55 -3.06 12.62 12.72 72 -2.37 -2.88 17.43 17.70 96 -1.95 -1.96 26.02 25.16 120 -2.84 -2.85 35.95 34.26 144 -3.87 -4.05 46.13 42.70 168 -3.70 -4.76 55.16 53.19 192 -4.04 -5.63 64.60 60.83 216 -5.70 -7.56 71.73 69.96 240 -6.53 -11.14 74.34 77.48 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.78 -2.21 11.97 11.54 48 -1.95 -2.32 17.29 17.17 72 -1.44 -2.17 24.73 23.94 96 -1.18 -1.37 37.25 35.05 120 -0.84 -0.99 50.45 48.43 144 -3.27 -1.96 65.46 60.78 168 -2.02 -2.80 80.76 77.05 192 -1.07 -2.76 92.90 92.45 216 -3.26 -5.28 103.87 101.88 240 -5.36 -9.82 111.86 111.91 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.30 1.84 15.82 14.63 48 4.90 4.11 23.42 22.65 72 6.07 5.37 36.11 33.16 96 7.52 6.58 53.28 50.01 120 7.40 7.59 72.12 69.03 144 5.34 7.40 95.31 89.04 168 8.11 8.52 118.10 112.76 192 9.94 8.59 137.84 135.12 216 6.82 3.66 152.29 148.25 240 1.93 -2.94 163.11 159.48 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.06 1.32 1.32 48 0.10 0.06 1.58 1.55 72 0.09 0.04 1.86 1.84 96 0.09 0.06 2.23 2.16 120 0.04 0.07 2.65 2.66 144 0.05 0.03 3.21 3.14 168 0.01 0.03 3.75 3.67 192 0.09 -0.01 4.29 4.21 216 0.03 -0.08 4.57 4.47 240 -0.02 -0.04 4.91 4.82 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.11 0.91 0.89 48 0.21 0.18 1.23 1.19 72 0.26 0.23 1.61 1.57 96 0.32 0.27 2.16 2.04 120 0.38 0.35 2.61 2.55 144 0.34 0.43 3.16 3.05 168 0.42 0.41 3.77 3.70 192 0.51 0.51 4.26 4.13 216 0.49 0.45 4.49 4.42 240 0.31 0.34 4.73 4.68 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.29 0.30 1.18 1.17 48 0.29 0.28 1.53 1.53 72 0.20 0.19 1.91 1.91 96 0.10 0.08 2.35 2.32 120 -0.04 -0.01 2.73 2.69 144 -0.06 -0.08 3.07 3.03 168 -0.09 -0.07 3.36 3.32 192 -0.17 -0.21 3.60 3.59 216 -0.24 -0.24 3.77 3.70 240 -0.39 -0.41 3.83 3.89 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.45 3.75 3.73 48 -0.49 -0.53 4.44 4.40 72 -0.57 -0.62 5.20 5.23 96 -0.69 -0.71 6.32 6.13 120 -0.65 -0.75 7.26 7.20 144 -0.74 -0.77 8.43 8.32 168 -0.68 -0.71 9.47 9.43 192 -0.83 -0.69 10.24 10.39 216 -0.84 -0.84 10.88 10.74 240 -0.83 -0.72 11.22 11.49 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.58 4.16 4.12 48 -0.59 -0.73 5.43 5.37 72 -0.76 -0.88 6.88 6.72 96 -0.99 -1.09 8.61 8.30 120 -1.23 -1.40 10.15 10.00 144 -1.26 -1.35 12.02 11.79 168 -1.27 -1.31 13.88 13.73 192 -1.32 -1.23 15.39 15.59 216 -1.39 -1.37 16.35 16.25 240 -1.35 -1.15 16.94 17.11 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.55 5.30 5.12 48 -0.86 -0.79 7.27 7.04 72 -1.25 -1.09 9.51 9.08 96 -1.59 -1.36 12.30 11.82 120 -1.78 -1.57 14.94 14.11 144 -1.78 -1.65 18.13 17.33 168 -1.89 -1.48 21.20 20.64 192 -1.75 -1.16 23.95 23.94 216 -1.76 -1.58 25.54 25.05 240 -1.67 -1.26 26.66 26.35 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.93 -2.82 8.52 10.59 48 -1.25 -3.56 11.83 13.69 72 -0.45 -4.52 16.14 18.12 96 0.16 -5.73 21.43 24.42 120 1.72 -4.36 28.04 29.96 144 1.90 -3.14 36.74 34.73 168 1.99 -1.55 40.38 44.66 192 2.56 -1.95 45.15 50.01 216 4.29 -1.20 50.14 53.86 240 6.86 -2.52 54.01 56.33 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.52 -5.68 11.83 13.66 48 -4.33 -6.43 16.01 17.92 72 -3.62 -7.66 22.58 25.21 96 -3.10 -7.92 29.52 34.52 120 -1.04 -8.87 40.13 42.11 144 -2.44 -7.42 50.42 52.00 168 -1.80 -6.06 58.71 64.24 192 0.75 -5.28 63.37 73.35 216 2.52 -3.48 70.74 81.05 240 6.58 -4.10 75.81 84.44 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.45 -2.24 15.14 16.63 48 0.11 -0.50 21.64 23.69 72 0.38 -0.75 30.37 34.10 96 0.48 -1.52 40.97 47.34 120 2.32 -3.55 55.73 59.08 144 0.86 -1.61 70.35 70.42 168 1.01 1.17 82.58 88.03 192 6.17 2.01 90.41 103.60 216 6.52 1.09 101.06 115.20 240 12.03 0.80 108.05 118.78 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.01 1.45 1.46 48 -0.15 -0.04 1.70 1.67 72 -0.20 -0.09 2.01 1.92 96 -0.15 -0.10 2.23 2.29 120 -0.17 -0.29 2.69 2.66 144 -0.20 -0.40 3.18 3.12 168 -0.25 -0.47 3.52 3.59 192 -0.20 -0.30 3.72 3.88 216 -0.44 -0.21 4.12 3.97 240 -0.38 -0.26 4.43 4.38 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.01 0.99 1.06 48 0.03 0.09 1.22 1.28 72 0.04 0.10 1.48 1.57 96 0.01 0.11 1.79 1.96 120 0.06 0.09 2.14 2.30 144 0.07 0.19 2.44 2.62 168 0.06 0.27 2.69 2.93 192 0.28 0.25 2.93 3.44 216 0.28 0.26 3.08 3.64 240 0.41 0.38 3.28 3.58 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.33 0.35 1.20 1.26 48 0.34 0.43 1.45 1.52 72 0.32 0.53 1.71 1.73 96 0.20 0.40 1.95 2.01 120 0.09 0.37 2.32 2.29 144 0.06 0.20 2.63 2.55 168 0.01 0.16 2.86 2.70 192 0.02 0.06 2.96 2.93 216 -0.10 -0.07 3.07 3.00 240 -0.17 -0.08 3.24 3.19 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.43 4.36 4.59 48 -0.36 -0.49 5.02 5.17 72 -0.60 -0.57 5.74 6.04 96 -0.65 -0.44 6.56 7.09 120 -0.71 -0.49 7.52 7.87 144 -0.72 -0.37 8.31 8.88 168 -0.54 -0.42 9.01 9.89 192 -0.15 0.05 9.82 10.57 216 -0.11 -0.47 10.54 10.47 240 -0.20 -0.42 11.09 11.12 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.55 4.95 5.03 48 -0.55 -0.57 5.99 6.24 72 -0.77 -0.72 7.23 7.63 96 -1.03 -0.83 8.42 9.14 120 -1.04 -0.63 9.84 10.31 144 -0.98 -0.26 11.09 12.04 168 -1.08 -0.14 12.37 13.34 192 -0.81 -0.22 13.45 14.09 216 -0.62 -0.59 14.18 14.35 240 -0.71 -0.60 15.52 15.70 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.39 6.27 6.48 48 -0.72 -0.54 8.15 8.32 72 -0.98 -0.68 10.18 10.33 96 -1.51 -0.89 12.17 12.72 120 -1.48 -0.58 14.09 14.52 144 -1.50 -0.38 16.54 17.02 168 -1.15 -0.01 18.49 19.72 192 -1.07 0.08 20.09 21.41 216 -0.81 -0.64 21.25 22.11 240 -0.33 -0.07 23.43 23.85