VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 22.7 23.9 48 -0.2 -0.2 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 30.4 32.0 72 -0.1 -0.2 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 37.8 39.4 96 -0.1 -0.1 2.8 2.7 0.9 0.9 45.1 46.7 120 -0.1 -0.1 3.5 3.4 0.8 0.9 51.9 53.2 144 -0.1 -0.1 4.2 4.2 0.8 0.8 57.7 59.4 168 -0.1 -0.2 4.8 4.8 0.7 0.7 62.0 64.9 192 -0.2 -0.2 5.3 5.3 0.7 0.7 65.7 68.1 216 -0.3 -0.3 5.7 5.7 0.7 0.7 69.0 70.8 240 -0.4 -0.4 6.1 5.9 0.6 0.6 71.3 72.7 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.2 0.8 7.3 7.5 1.0 1.0 18.4 18.7 48 2.0 1.4 13.0 12.9 1.0 1.0 26.6 26.9 72 3.2 2.7 20.2 20.2 1.0 0.9 34.9 35.2 96 4.3 3.9 29.6 28.6 0.9 0.9 43.6 43.4 120 5.2 4.8 39.7 37.8 0.9 0.9 51.2 50.6 144 5.9 5.6 48.6 47.3 0.8 0.8 58.2 57.9 168 6.5 6.4 55.6 55.2 0.8 0.8 63.3 63.4 192 7.1 7.3 61.8 61.1 0.7 0.7 67.2 67.5 216 7.2 7.2 67.2 65.6 0.7 0.7 70.8 70.7 240 7.1 6.8 72.2 70.0 0.6 0.7 74.2 73.5 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.1 4.1 11.0 11.2 1.0 1.0 16.1 16.3 48 7.1 6.8 20.2 20.2 1.0 1.0 24.8 24.9 72 10.0 9.9 31.2 31.2 1.0 1.0 33.2 33.4 96 12.5 12.7 44.8 43.6 0.9 0.9 41.8 41.6 120 14.8 14.8 59.2 57.4 0.9 0.9 49.2 48.6 144 16.6 16.6 72.2 71.2 0.8 0.8 55.4 55.3 168 18.3 18.6 82.7 82.6 0.8 0.8 60.5 60.4 192 20.2 20.6 91.9 90.8 0.7 0.8 64.2 63.9 216 19.1 19.3 99.8 97.1 0.7 0.7 67.5 67.0 240 18.9 18.8 107.3 104.4 0.7 0.7 70.5 69.8 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 48 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 72 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.9 120 0.3 0.3 1.9 1.9 0.8 0.8 144 0.4 0.4 2.2 2.2 0.8 0.8 168 0.4 0.4 2.5 2.4 0.7 0.7 192 0.5 0.5 2.7 2.6 0.7 0.7 216 0.5 0.5 2.8 2.7 0.7 0.7 240 0.5 0.5 3.0 2.9 0.6 0.6 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 48 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 72 0.2 0.2 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.3 2.1 2.1 0.8 0.8 120 0.3 0.3 2.4 2.4 0.8 0.8 144 0.3 0.3 2.7 2.7 0.8 0.8 168 0.3 0.3 3.0 2.9 0.7 0.7 192 0.3 0.3 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 216 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.2 0.7 0.7 240 0.1 0.2 3.3 3.3 0.6 0.7 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 3.0 3.0 48 -0.4 -0.4 4.2 4.2 72 -0.6 -0.6 5.4 5.4 96 -0.7 -0.6 6.7 6.7 120 -0.8 -0.8 8.0 7.9 144 -0.9 -0.8 9.1 9.1 168 -0.9 -0.9 10.0 10.0 192 -1.0 -1.0 10.6 10.6 216 -1.0 -1.0 11.3 11.2 240 -1.0 -1.0 11.8 11.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.3 4.6 4.6 48 -0.6 -0.5 6.7 6.7 72 -0.8 -0.7 9.0 8.9 96 -0.9 -0.9 11.2 11.2 120 -1.0 -1.0 13.3 13.2 144 -1.1 -1.1 15.1 15.1 168 -1.2 -1.1 16.6 16.6 192 -1.2 -1.2 17.7 17.5 216 -1.2 -1.2 18.7 18.4 240 -1.2 -1.2 19.6 19.3 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.6 -0.5 3.9 4.0 0.9 0.9 32.0 31.7 48 -1.0 -0.8 6.0 6.0 0.9 0.9 39.3 39.2 72 -1.8 -1.6 7.6 7.5 0.9 0.9 43.2 43.0 96 -2.5 -1.9 9.0 8.9 0.8 0.8 46.4 46.6 120 -2.9 -2.5 10.1 10.1 0.8 0.8 49.1 49.3 144 -3.5 -3.0 11.1 11.2 0.8 0.8 51.6 51.5 168 -4.0 -3.1 12.0 12.1 0.8 0.8 53.7 53.6 192 -3.8 -2.7 12.7 12.6 0.8 0.7 55.5 55.4 216 -3.6 -2.6 13.2 13.1 0.7 0.7 60.0 59.5 240 -3.3 -2.5 13.4 13.3 0.7 0.7 61.5 61.2 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.1 3.4 6.4 6.7 0.9 0.9 32.1 32.4 48 4.4 4.7 9.1 9.5 0.9 0.9 38.7 39.5 72 4.5 5.0 11.0 11.5 0.9 0.9 43.2 43.8 96 4.7 5.5 12.8 13.2 0.9 0.9 47.0 47.3 120 4.8 5.6 14.8 14.8 0.9 0.9 50.2 50.6 144 4.4 5.5 16.8 16.7 0.8 0.8 53.2 53.7 168 4.6 5.9 18.6 18.6 0.8 0.8 56.4 56.7 192 5.2 6.3 20.7 21.0 0.8 0.8 59.5 60.0 216 4.1 4.7 22.2 22.3 0.8 0.7 62.8 63.3 240 3.0 3.5 23.7 23.8 0.7 0.7 64.8 65.8 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 48 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 72 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 96 -0.1 -0.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 120 -0.1 -0.1 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 168 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 192 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 -0.1 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.6 240 -0.1 -0.1 1.7 1.7 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 96 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 120 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 144 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 168 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 192 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 216 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.6 240 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.9 48 -0.1 -0.1 2.7 2.6 72 -0.1 -0.1 3.2 3.1 96 -0.1 -0.1 3.6 3.5 120 -0.2 -0.2 4.0 3.9 144 -0.3 -0.3 4.3 4.2 168 -0.3 -0.3 4.7 4.5 192 -0.4 -0.4 4.9 4.8 216 -0.4 -0.3 5.2 5.1 240 -0.4 -0.3 5.4 5.3 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.3 4.1 4.2 48 -0.4 -0.5 5.6 5.6 72 -0.6 -0.6 6.5 6.6 96 -0.7 -0.7 7.3 7.4 120 -0.8 -0.7 8.0 8.1 144 -0.8 -0.8 8.7 8.8 168 -0.8 -0.8 9.5 9.4 192 -0.8 -0.9 10.2 10.2 216 -0.8 -0.8 11.0 11.1 240 -0.9 -0.7 11.5 11.8 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.0 20.7 20.5 48 -0.1 0.0 2.9 2.8 1.0 1.0 29.4 29.2 72 -0.1 0.0 4.1 4.0 0.9 0.9 37.9 37.6 96 0.0 0.0 5.5 5.3 0.9 0.9 45.5 45.4 120 0.0 0.0 7.0 6.8 0.9 0.9 53.2 52.4 144 0.1 0.1 8.3 8.4 0.9 0.9 59.6 58.6 168 0.1 0.1 9.7 9.7 0.8 0.8 64.4 64.3 192 0.2 0.1 10.9 11.1 0.8 0.8 68.8 69.2 216 0.4 0.2 11.8 11.9 0.7 0.7 72.2 71.6 240 0.4 0.3 12.6 12.6 0.7 0.7 74.5 73.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.0 -0.9 11.8 11.8 1.0 1.0 14.5 14.5 48 -1.9 -1.6 22.1 22.1 1.0 1.0 21.8 22.0 72 -1.9 -1.8 35.2 35.0 1.0 1.0 29.5 29.3 96 -1.8 -2.1 51.1 49.9 0.9 0.9 36.9 36.4 120 -1.9 -2.4 68.6 65.7 0.9 0.9 43.8 42.7 144 -2.3 -2.3 84.1 83.6 0.9 0.9 49.9 49.2 168 -2.7 -3.1 97.6 99.5 0.8 0.8 54.4 54.4 192 -3.2 -4.1 111.1 113.8 0.8 0.8 58.4 58.6 216 -4.0 -5.0 122.6 123.8 0.8 0.7 61.5 61.3 240 -4.7 -5.9 132.2 133.1 0.7 0.7 63.7 64.1 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.7 1.8 14.2 14.1 1.0 1.0 11.0 11.0 48 3.0 3.6 26.8 26.7 1.0 1.0 16.7 16.7 72 4.2 4.6 43.3 42.3 1.0 1.0 23.2 22.7 96 4.5 4.7 63.8 62.6 0.9 0.9 29.6 29.3 120 4.2 4.4 86.4 83.1 0.9 0.9 36.0 35.3 144 2.6 3.4 108.2 105.2 0.9 0.9 42.0 41.2 168 0.8 0.8 125.8 126.3 0.8 0.8 46.2 46.1 192 -1.3 -0.8 143.0 146.3 0.8 0.8 50.1 50.2 216 -4.1 -3.6 158.4 162.2 0.8 0.7 53.4 53.3 240 -5.0 -4.9 173.1 175.1 0.7 0.7 55.8 56.0 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.8 2.8 0.9 0.9 144 0.1 0.2 3.3 3.2 0.8 0.8 168 0.1 0.1 3.7 3.7 0.8 0.8 192 0.1 0.1 4.0 4.1 0.7 0.7 216 0.0 0.0 4.4 4.5 0.7 0.7 240 -0.1 -0.1 4.8 4.8 0.7 0.6 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 0.2 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.2 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.9 120 0.1 0.1 2.6 2.6 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.1 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.8 168 -0.1 0.0 3.3 3.2 0.8 0.8 192 -0.2 -0.1 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 216 -0.3 -0.1 3.8 3.7 0.7 0.7 240 -0.3 -0.2 4.0 4.0 0.6 0.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 4.2 4.2 48 0.0 0.0 6.3 6.3 72 -0.1 -0.1 8.4 8.3 96 -0.2 -0.1 10.5 10.3 120 -0.2 -0.2 12.6 12.3 144 -0.4 -0.3 14.4 14.2 168 -0.5 -0.4 15.9 15.8 192 -0.6 -0.4 17.2 17.2 216 -0.7 -0.5 18.2 18.2 240 -0.6 -0.5 19.1 19.1 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 4.9 4.9 48 -0.1 -0.1 7.4 7.4 72 -0.1 -0.2 10.2 10.1 96 -0.3 -0.4 13.2 13.0 120 -0.5 -0.4 16.3 16.0 144 -0.5 -0.6 19.1 18.8 168 -0.6 -0.6 21.5 21.4 192 -0.7 -0.5 23.7 23.6 216 -0.7 -0.5 25.4 25.4 240 -0.5 -0.4 26.8 27.0 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.91 -4.12 8.14 8.45 48 -5.21 -6.48 11.69 12.14 72 -5.97 -7.13 15.14 15.57 96 -6.26 -6.55 18.43 19.67 120 -5.06 -3.74 21.86 23.82 144 -2.29 -1.50 25.49 27.61 168 -0.71 -1.17 27.66 30.82 192 0.31 -1.77 31.24 33.15 216 -0.25 -1.73 35.43 35.82 240 2.24 -0.35 38.90 39.70 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.58 -3.61 8.62 9.66 48 -2.75 -4.89 12.16 13.25 72 -2.36 -4.85 16.66 17.80 96 -1.84 -2.93 21.00 22.63 120 0.86 1.25 26.71 29.73 144 4.65 5.09 33.03 35.00 168 7.15 7.28 36.36 39.40 192 9.08 8.53 43.87 45.94 216 8.54 9.58 50.99 52.61 240 12.06 10.82 58.32 55.17 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.99 1.96 12.95 12.89 48 2.36 2.20 20.20 19.26 72 3.66 2.65 27.02 28.91 96 5.58 5.73 35.92 38.20 120 8.51 10.28 44.65 48.35 144 14.15 16.36 55.05 61.68 168 17.34 20.37 62.85 67.31 192 20.99 24.14 73.71 76.43 216 17.88 25.41 86.24 86.28 240 23.12 24.53 98.28 94.42 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 -0.01 1.35 1.26 48 0.34 0.04 1.66 1.48 72 0.43 0.06 1.85 1.80 96 0.49 0.14 2.12 2.07 120 0.59 0.27 2.39 2.32 144 0.61 0.38 2.64 2.66 168 0.68 0.49 2.79 2.93 192 0.75 0.66 3.06 3.05 216 0.90 0.68 3.53 3.38 240 0.85 0.54 3.94 3.66 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.15 0.91 0.94 48 0.06 0.20 1.12 1.13 72 0.09 0.24 1.30 1.36 96 0.13 0.27 1.47 1.53 120 0.22 0.34 1.66 1.74 144 0.34 0.46 1.90 2.01 168 0.36 0.57 2.02 2.20 192 0.44 0.65 2.19 2.38 216 0.37 0.62 2.41 2.42 240 0.43 0.53 2.61 2.59 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.55 0.61 1.13 1.18 48 0.66 0.68 1.41 1.43 72 0.68 0.67 1.62 1.66 96 0.72 0.67 1.84 1.86 120 0.68 0.65 2.08 2.11 144 0.70 0.69 2.19 2.24 168 0.71 0.75 2.39 2.45 192 0.77 0.85 2.61 2.57 216 0.67 0.77 2.76 2.70 240 0.75 0.78 2.95 2.79 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.77 3.63 3.83 48 -0.35 -0.79 4.17 4.53 72 -0.37 -0.77 4.69 5.16 96 -0.38 -0.79 5.30 5.67 120 -0.26 -0.68 5.82 6.20 144 -0.21 -0.73 6.23 6.78 168 -0.31 -0.77 6.58 7.03 192 -0.38 -0.67 6.84 7.46 216 -0.53 -1.04 7.20 7.48 240 -0.44 -1.12 7.82 7.86 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.47 3.96 4.08 48 -0.90 -0.61 4.68 4.80 72 -1.02 -0.54 5.38 5.62 96 -1.13 -0.73 6.27 6.42 120 -1.27 -0.88 6.90 7.20 144 -1.38 -1.05 7.64 7.80 168 -1.55 -1.09 8.06 8.23 192 -1.57 -1.12 8.85 8.75 216 -1.62 -1.07 9.66 9.28 240 -1.68 -0.85 10.18 9.96 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.65 5.78 5.44 48 -1.06 -1.02 7.24 7.03 72 -1.37 -1.20 8.95 8.79 96 -1.82 -1.56 10.30 10.44 120 -2.37 -1.99 11.70 12.36 144 -2.61 -2.23 13.12 13.56 168 -2.67 -2.52 14.57 14.44 192 -2.74 -2.63 15.69 15.31 216 -2.85 -2.81 17.13 16.85 240 -3.01 -2.59 18.60 18.23 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.09 -1.26 8.34 7.37 48 -3.34 -0.57 10.08 10.05 72 -0.14 3.47 14.29 14.21 96 5.95 6.98 20.80 19.25 120 10.79 10.88 28.00 26.04 144 12.48 14.60 31.81 34.16 168 13.44 17.04 38.32 39.95 192 14.30 19.85 43.47 42.54 216 17.09 19.82 47.83 44.95 240 16.34 20.21 47.67 46.35 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.92 -0.07 10.72 9.60 48 -0.86 2.24 14.16 14.12 72 4.10 8.20 21.51 21.04 96 10.97 13.13 31.60 28.54 120 16.77 16.67 40.95 37.47 144 22.71 20.84 52.82 48.96 168 23.90 25.94 61.41 60.80 192 26.38 28.07 70.35 64.76 216 29.71 28.58 77.40 71.60 240 27.53 29.61 75.96 68.81 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.04 6.01 14.85 14.43 48 6.62 11.83 22.10 23.90 72 15.56 21.27 36.83 37.88 96 25.29 28.65 54.92 50.48 120 32.64 32.65 69.23 64.71 144 42.18 38.85 86.56 81.82 168 47.06 47.88 102.20 99.40 192 51.99 51.11 114.00 107.98 216 52.89 47.43 122.58 114.14 240 49.17 47.55 123.25 113.58 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.23 1.09 1.08 48 0.16 0.35 1.30 1.30 72 0.23 0.47 1.55 1.53 96 0.26 0.56 1.87 1.89 120 0.31 0.44 2.21 2.11 144 0.40 0.43 2.60 2.55 168 0.54 0.59 2.96 2.90 192 0.64 0.63 3.35 3.24 216 0.68 0.77 3.60 3.65 240 0.63 0.92 3.86 3.76 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.09 0.83 0.79 48 0.15 0.20 1.04 1.04 72 0.28 0.36 1.31 1.38 96 0.42 0.43 1.77 1.62 120 0.49 0.42 2.04 2.04 144 0.64 0.51 2.39 2.39 168 0.84 0.71 2.68 2.68 192 0.97 0.77 3.03 2.85 216 0.95 0.64 3.18 3.09 240 0.79 0.61 3.12 3.07 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.39 0.49 1.37 1.26 48 0.42 0.54 1.70 1.69 72 0.48 0.61 2.14 2.04 96 0.48 0.66 2.50 2.33 120 0.57 0.72 2.58 2.63 144 0.76 0.85 2.82 2.86 168 0.95 1.01 3.18 3.10 192 1.07 1.10 3.40 3.25 216 0.93 1.06 3.43 3.35 240 0.91 0.95 3.49 3.32 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.64 3.68 3.28 48 -0.88 -0.79 4.30 3.84 72 -1.05 -0.95 4.89 4.58 96 -1.31 -1.16 5.67 5.17 120 -1.56 -1.34 6.55 6.08 144 -1.57 -1.39 7.33 6.85 168 -1.20 -1.24 7.95 7.65 192 -1.44 -1.31 8.48 8.12 216 -1.50 -1.48 8.89 8.06 240 -1.34 -1.53 8.89 8.20 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.61 3.96 3.67 48 -0.80 -0.90 4.85 4.74 72 -0.93 -1.08 6.00 5.76 96 -1.13 -1.10 7.28 6.90 120 -1.35 -1.29 8.85 8.22 144 -1.60 -1.41 10.13 9.88 168 -1.33 -1.59 11.55 10.89 192 -1.41 -1.26 12.47 12.11 216 -1.39 -1.19 13.10 12.80 240 -1.16 -1.26 13.05 12.51 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -1.01 5.90 5.22 48 -1.39 -1.54 8.16 7.33 72 -1.72 -1.77 10.76 9.69 96 -2.11 -2.13 13.62 12.33 120 -2.26 -2.01 16.09 14.67 144 -1.84 -2.37 18.11 17.67 168 -1.77 -2.09 20.68 19.78 192 -2.06 -2.04 21.82 21.22 216 -1.85 -1.92 22.37 21.83 240 -1.66 -2.05 22.09 21.80 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.26 -3.82 10.56 10.61 48 -4.51 -3.08 13.70 13.20 72 -3.05 -2.32 16.69 16.35 96 -5.55 -4.69 21.58 20.78 120 -10.12 -7.89 28.44 25.55 144 -13.49 -12.50 33.19 30.66 168 -15.96 -13.81 37.97 35.37 192 -15.52 -13.46 41.75 40.05 216 -15.71 -15.08 45.31 43.99 240 -19.33 -17.07 48.63 45.66 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.61 -1.69 14.39 13.57 48 -0.92 0.71 17.87 16.54 72 2.44 2.75 21.86 21.07 96 1.47 2.72 27.03 25.58 120 -2.12 -0.33 33.84 31.12 144 -4.86 -3.73 38.82 37.11 168 -5.82 -4.50 45.22 43.00 192 -3.45 -1.34 50.03 48.79 216 -2.82 -1.07 54.88 53.70 240 -5.30 -2.66 59.71 56.72 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.83 -2.23 20.13 19.36 48 1.40 2.74 24.81 24.47 72 7.35 7.48 32.40 31.03 96 8.91 9.88 40.98 39.80 120 7.49 8.64 52.08 48.45 144 5.88 6.46 60.32 56.18 168 7.85 8.55 70.15 64.92 192 13.79 14.66 76.86 75.62 216 15.38 15.33 81.64 82.61 240 12.91 14.78 88.92 86.79 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.29 0.32 1.58 1.64 48 0.49 0.57 1.86 1.99 72 0.66 0.73 2.20 2.40 96 0.75 0.89 2.49 2.76 120 0.77 0.91 2.84 2.95 144 0.82 0.98 3.20 3.32 168 0.92 1.02 3.52 3.70 192 0.99 1.22 3.72 3.98 216 1.09 1.42 3.92 4.18 240 1.13 1.43 3.98 4.39 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.01 1.09 1.08 48 0.09 0.05 1.31 1.26 72 0.16 0.14 1.49 1.46 96 0.29 0.23 1.70 1.67 120 0.34 0.29 1.96 1.85 144 0.38 0.27 2.15 2.06 168 0.48 0.37 2.37 2.25 192 0.65 0.52 2.53 2.47 216 0.74 0.62 2.62 2.63 240 0.81 0.59 2.74 2.71 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.20 1.31 1.28 48 0.21 0.34 1.64 1.61 72 0.29 0.47 1.85 1.81 96 0.39 0.55 2.13 2.06 120 0.50 0.70 2.37 2.34 144 0.63 0.74 2.69 2.55 168 0.71 0.85 2.84 2.78 192 0.87 0.94 2.94 2.94 216 0.76 0.86 2.98 2.89 240 0.74 0.92 3.10 3.01 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.55 3.89 3.85 48 -0.88 -0.51 4.53 4.55 72 -0.87 -0.51 5.19 5.11 96 -0.92 -0.46 5.86 5.74 120 -0.92 -0.53 6.49 6.25 144 -0.96 -0.56 7.07 6.87 168 -0.92 -0.57 7.85 7.51 192 -0.87 -0.49 8.21 8.04 216 -1.04 -0.56 8.51 8.26 240 -0.93 -0.60 9.01 8.49 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.68 4.23 4.29 48 -1.00 -0.95 5.23 5.24 72 -1.27 -1.14 6.19 6.10 96 -1.41 -1.29 7.22 7.03 120 -1.28 -1.25 8.02 7.82 144 -1.32 -1.21 8.88 8.62 168 -1.19 -1.24 9.67 9.58 192 -1.33 -1.25 9.94 10.09 216 -1.51 -1.39 10.64 10.48 240 -1.59 -1.45 11.13 11.13 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.47 6.92 6.93 48 -1.17 -0.85 8.76 8.75 72 -1.64 -1.25 10.43 10.24 96 -1.81 -1.53 12.10 11.91 120 -1.61 -1.35 13.68 13.44 144 -1.36 -1.24 15.56 15.08 168 -1.40 -1.19 16.96 16.49 192 -1.54 -1.39 17.21 17.46 216 -1.53 -1.33 18.43 18.25 240 -1.99 -1.05 18.71 19.14 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.38 -1.74 7.32 8.77 48 -1.09 1.67 9.50 12.92 72 0.94 3.10 14.56 18.20 96 1.06 3.36 18.08 24.25 120 3.01 4.99 25.36 32.37 144 4.89 7.26 31.80 43.50 168 8.32 7.01 40.52 55.06 192 11.71 15.55 43.54 63.21 216 12.30 18.66 49.15 70.85 240 12.04 22.76 49.30 78.98 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.77 -4.58 11.35 11.46 48 -4.84 -1.99 15.00 17.87 72 -2.49 0.59 21.57 24.87 96 -0.87 0.33 26.79 31.62 120 1.33 2.33 37.54 46.04 144 2.57 3.25 46.77 61.35 168 6.35 2.55 60.02 77.89 192 10.60 10.07 65.10 87.06 216 8.37 12.27 71.67 91.02 240 9.52 15.93 69.31 103.49 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.99 -2.95 12.96 14.06 48 -0.24 1.32 19.36 22.64 72 1.26 4.50 27.78 29.67 96 0.20 4.43 36.29 38.64 120 -0.17 6.01 45.94 59.09 144 0.00 5.49 59.10 75.92 168 2.99 3.90 72.11 94.89 192 6.18 9.76 83.28 106.15 216 1.23 11.16 95.98 111.29 240 -1.50 15.16 97.01 128.94 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.10 1.20 1.35 48 -0.12 -0.11 1.40 1.45 72 -0.17 0.00 1.60 1.72 96 -0.22 -0.11 1.78 2.04 120 -0.07 -0.07 1.97 2.29 144 -0.13 0.01 2.31 2.51 168 -0.03 -0.29 2.52 3.01 192 -0.08 -0.29 2.76 3.45 216 -0.20 -0.53 2.95 3.36 240 -0.23 -0.51 3.06 3.41 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 -0.01 0.94 0.90 48 0.14 0.04 1.15 1.15 72 0.25 0.14 1.47 1.43 96 0.32 0.24 1.72 1.83 120 0.30 0.32 1.98 2.05 144 0.26 0.34 2.26 2.32 168 0.28 0.25 2.55 3.02 192 0.25 0.20 2.83 3.35 216 0.22 -0.04 3.10 3.33 240 0.24 0.32 3.22 3.67 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.21 1.18 1.32 48 0.10 0.26 1.47 1.70 72 -0.03 0.20 1.83 1.84 96 -0.29 -0.07 2.17 2.18 120 -0.40 -0.27 2.44 2.53 144 -0.59 -0.43 2.83 2.92 168 -0.77 -0.39 3.32 3.12 192 -0.82 -0.57 3.49 3.47 216 -1.07 -0.89 3.75 3.97 240 -1.44 -0.96 4.00 4.01 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.14 3.69 3.85 48 0.01 0.14 4.24 4.45 72 -0.12 0.09 5.03 5.03 96 -0.20 0.03 5.73 5.66 120 -0.64 -0.27 6.56 6.58 144 -0.74 -0.42 7.44 7.26 168 -0.75 -0.82 8.36 8.56 192 -0.93 -0.83 8.75 9.23 216 -1.15 -0.99 9.13 9.70 240 -1.30 -0.71 9.59 10.44 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.53 4.39 4.43 48 -0.80 -0.53 5.68 5.53 72 -0.83 -1.01 7.15 6.41 96 -1.03 -0.87 8.16 7.37 120 -1.39 -1.05 9.49 8.81 144 -1.64 -1.45 11.04 10.12 168 -2.11 -1.26 12.14 11.85 192 -2.28 -1.06 12.74 12.91 216 -2.45 -1.25 13.66 13.60 240 -2.47 -1.40 14.50 15.45 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.39 5.50 5.58 48 -1.07 -0.66 6.92 7.06 72 -1.33 -0.81 8.74 8.79 96 -1.85 -1.27 11.06 9.67 120 -1.99 -1.05 12.69 11.65 144 -2.24 -1.42 14.86 13.78 168 -2.63 -1.13 16.67 15.02 192 -3.07 -1.04 18.80 17.30 216 -2.86 -0.94 20.61 18.98 240 -3.52 -1.35 22.69 21.91 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.72 -2.81 10.38 10.03 48 -2.24 -1.87 10.94 10.67 72 -1.67 -1.38 11.54 11.26 96 -1.36 -1.06 12.35 11.98 120 -1.60 -1.45 13.33 12.63 144 -2.35 -2.63 14.03 13.66 168 -3.20 -3.36 14.57 14.72 192 -2.92 -3.30 15.29 14.98 216 -3.45 -3.54 16.28 15.51 240 -3.39 -3.34 16.72 15.23 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.58 -4.63 13.67 12.11 48 -4.09 -3.80 13.97 12.39 72 -3.43 -3.31 14.29 12.67 96 -2.88 -2.51 14.70 13.34 120 -3.03 -2.48 15.44 13.82 144 -3.96 -3.50 16.49 14.66 168 -4.76 -4.29 17.13 15.71 192 -4.65 -4.33 17.70 16.25 216 -5.16 -5.04 18.23 16.47 240 -5.16 -4.92 18.71 16.51 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.47 -4.12 15.42 14.38 48 -1.26 -1.31 15.78 14.89 72 -0.24 0.42 16.33 16.01 96 0.42 2.06 17.39 17.34 120 0.13 2.22 18.56 17.92 144 -1.26 1.60 20.00 19.05 168 -2.42 1.21 22.03 20.47 192 -1.84 1.27 23.20 22.14 216 -4.18 -0.98 25.39 23.67 240 -5.58 -2.31 26.88 24.71 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.05 0.99 1.03 48 -0.05 -0.01 1.04 1.07 72 -0.08 -0.07 1.10 1.12 96 -0.09 -0.08 1.11 1.14 120 -0.11 -0.11 1.17 1.22 144 -0.12 -0.10 1.20 1.24 168 -0.13 -0.12 1.27 1.32 192 -0.13 -0.12 1.33 1.43 216 -0.20 -0.28 1.36 1.48 240 -0.24 -0.37 1.44 1.55 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.15 0.88 0.91 48 -0.12 -0.08 0.92 0.96 72 -0.09 -0.04 0.98 1.02 96 -0.09 0.01 1.03 1.08 120 -0.08 0.02 1.09 1.13 144 -0.09 0.04 1.12 1.18 168 -0.11 0.04 1.17 1.20 192 -0.14 0.01 1.24 1.26 216 -0.14 0.01 1.34 1.31 240 -0.13 0.00 1.35 1.39 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.50 0.39 0.92 0.83 48 0.59 0.50 1.01 0.96 72 0.62 0.54 1.08 1.05 96 0.60 0.55 1.11 1.09 120 0.58 0.53 1.16 1.12 144 0.59 0.55 1.21 1.19 168 0.62 0.56 1.26 1.24 192 0.61 0.55 1.32 1.24 216 0.45 0.38 1.29 1.20 240 0.34 0.31 1.32 1.20 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.63 3.81 3.82 48 -0.33 -0.59 4.24 4.11 72 -0.38 -0.57 4.54 4.48 96 -0.44 -0.55 4.86 4.77 120 -0.47 -0.74 5.25 4.98 144 -0.60 -0.83 5.59 5.30 168 -0.55 -0.93 5.85 5.53 192 -0.64 -0.99 6.10 5.77 216 -0.72 -0.88 6.30 6.02 240 -0.70 -0.80 6.54 6.27 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -0.97 4.29 4.21 48 -1.11 -0.96 4.71 4.64 72 -1.22 -0.95 5.21 5.03 96 -1.21 -0.91 5.57 5.52 120 -1.13 -0.80 6.04 5.83 144 -1.07 -0.77 6.39 6.11 168 -1.06 -0.81 6.78 6.48 192 -1.09 -0.77 7.08 6.82 216 -1.14 -0.90 7.39 7.04 240 -1.13 -0.90 7.73 7.32 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.78 5.62 5.73 48 -0.85 -1.07 6.29 6.49 72 -0.86 -1.10 7.04 7.15 96 -0.96 -1.17 7.60 8.02 120 -0.83 -1.35 8.29 8.68 144 -0.69 -1.18 8.86 9.10 168 -0.63 -1.09 9.49 9.79 192 -0.48 -1.33 10.25 10.38 216 -0.49 -1.49 10.88 11.23 240 -0.52 -1.38 11.38 12.05 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.62 -3.33 9.32 9.13 48 -3.94 -3.71 12.43 12.49 72 -2.67 -2.52 16.69 16.88 96 -1.16 -1.33 22.85 22.35 120 0.71 0.44 29.27 27.99 144 1.50 1.89 35.71 34.91 168 2.33 2.81 40.49 40.52 192 1.92 1.85 45.19 44.70 216 1.82 1.94 49.06 47.27 240 0.91 0.72 53.43 49.74 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.51 -2.59 12.02 11.88 48 -1.58 -1.65 16.14 16.28 72 0.97 0.81 22.73 22.76 96 3.66 3.40 31.78 30.63 120 6.49 5.76 41.18 39.15 144 8.93 8.39 50.89 48.73 168 10.55 10.77 58.91 57.52 192 11.45 11.98 66.18 63.03 216 10.92 11.21 71.97 69.18 240 9.97 9.78 76.72 72.98 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.77 1.80 16.31 16.07 48 3.90 5.06 24.22 23.95 72 8.14 9.42 34.96 35.01 96 13.17 13.49 49.15 47.84 120 16.67 16.62 62.84 61.55 144 21.17 20.81 77.40 75.84 168 24.87 25.17 90.79 87.72 192 26.76 28.48 100.09 98.26 216 24.92 25.00 108.69 105.77 240 23.33 23.16 117.76 112.10 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.11 1.28 1.29 48 0.26 0.24 1.55 1.56 72 0.36 0.33 1.81 1.89 96 0.43 0.43 2.18 2.26 120 0.48 0.48 2.54 2.56 144 0.52 0.51 2.87 2.93 168 0.60 0.61 3.15 3.29 192 0.68 0.70 3.49 3.50 216 0.75 0.75 3.78 3.76 240 0.74 0.76 4.01 4.00 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.09 0.93 0.92 48 0.13 0.15 1.16 1.15 72 0.20 0.24 1.44 1.44 96 0.29 0.30 1.77 1.75 120 0.35 0.33 2.04 2.03 144 0.44 0.43 2.38 2.42 168 0.55 0.54 2.62 2.60 192 0.63 0.63 2.89 2.84 216 0.59 0.58 3.03 2.99 240 0.56 0.55 3.18 3.12 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.38 0.43 1.33 1.32 48 0.42 0.48 1.68 1.72 72 0.42 0.51 2.06 2.07 96 0.42 0.51 2.41 2.40 120 0.44 0.51 2.70 2.70 144 0.50 0.51 2.94 2.97 168 0.54 0.56 3.18 3.15 192 0.58 0.60 3.37 3.32 216 0.44 0.50 3.44 3.41 240 0.44 0.46 3.58 3.46 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.68 3.68 3.64 48 -0.66 -0.75 4.33 4.30 72 -0.72 -0.80 5.03 5.07 96 -0.78 -0.78 5.77 5.83 120 -0.78 -0.84 6.57 6.51 144 -0.82 -0.86 7.21 7.33 168 -0.78 -0.89 7.91 7.94 192 -0.80 -0.87 8.32 8.40 216 -0.96 -1.04 8.60 8.51 240 -0.87 -1.11 8.96 8.85 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.56 4.04 3.98 48 -0.80 -0.76 4.92 5.01 72 -0.92 -0.79 6.07 6.11 96 -1.06 -0.91 7.35 7.23 120 -1.19 -1.01 8.51 8.38 144 -1.28 -1.17 9.68 9.50 168 -1.29 -1.17 10.65 10.48 192 -1.22 -1.17 11.29 11.13 216 -1.34 -1.15 11.99 11.77 240 -1.30 -1.14 12.47 12.06 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.68 5.87 5.62 48 -1.08 -1.05 7.92 7.59 72 -1.23 -1.28 10.00 9.75 96 -1.58 -1.56 12.43 12.03 120 -1.69 -1.63 14.50 14.12 144 -1.54 -1.80 16.41 16.22 168 -1.55 -1.70 18.21 18.02 192 -1.66 -1.68 18.88 18.92 216 -1.66 -1.73 20.10 20.04 240 -1.65 -1.70 20.82 20.82 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.06 -2.35 8.25 10.30 48 -0.41 -0.76 12.34 15.03 72 0.93 -1.08 19.22 21.75 96 1.08 -1.04 24.72 28.21 120 1.87 0.61 33.75 33.54 144 2.71 -0.95 40.62 43.78 168 3.48 -2.94 48.04 51.18 192 6.49 0.09 52.78 60.53 216 11.91 4.72 57.61 63.18 240 10.89 5.86 59.09 71.31 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.45 -5.45 12.64 13.20 48 -4.19 -4.56 18.42 19.99 72 -2.66 -4.14 26.71 28.88 96 -1.37 -4.47 35.92 38.30 120 -0.29 -3.06 46.93 47.89 144 -1.81 -5.57 59.52 63.42 168 -1.06 -7.25 71.51 74.69 192 2.19 -4.12 77.79 85.57 216 7.34 1.20 83.75 85.02 240 7.65 1.66 85.17 96.02 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.17 -3.19 15.73 16.18 48 -0.47 -0.11 23.52 25.60 72 1.48 1.32 33.92 36.90 96 1.31 1.41 45.73 49.88 120 -0.30 2.25 58.70 64.70 144 -2.75 0.94 77.01 85.29 168 -3.71 -1.77 90.98 97.50 192 -2.58 1.47 101.13 114.69 216 2.66 3.49 113.78 118.35 240 1.11 4.80 120.00 133.61 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.06 1.45 1.57 48 -0.10 -0.07 1.67 1.75 72 -0.13 -0.01 1.96 2.09 96 -0.13 -0.05 2.19 2.40 120 -0.03 -0.02 2.51 2.78 144 -0.17 -0.04 2.96 3.31 168 -0.08 -0.15 3.34 3.62 192 -0.21 -0.22 3.59 4.18 216 -0.46 -0.48 3.93 3.99 240 -0.51 -0.63 4.01 4.18 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.03 1.00 0.98 48 0.04 0.06 1.26 1.39 72 0.11 0.08 1.68 1.72 96 0.22 0.15 2.00 2.13 120 0.13 0.15 2.27 2.49 144 0.08 0.17 2.66 2.98 168 0.08 0.27 2.96 3.42 192 0.00 0.31 3.33 3.66 216 0.08 0.24 3.64 3.97 240 0.06 0.29 3.86 4.09 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.14 1.26 1.25 48 0.08 0.21 1.55 1.52 72 -0.01 0.21 1.90 1.85 96 -0.20 0.17 2.25 2.11 120 -0.29 0.07 2.50 2.42 144 -0.48 0.02 2.92 2.76 168 -0.65 -0.12 3.34 3.02 192 -0.71 -0.25 3.60 3.31 216 -0.89 -0.34 3.86 3.63 240 -1.10 -0.39 4.11 3.70 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.33 4.13 4.43 48 -0.26 -0.22 4.92 5.28 72 -0.44 -0.36 5.86 6.22 96 -0.43 -0.51 6.67 7.07 120 -0.79 -0.61 7.64 8.01 144 -0.82 -0.65 8.79 8.92 168 -0.96 -0.66 9.63 10.32 192 -1.05 -0.86 10.26 11.05 216 -1.42 -1.07 10.58 11.03 240 -1.36 -0.95 11.00 11.70 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.58 4.76 4.99 48 -0.45 -0.63 6.15 6.48 72 -0.50 -0.81 7.89 7.99 96 -0.83 -0.71 9.45 9.70 120 -0.99 -0.89 11.01 11.24 144 -1.16 -0.98 12.76 12.81 168 -1.35 -0.54 13.96 14.48 192 -1.58 -0.80 14.81 15.74 216 -2.12 -1.37 15.45 15.94 240 -1.97 -1.40 16.21 17.09 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.61 6.19 6.22 48 -0.93 -0.69 8.02 8.02 72 -0.86 -0.81 10.10 10.27 96 -1.18 -0.45 12.38 12.44 120 -1.39 -0.86 14.84 15.31 144 -1.61 -0.95 17.56 18.15 168 -1.86 -0.91 19.61 19.97 192 -2.28 -1.01 21.95 23.16 216 -2.54 -1.76 23.81 24.55 240 -3.06 -2.32 25.29 26.78