VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 22.4 23.5 48 -0.2 -0.2 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 29.8 31.1 72 -0.1 -0.2 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.0 37.1 38.1 96 -0.2 -0.2 2.6 2.6 0.9 0.9 44.1 45.3 120 -0.2 -0.2 3.4 3.3 0.9 0.9 51.6 52.3 144 -0.2 -0.3 4.2 4.1 0.8 0.8 58.0 59.0 168 -0.3 -0.3 4.9 4.9 0.8 0.8 63.3 64.2 192 -0.4 -0.4 5.5 5.5 0.7 0.7 66.8 69.0 216 -0.4 -0.5 6.1 6.1 0.7 0.7 70.8 73.0 240 -0.5 -0.5 6.5 6.4 0.6 0.6 73.0 75.2 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.5 1.1 7.3 7.5 1.0 1.0 16.9 17.1 48 2.6 1.9 13.3 13.3 1.0 1.0 24.7 24.8 72 4.0 3.4 20.6 20.4 1.0 1.0 32.6 32.5 96 4.9 4.7 29.4 28.8 0.9 0.9 40.8 40.5 120 5.7 5.4 39.5 38.5 0.9 0.9 48.6 48.0 144 6.7 5.9 49.9 48.8 0.9 0.9 55.8 55.3 168 7.2 6.7 59.3 58.2 0.8 0.8 61.3 60.8 192 7.6 7.3 67.2 66.4 0.8 0.8 65.2 65.4 216 7.8 7.5 74.5 74.5 0.7 0.7 69.3 69.9 240 8.4 7.8 80.0 79.8 0.7 0.7 72.6 73.1 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.4 4.3 11.1 11.1 1.0 1.0 14.7 14.8 48 7.6 7.2 20.0 19.9 1.0 1.0 22.4 22.6 72 10.5 10.3 30.0 30.0 1.0 1.0 29.8 30.1 96 12.7 12.6 42.2 41.4 0.9 0.9 37.4 37.2 120 14.5 14.5 56.3 55.0 0.9 0.9 44.9 44.3 144 16.3 16.0 71.2 70.5 0.9 0.9 51.8 51.6 168 17.6 17.5 85.1 84.3 0.8 0.8 57.2 57.2 192 18.9 18.7 97.5 96.2 0.8 0.8 61.4 61.5 216 17.7 17.3 107.4 106.7 0.7 0.7 65.2 65.4 240 18.3 17.4 114.4 114.0 0.7 0.7 67.9 68.1 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 72 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 96 0.3 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.9 120 0.3 0.3 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.8 144 0.4 0.4 2.3 2.3 0.8 0.8 168 0.4 0.4 2.6 2.6 0.7 0.8 192 0.5 0.5 2.9 2.9 0.7 0.7 216 0.4 0.4 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 240 0.5 0.5 3.2 3.2 0.7 0.6 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 48 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 0.1 0.1 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.1 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.9 120 0.0 0.1 2.6 2.6 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.1 3.0 2.9 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.1 3.2 3.2 0.7 0.7 192 0.0 0.1 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 -0.1 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 240 -0.2 -0.2 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 3.1 3.1 48 -0.4 -0.4 4.4 4.4 72 -0.5 -0.5 5.6 5.6 96 -0.6 -0.6 7.0 6.9 120 -0.7 -0.7 8.4 8.3 144 -0.8 -0.8 9.7 9.5 168 -0.9 -0.9 10.7 10.5 192 -1.0 -1.0 11.4 11.4 216 -1.0 -1.1 12.2 12.2 240 -1.0 -1.1 12.8 12.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 4.5 4.6 48 -0.5 -0.5 6.6 6.7 72 -0.6 -0.6 8.6 8.6 96 -0.7 -0.7 10.7 10.7 120 -0.8 -0.7 12.9 12.7 144 -0.8 -0.8 15.0 14.9 168 -0.9 -0.9 16.7 16.6 192 -0.9 -0.9 18.1 18.0 216 -1.0 -1.0 19.4 19.4 240 -1.0 -1.0 20.2 20.3 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.6 -0.5 3.8 3.9 0.9 0.9 33.4 32.9 48 -0.8 -0.8 5.9 5.8 0.9 0.9 40.8 40.2 72 -1.3 -1.4 7.0 7.0 0.8 0.9 44.2 43.8 96 -1.8 -1.7 8.0 8.0 0.8 0.8 47.0 46.8 120 -2.2 -2.3 8.7 8.8 0.8 0.8 49.0 48.8 144 -2.5 -2.8 9.5 9.6 0.8 0.8 50.8 50.6 168 -2.9 -3.0 10.5 10.3 0.8 0.8 52.7 52.5 192 -2.9 -3.1 10.9 10.9 0.7 0.7 54.3 54.1 216 -3.1 -3.1 11.7 12.4 0.7 0.7 58.7 58.8 240 -2.7 -3.0 12.5 13.0 0.7 0.7 60.1 60.5 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.9 3.3 6.5 6.9 0.9 0.9 31.0 31.2 48 4.2 4.8 9.5 9.8 0.9 0.9 38.1 38.2 72 4.7 5.2 11.6 11.8 0.9 0.9 42.5 42.6 96 5.6 6.3 14.1 14.3 0.9 0.9 46.4 46.4 120 6.3 6.8 16.5 16.5 0.8 0.8 49.8 49.8 144 6.5 7.0 18.6 18.5 0.8 0.8 53.3 52.9 168 6.8 7.3 20.3 20.6 0.8 0.8 56.1 56.5 192 7.0 7.7 22.0 22.1 0.8 0.8 58.6 59.0 216 5.4 6.4 23.2 23.5 0.7 0.7 61.6 61.8 240 4.9 5.8 24.3 24.8 0.7 0.7 63.8 63.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 48 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 72 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 96 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 120 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 168 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 192 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 -0.1 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.6 240 -0.1 -0.1 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 96 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 120 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 144 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 168 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 192 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 216 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 240 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 -0.1 1.9 1.9 48 -0.1 -0.1 2.6 2.6 72 -0.1 -0.2 3.1 3.0 96 -0.2 -0.2 3.4 3.3 120 -0.2 -0.2 3.7 3.7 144 -0.2 -0.2 4.0 3.9 168 -0.2 -0.2 4.2 4.2 192 -0.3 -0.2 4.5 4.4 216 -0.2 -0.1 4.8 4.7 240 -0.2 -0.1 5.0 5.0 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.3 4.3 4.3 48 -0.6 -0.6 5.8 5.9 72 -0.8 -0.8 6.9 6.9 96 -0.9 -0.9 7.8 7.8 120 -0.9 -0.9 8.7 8.6 144 -1.0 -1.0 9.4 9.3 168 -1.1 -1.0 10.0 10.1 192 -1.3 -1.2 10.6 10.7 216 -1.3 -1.2 11.3 11.4 240 -1.3 -1.2 12.0 11.9 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8 1.0 1.0 20.8 20.7 48 -0.1 0.0 2.9 2.8 1.0 1.0 29.3 29.0 72 -0.1 0.0 4.1 3.9 0.9 0.9 37.7 37.0 96 0.0 0.0 5.4 5.2 0.9 0.9 45.5 44.5 120 0.0 0.0 6.8 6.6 0.9 0.9 52.7 51.6 144 0.0 0.1 8.2 8.0 0.8 0.9 59.0 58.4 168 0.2 0.2 9.4 9.4 0.8 0.8 64.0 64.1 192 0.3 0.3 10.7 10.5 0.8 0.8 68.5 68.3 216 0.5 0.5 11.5 11.1 0.7 0.7 71.8 70.5 240 0.4 0.5 12.1 12.0 0.7 0.7 74.1 73.2 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.9 -0.9 11.9 12.0 1.0 1.0 14.4 14.4 48 -1.6 -1.5 23.0 22.0 1.0 1.0 22.0 21.6 72 -1.7 -1.6 36.2 34.6 1.0 1.0 29.3 28.6 96 -1.6 -2.0 50.4 48.5 0.9 0.9 36.2 35.3 120 -1.5 -1.7 64.6 64.4 0.9 0.9 42.5 42.0 144 -1.6 -1.6 80.2 80.2 0.9 0.9 48.5 48.0 168 -1.6 -2.0 95.4 96.5 0.8 0.8 53.6 53.7 192 -2.2 -2.6 110.4 110.0 0.8 0.8 58.4 57.7 216 -2.6 -3.1 119.8 117.2 0.8 0.8 61.1 60.0 240 -3.7 -3.9 127.9 125.8 0.7 0.7 63.4 62.3 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.1 2.2 14.3 14.6 1.0 1.0 11.1 11.2 48 3.7 4.2 28.3 27.2 1.0 1.0 17.3 16.9 72 5.1 5.4 45.3 43.3 1.0 1.0 23.6 23.1 96 6.2 6.0 64.1 61.4 0.9 0.9 29.8 29.1 120 6.3 6.5 82.6 83.0 0.9 0.9 35.6 35.4 144 5.1 5.8 103.8 104.9 0.9 0.9 41.4 41.2 168 3.6 4.2 123.9 126.8 0.8 0.8 46.3 46.7 192 2.7 3.1 143.3 144.6 0.8 0.8 50.9 50.3 216 0.8 0.9 157.2 155.8 0.8 0.8 53.7 52.8 240 -0.4 -0.3 168.8 168.2 0.7 0.7 55.9 55.2 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.8 2.8 0.9 0.9 144 0.2 0.1 3.3 3.3 0.8 0.8 168 0.1 0.1 3.7 3.8 0.8 0.8 192 0.0 0.0 4.1 4.1 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 -0.1 4.4 4.4 0.7 0.7 240 -0.1 -0.1 4.7 4.7 0.7 0.6 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.3 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 0.3 0.3 1.9 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 0.3 0.3 2.3 2.2 0.9 0.9 120 0.3 0.3 2.7 2.6 0.8 0.8 144 0.2 0.3 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.8 168 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.3 0.7 0.7 192 0.1 0.2 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 216 0.1 0.1 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.7 240 0.1 0.1 3.8 3.8 0.7 0.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 0.0 4.2 4.2 48 0.0 0.0 6.3 6.2 72 -0.1 -0.1 8.3 8.2 96 -0.1 -0.1 10.3 10.1 120 -0.2 -0.2 12.1 11.9 144 -0.3 -0.3 13.9 13.8 168 -0.5 -0.4 15.6 15.7 192 -0.5 -0.5 17.0 17.0 216 -0.5 -0.5 18.0 17.7 240 -0.4 -0.5 18.9 18.6 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.1 48 -0.1 -0.1 7.8 7.6 72 -0.2 -0.2 10.6 10.3 96 -0.3 -0.3 13.3 13.1 120 -0.5 -0.4 16.1 15.9 144 -0.6 -0.5 18.9 18.9 168 -0.7 -0.6 21.5 21.7 192 -0.7 -0.7 23.7 23.5 216 -0.8 -0.7 25.3 25.0 240 -0.6 -0.6 26.8 26.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.47 -1.92 7.85 8.27 48 -2.47 -3.55 10.83 11.26 72 -2.83 -4.12 14.88 14.89 96 -2.52 -1.95 18.51 18.31 120 -1.62 -1.80 23.70 24.54 144 -0.06 -1.13 28.56 30.79 168 0.34 -1.26 32.33 34.15 192 0.23 -0.36 36.76 37.17 216 0.24 1.23 39.12 41.46 240 1.41 5.24 42.43 43.93 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 -1.34 9.31 9.24 48 0.63 -1.73 13.74 13.46 72 1.71 -1.01 19.77 20.08 96 3.61 2.57 26.78 27.58 120 5.76 3.98 36.07 36.80 144 8.52 5.55 44.55 46.10 168 9.50 6.06 50.11 52.52 192 9.18 6.64 55.18 57.22 216 10.58 8.96 59.76 63.26 240 12.60 13.73 65.89 68.55 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.73 4.30 14.71 14.19 48 5.26 5.18 22.95 22.30 72 8.59 6.75 32.58 32.31 96 11.98 11.59 42.35 42.86 120 16.73 15.29 56.07 55.91 144 20.77 18.52 70.96 71.63 168 22.10 18.48 83.04 83.40 192 22.27 19.53 93.58 94.13 216 23.50 19.61 96.14 101.08 240 28.23 27.87 105.11 106.42 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.04 1.37 1.36 48 0.38 0.13 1.64 1.58 72 0.49 0.23 2.01 1.88 96 0.59 0.32 2.53 2.34 120 0.65 0.39 2.99 2.77 144 0.68 0.44 3.39 3.29 168 0.67 0.43 3.83 3.64 192 0.70 0.39 4.04 3.84 216 0.96 0.50 4.29 4.21 240 1.02 0.54 4.57 4.38 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.08 0.94 0.94 48 0.07 0.11 1.19 1.16 72 0.18 0.17 1.45 1.44 96 0.27 0.27 1.63 1.68 120 0.39 0.37 1.97 1.96 144 0.46 0.45 2.29 2.30 168 0.52 0.45 2.56 2.54 192 0.46 0.50 2.80 2.81 216 0.57 0.51 2.87 2.95 240 0.74 0.62 3.01 3.03 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.51 0.62 1.21 1.27 48 0.52 0.60 1.49 1.53 72 0.50 0.58 1.77 1.79 96 0.47 0.50 2.06 2.05 120 0.52 0.62 2.37 2.38 144 0.60 0.65 2.54 2.63 168 0.58 0.60 2.82 2.76 192 0.61 0.57 2.93 2.92 216 0.45 0.41 2.98 3.04 240 0.49 0.40 3.05 3.05 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.63 3.96 4.15 48 -0.16 -0.65 4.56 4.89 72 -0.19 -0.72 5.21 5.51 96 -0.38 -0.93 5.80 6.17 120 -0.47 -1.05 6.53 7.07 144 -0.63 -1.23 7.40 7.85 168 -0.74 -1.41 8.08 8.38 192 -0.84 -1.53 8.37 9.04 216 -0.60 -1.80 8.71 9.26 240 -0.89 -1.85 9.06 9.74 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.35 4.46 4.35 48 -0.70 -0.47 5.47 5.37 72 -0.92 -0.65 6.38 6.43 96 -1.25 -0.96 7.53 7.51 120 -1.54 -1.02 8.53 8.66 144 -1.68 -1.35 9.95 9.85 168 -1.91 -1.52 10.99 10.83 192 -2.22 -1.62 11.37 11.73 216 -2.49 -2.03 11.75 12.12 240 -2.56 -2.19 12.87 13.27 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.95 6.45 6.54 48 -1.14 -1.20 8.41 8.45 72 -1.36 -1.84 10.42 10.29 96 -1.74 -2.03 12.10 12.04 120 -2.00 -2.20 14.03 13.97 144 -2.29 -2.60 16.06 16.35 168 -2.28 -2.69 18.45 18.14 192 -2.34 -2.63 19.83 19.61 216 -2.85 -2.85 20.27 20.96 240 -2.72 -3.43 21.58 22.32 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.14 -2.30 8.23 7.74 48 -4.17 -1.99 10.48 10.12 72 -3.91 -3.10 13.31 13.24 96 -3.35 -2.14 18.15 18.75 120 -2.10 -0.94 24.86 25.07 144 0.53 -0.54 33.06 30.29 168 1.93 2.69 38.38 35.86 192 -1.00 5.71 43.73 39.55 216 -4.28 2.91 45.47 43.73 240 -4.69 -2.45 48.83 50.63 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.97 0.30 10.45 10.00 48 -1.07 3.20 14.44 14.35 72 1.75 5.15 19.34 20.94 96 5.13 6.70 27.91 26.33 120 6.12 8.56 38.55 38.18 144 7.01 10.39 52.54 49.57 168 7.39 13.42 63.76 59.80 192 11.27 18.94 71.00 69.65 216 5.71 17.64 77.04 78.52 240 2.67 11.07 83.37 89.77 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.82 6.73 13.23 14.77 48 6.61 13.99 20.61 24.78 72 14.23 20.04 31.08 35.00 96 21.19 24.72 45.29 43.90 120 23.13 24.73 60.75 57.93 144 22.35 30.11 81.36 77.01 168 21.12 31.76 96.77 92.40 192 24.85 40.22 107.19 109.04 216 22.22 39.00 118.06 122.85 240 16.91 31.50 126.61 137.09 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.29 1.05 1.08 48 0.20 0.39 1.25 1.29 72 0.32 0.52 1.47 1.54 96 0.36 0.52 1.72 1.77 120 0.36 0.57 2.14 2.26 144 0.37 0.70 2.69 2.68 168 0.30 0.67 3.36 3.07 192 0.47 0.86 3.77 3.62 216 0.57 1.30 3.94 4.20 240 0.33 1.24 4.08 4.40 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.13 0.78 0.80 48 0.23 0.35 1.06 1.04 72 0.45 0.54 1.33 1.32 96 0.59 0.69 1.75 1.64 120 0.71 0.73 2.09 1.95 144 0.64 0.77 2.59 2.41 168 0.58 0.70 2.96 2.77 192 0.69 0.91 3.18 3.08 216 0.65 0.86 3.38 3.40 240 0.51 0.78 3.46 3.67 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.39 0.45 1.09 1.16 48 0.42 0.50 1.44 1.50 72 0.44 0.62 1.85 1.86 96 0.53 0.65 2.29 2.17 120 0.61 0.72 2.47 2.53 144 0.61 0.73 2.79 2.75 168 0.52 0.72 3.01 2.95 192 0.52 0.68 3.07 3.10 216 0.72 0.78 3.20 3.24 240 0.71 0.83 3.30 3.31 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.55 3.52 3.36 48 -0.80 -0.66 4.05 3.99 72 -0.83 -0.70 4.69 4.47 96 -0.83 -0.65 5.37 5.17 120 -1.06 -0.79 6.13 6.13 144 -1.22 -1.05 7.27 6.61 168 -1.45 -1.47 7.78 7.23 192 -1.54 -1.71 8.23 7.79 216 -1.52 -1.68 8.47 8.12 240 -1.51 -1.54 8.74 8.59 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.51 3.88 3.71 48 -0.61 -0.72 4.83 4.69 72 -0.77 -0.79 5.75 5.66 96 -0.96 -0.80 7.05 6.87 120 -0.77 -0.90 8.69 8.31 144 -1.15 -1.01 10.24 9.54 168 -1.11 -1.34 11.52 10.75 192 -1.40 -1.64 12.05 11.85 216 -1.31 -1.82 12.83 13.11 240 -1.20 -1.67 13.65 14.34 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.80 5.33 5.04 48 -1.28 -1.00 7.27 6.99 72 -1.31 -1.28 8.61 8.60 96 -1.63 -1.16 10.62 10.25 120 -1.37 -1.21 13.58 13.12 144 -1.82 -1.49 16.57 15.53 168 -1.39 -1.72 18.81 17.31 192 -1.43 -1.97 19.25 19.61 216 -1.30 -2.39 22.11 21.75 240 -1.26 -1.95 22.90 23.05 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.16 -3.71 10.02 9.94 48 -4.63 -3.41 12.77 12.53 72 -2.79 -1.02 15.86 15.54 96 -2.26 -1.79 20.42 19.34 120 -3.63 -3.41 24.41 22.86 144 -4.61 -4.73 28.08 27.61 168 -5.57 -6.88 32.76 32.71 192 -6.32 -7.03 38.62 37.01 216 -4.83 -6.57 41.78 39.51 240 -7.98 -6.30 45.13 40.26 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.63 -2.26 13.25 12.82 48 -0.89 0.34 16.04 15.67 72 3.14 4.69 20.54 20.45 96 5.19 5.35 26.53 25.45 120 4.90 4.60 31.54 30.15 144 4.76 4.40 36.07 36.20 168 5.53 3.70 41.92 41.43 192 5.46 4.47 48.23 45.96 216 5.40 6.88 54.50 50.19 240 5.10 9.21 59.52 54.34 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.55 -3.88 19.47 19.52 48 1.53 2.09 23.89 24.26 72 7.99 9.47 32.05 31.80 96 11.52 10.85 40.96 39.54 120 11.60 10.84 47.58 46.88 144 11.64 11.36 57.48 56.91 168 13.17 11.39 65.94 66.94 192 13.37 13.47 74.61 72.48 216 13.01 16.80 82.89 77.49 240 14.93 22.62 89.96 85.68 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.30 1.52 1.58 48 0.54 0.61 1.83 1.92 72 0.75 0.78 2.13 2.26 96 0.91 0.97 2.47 2.65 120 1.06 1.05 2.88 2.96 144 1.19 1.26 3.19 3.29 168 1.33 1.38 3.54 3.64 192 1.31 1.40 3.80 3.87 216 1.47 1.74 4.07 4.27 240 1.47 1.80 4.28 4.35 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.07 1.04 1.07 48 0.09 -0.01 1.22 1.25 72 0.17 0.08 1.42 1.39 96 0.22 0.09 1.62 1.59 120 0.22 0.13 1.79 1.80 144 0.24 0.15 2.06 2.02 168 0.32 0.22 2.26 2.29 192 0.36 0.28 2.46 2.39 216 0.37 0.41 2.60 2.53 240 0.49 0.52 2.72 2.74 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.24 1.30 1.32 48 0.35 0.42 1.66 1.66 72 0.50 0.48 1.92 1.97 96 0.52 0.64 2.18 2.18 120 0.48 0.65 2.33 2.40 144 0.46 0.65 2.53 2.56 168 0.41 0.59 2.69 2.76 192 0.42 0.57 2.85 2.82 216 0.35 0.52 3.04 2.95 240 0.44 0.77 3.14 3.14 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.52 3.98 4.12 48 -0.80 -0.51 4.70 4.68 72 -0.86 -0.63 5.49 5.42 96 -0.97 -0.56 6.32 6.04 120 -1.03 -0.62 6.96 6.74 144 -1.23 -0.70 7.50 7.44 168 -1.16 -0.81 8.12 7.94 192 -1.22 -0.81 8.67 8.48 216 -1.26 -0.99 8.95 8.51 240 -1.23 -0.91 8.99 8.81 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.56 4.50 4.49 48 -1.07 -0.94 5.53 5.47 72 -1.35 -1.14 6.50 6.42 96 -1.47 -1.24 7.60 7.53 120 -1.54 -1.26 8.42 8.31 144 -1.72 -1.47 9.22 9.06 168 -1.85 -1.63 9.84 9.75 192 -1.97 -1.84 10.60 10.32 216 -2.00 -2.11 11.19 10.76 240 -1.82 -1.80 11.34 11.35 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.57 6.75 7.08 48 -0.81 -1.15 8.66 8.94 72 -1.11 -1.45 10.15 10.60 96 -1.04 -1.20 11.87 12.16 120 -1.20 -1.10 13.22 13.32 144 -1.19 -1.22 14.51 14.88 168 -1.34 -1.37 15.80 16.08 192 -1.37 -1.74 16.75 16.66 216 -1.28 -1.66 17.98 17.74 240 -1.26 -1.68 18.50 18.56 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.70 -1.49 6.81 8.75 48 -0.36 2.95 9.20 12.91 72 1.59 5.42 12.43 17.17 96 1.74 5.04 18.96 23.76 120 1.56 7.73 26.08 28.71 144 2.20 8.39 29.60 40.49 168 3.13 6.30 35.73 48.91 192 0.08 4.49 43.55 49.76 216 1.58 9.30 50.44 60.54 240 5.70 15.40 54.26 63.26 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.26 -4.99 10.74 12.57 48 -3.70 0.11 12.86 16.84 72 -1.57 1.75 18.00 24.24 96 -1.80 1.38 26.21 31.72 120 -2.18 3.69 37.05 37.74 144 -0.90 4.55 41.42 51.36 168 -2.01 0.45 50.97 66.59 192 -6.90 -7.28 58.57 68.54 216 -8.42 0.70 70.93 81.98 240 -5.23 4.12 73.78 87.58 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.78 -3.16 12.74 15.26 48 1.79 4.55 18.10 23.48 72 3.45 6.04 27.03 32.20 96 3.94 6.93 37.53 41.97 120 0.55 6.27 54.18 54.16 144 1.47 8.17 58.93 66.66 168 -1.51 2.88 73.71 89.56 192 -8.02 -7.60 89.76 96.61 216 -12.27 -1.22 96.93 109.77 240 -9.32 0.38 108.22 115.83 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.09 1.33 1.31 48 0.06 0.01 1.45 1.65 72 0.02 -0.04 1.56 1.79 96 0.02 -0.13 1.77 2.00 120 -0.03 -0.12 2.04 2.19 144 -0.01 -0.15 2.30 2.36 168 -0.02 -0.17 2.48 2.73 192 0.06 -0.40 2.72 2.93 216 -0.03 -0.27 2.84 3.17 240 -0.13 -0.42 3.27 3.40 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.09 0.86 0.98 48 0.06 0.05 1.07 1.14 72 0.12 0.03 1.33 1.39 96 0.18 0.16 1.59 1.52 120 0.12 0.14 2.00 1.99 144 0.10 0.12 2.23 2.19 168 -0.01 0.04 2.43 2.43 192 -0.15 -0.23 2.84 2.76 216 -0.37 -0.17 3.00 2.96 240 -0.27 -0.46 3.30 3.41 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.36 0.37 1.20 1.29 48 0.27 0.21 1.43 1.46 72 0.18 0.18 1.75 1.84 96 0.05 0.19 2.11 2.01 120 -0.03 0.03 2.51 2.60 144 -0.16 -0.08 2.71 2.79 168 -0.18 -0.26 2.96 3.01 192 -0.19 -0.17 3.10 3.27 216 -0.41 -0.33 3.33 3.59 240 -0.23 -0.25 3.61 3.76 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.03 3.58 3.82 48 -0.30 -0.17 4.37 4.54 72 -0.31 -0.20 5.02 5.00 96 -0.46 0.01 5.83 6.12 120 -0.64 -0.24 6.85 6.69 144 -0.61 -0.29 7.42 7.48 168 -0.88 -0.46 8.11 7.99 192 -0.81 -0.42 9.18 9.05 216 -1.27 -0.82 10.16 9.66 240 -1.33 -0.70 11.00 10.15 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.67 4.51 4.53 48 -1.04 -0.72 5.53 5.63 72 -1.22 -1.02 6.51 6.44 96 -1.46 -1.05 8.17 7.78 120 -1.71 -1.37 9.25 9.02 144 -1.74 -1.15 10.61 9.97 168 -1.90 -1.24 11.91 11.20 192 -1.87 -1.25 13.28 13.02 216 -2.22 -1.51 13.99 13.77 240 -1.78 -1.24 15.38 14.12 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.76 5.73 5.99 48 -1.50 -1.24 7.18 7.59 72 -1.87 -1.89 9.07 9.02 96 -2.10 -1.74 11.71 11.56 120 -2.47 -2.09 13.69 13.22 144 -2.51 -1.96 15.45 14.79 168 -2.69 -1.33 17.85 16.81 192 -2.91 -1.29 19.48 19.02 216 -2.62 -1.60 21.80 20.61 240 -2.37 -1.17 23.84 22.62 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.79 -3.98 9.57 8.96 48 -3.44 -2.85 10.15 9.17 72 -2.66 -2.78 10.56 9.86 96 -2.53 -1.96 11.37 10.63 120 -2.74 -2.28 12.06 11.24 144 -3.75 -3.22 12.64 12.20 168 -4.27 -4.84 13.83 13.09 192 -4.83 -5.11 14.16 13.57 216 -5.79 -5.66 15.47 14.44 240 -4.62 -4.93 16.25 14.37 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.89 -6.62 13.00 11.83 48 -6.32 -5.72 13.13 11.76 72 -5.76 -5.50 13.29 11.97 96 -4.95 -4.16 13.95 11.81 120 -5.09 -4.05 14.72 12.47 144 -5.97 -5.15 15.65 13.43 168 -6.53 -6.60 16.98 14.26 192 -7.04 -6.87 17.53 14.51 216 -7.77 -7.37 18.53 15.56 240 -6.52 -6.59 18.78 15.34 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.55 -5.54 15.30 14.89 48 -3.60 -3.09 15.71 14.93 72 -2.10 -1.60 16.24 15.54 96 -0.71 0.43 17.25 16.21 120 -0.76 1.21 18.43 17.15 144 -1.76 0.64 19.23 18.12 168 -2.75 -0.91 20.22 18.91 192 -3.41 -1.40 21.26 19.38 216 -5.43 -3.48 22.67 20.35 240 -5.46 -4.41 23.52 22.47 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.05 1.13 1.08 48 0.00 -0.01 1.15 1.07 72 -0.01 -0.02 1.16 1.09 96 0.00 -0.05 1.21 1.14 120 -0.01 -0.03 1.27 1.13 144 0.01 -0.04 1.28 1.20 168 0.04 -0.04 1.35 1.22 192 0.08 0.01 1.43 1.30 216 0.05 -0.06 1.47 1.39 240 0.06 -0.10 1.61 1.43 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.09 0.92 0.91 48 -0.12 -0.07 0.98 0.97 72 -0.14 -0.03 1.05 1.02 96 -0.10 -0.01 1.06 1.03 120 -0.10 0.03 1.11 1.06 144 -0.15 0.04 1.20 1.10 168 -0.16 0.03 1.21 1.14 192 -0.17 0.02 1.26 1.17 216 -0.16 0.00 1.28 1.26 240 -0.16 0.05 1.35 1.26 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.53 0.37 0.92 0.82 48 0.60 0.48 1.02 0.96 72 0.64 0.54 1.10 1.05 96 0.65 0.59 1.15 1.12 120 0.66 0.61 1.22 1.18 144 0.69 0.62 1.28 1.20 168 0.70 0.60 1.33 1.24 192 0.67 0.58 1.36 1.25 216 0.50 0.40 1.27 1.19 240 0.42 0.26 1.29 1.17 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.70 3.84 3.70 48 -0.47 -0.68 4.23 4.07 72 -0.46 -0.72 4.54 4.28 96 -0.42 -0.65 4.80 4.49 120 -0.47 -0.64 5.05 4.79 144 -0.44 -0.71 5.34 4.96 168 -0.55 -0.95 5.59 5.20 192 -0.57 -0.92 5.79 5.48 216 -0.59 -0.87 6.09 5.80 240 -0.56 -0.85 6.31 6.03 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.85 4.37 4.22 48 -0.99 -0.92 4.79 4.52 72 -1.06 -0.99 5.14 4.89 96 -1.14 -1.06 5.66 5.21 120 -1.16 -1.04 6.08 5.64 144 -1.09 -1.03 6.50 5.92 168 -1.08 -1.03 6.85 6.20 192 -1.05 -1.05 7.24 6.50 216 -1.07 -1.07 7.48 6.90 240 -1.12 -0.98 7.80 7.12 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.81 5.80 5.68 48 -1.16 -1.04 6.52 6.58 72 -1.24 -1.15 7.19 7.20 96 -1.18 -1.23 7.93 7.89 120 -1.10 -1.13 8.44 8.53 144 -1.03 -1.04 9.00 9.03 168 -0.87 -1.07 9.63 9.71 192 -0.98 -1.07 10.01 10.62 216 -1.10 -1.13 10.69 11.03 240 -1.13 -1.23 11.29 11.57 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.88 -2.39 9.04 8.86 48 -3.04 -2.53 12.17 11.97 72 -2.68 -2.26 16.25 15.87 96 -2.06 -1.65 21.41 21.38 120 -2.08 -1.10 27.48 27.86 144 -0.86 -1.35 34.46 34.31 168 -0.93 -0.63 41.38 40.32 192 -2.09 0.34 46.64 43.83 216 -2.44 0.49 50.15 49.49 240 -2.34 0.26 52.96 53.51 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.02 -1.61 11.91 11.49 48 -0.52 0.10 16.60 16.33 72 1.73 1.94 23.21 23.10 96 3.71 3.94 32.35 31.42 120 4.42 5.34 42.46 41.91 144 7.21 6.19 53.51 52.57 168 6.96 7.32 64.33 63.27 192 6.71 8.78 72.94 71.06 216 6.78 9.66 78.29 78.42 240 6.53 9.72 83.68 85.62 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.33 2.10 15.96 16.42 48 4.15 6.14 23.33 24.35 72 9.03 10.23 33.41 34.23 96 13.54 14.20 47.06 45.98 120 15.43 15.83 61.95 59.49 144 18.83 17.89 78.17 77.61 168 17.38 19.45 94.30 93.64 192 18.56 21.60 107.50 105.90 216 17.76 19.69 114.61 115.69 240 17.85 22.00 122.42 125.08 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.14 1.27 1.30 48 0.30 0.29 1.54 1.59 72 0.43 0.39 1.88 1.87 96 0.50 0.48 2.28 2.26 120 0.53 0.53 2.74 2.72 144 0.61 0.63 3.25 3.17 168 0.62 0.61 3.75 3.54 192 0.72 0.69 4.11 3.87 216 0.87 0.86 4.25 4.30 240 0.81 0.91 4.49 4.53 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.05 0.91 0.93 48 0.11 0.14 1.17 1.18 72 0.22 0.24 1.47 1.48 96 0.33 0.34 1.81 1.79 120 0.40 0.40 2.20 2.11 144 0.47 0.44 2.54 2.54 168 0.47 0.45 2.95 2.91 192 0.51 0.51 3.24 3.21 216 0.48 0.47 3.35 3.41 240 0.53 0.56 3.51 3.53 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.32 0.39 1.23 1.30 48 0.33 0.35 1.66 1.69 72 0.31 0.32 2.04 2.06 96 0.32 0.36 2.49 2.44 120 0.33 0.36 2.78 2.81 144 0.29 0.33 3.11 3.16 168 0.27 0.25 3.35 3.37 192 0.22 0.18 3.49 3.50 216 0.15 0.10 3.59 3.62 240 0.14 0.09 3.68 3.74 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.53 3.72 3.79 48 -0.60 -0.62 4.39 4.44 72 -0.62 -0.70 5.06 5.12 96 -0.72 -0.68 5.78 5.96 120 -0.81 -0.82 6.65 6.76 144 -1.00 -0.96 7.60 7.58 168 -1.11 -1.20 8.16 8.16 192 -1.20 -1.31 8.57 8.77 216 -1.14 -1.44 8.96 8.96 240 -1.17 -1.38 9.20 9.32 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.51 4.21 4.13 48 -0.70 -0.72 5.32 5.27 72 -0.87 -0.81 6.37 6.41 96 -1.05 -0.95 7.69 7.78 120 -1.07 -0.99 9.10 9.02 144 -1.28 -1.13 10.55 10.31 168 -1.40 -1.43 11.48 11.33 192 -1.69 -1.48 12.24 12.28 216 -1.77 -1.74 12.87 13.08 240 -1.80 -1.64 13.60 13.95 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.65 5.74 5.79 48 -0.85 -0.89 7.73 7.76 72 -1.04 -1.18 9.50 9.68 96 -1.21 -1.18 11.58 11.81 120 -1.15 -1.23 14.09 13.92 144 -1.37 -1.39 16.08 16.29 168 -1.33 -1.49 18.51 17.93 192 -1.36 -1.53 19.47 19.50 216 -1.53 -1.88 20.58 20.97 240 -1.63 -1.71 21.77 22.14 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.02 -2.20 8.58 10.07 48 -0.77 -0.88 12.37 14.36 72 -0.16 0.28 18.38 20.64 96 1.00 -0.60 25.28 28.16 120 1.09 -0.85 34.02 37.55 144 1.16 -3.11 40.68 47.13 168 2.09 -7.36 48.64 54.57 192 0.13 -4.53 53.62 58.65 216 0.43 3.26 59.84 61.76 240 5.46 2.74 63.79 68.26 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.47 -5.08 12.65 13.45 48 -3.08 -3.71 18.01 19.86 72 -2.53 -2.88 26.83 29.46 96 -1.18 -3.69 34.96 38.98 120 -1.56 -4.71 47.09 53.58 144 -1.17 -9.77 57.73 65.15 168 -2.48 -14.63 71.30 79.74 192 -6.77 -15.47 76.29 84.16 216 -7.99 -5.13 83.02 91.93 240 -4.16 -0.67 88.62 94.50 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.29 -3.26 15.98 16.50 48 0.37 -0.23 24.43 26.29 72 2.14 1.48 36.63 38.78 96 3.95 1.16 48.69 53.07 120 2.01 -0.71 64.14 69.31 144 1.48 -5.99 78.22 87.40 168 -1.99 -15.15 96.63 108.37 192 -7.61 -15.55 109.80 116.92 216 -11.12 -6.52 113.23 130.95 240 -6.62 -0.01 129.22 136.53 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.01 1.40 1.51 48 0.04 -0.05 1.62 1.76 72 0.03 -0.13 1.81 2.10 96 0.05 -0.12 2.20 2.43 120 0.05 -0.08 2.51 2.81 144 0.12 -0.24 2.93 3.13 168 0.10 -0.39 3.07 3.65 192 0.13 -0.31 3.49 3.94 216 -0.36 -0.54 3.73 4.24 240 -0.45 -0.44 4.15 4.39 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.05 0.98 1.02 48 0.08 0.11 1.27 1.31 72 0.13 0.09 1.56 1.65 96 0.18 0.15 1.94 2.01 120 0.14 0.05 2.28 2.41 144 0.10 -0.12 2.65 2.75 168 -0.04 -0.24 3.01 3.22 192 -0.18 -0.25 3.31 3.49 216 -0.30 -0.17 3.37 3.91 240 -0.17 0.10 3.83 4.23 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.25 1.24 1.29 48 0.19 0.29 1.55 1.57 72 0.18 0.31 1.88 1.82 96 0.06 0.25 2.23 2.10 120 0.05 0.28 2.65 2.60 144 -0.10 0.16 2.85 2.78 168 -0.22 -0.01 3.08 2.88 192 -0.29 0.16 3.20 3.13 216 -0.43 -0.12 3.39 3.37 240 -0.18 -0.16 3.70 3.40 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.33 3.96 4.15 48 -0.37 -0.40 4.73 5.09 72 -0.44 -0.46 5.57 5.84 96 -0.60 -0.44 6.62 6.86 120 -0.64 -0.53 7.60 7.72 144 -0.60 -0.41 8.41 9.08 168 -0.71 -0.23 9.71 10.18 192 -0.86 -0.25 10.50 10.80 216 -1.52 -0.88 10.98 11.15 240 -1.56 -0.90 11.81 11.90 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.55 4.95 5.07 48 -0.77 -0.65 6.21 6.46 72 -0.73 -1.01 7.57 7.77 96 -1.11 -0.98 9.31 9.26 120 -1.39 -1.36 10.67 10.82 144 -1.50 -1.23 12.10 12.31 168 -1.65 -1.57 13.65 14.10 192 -1.42 -1.20 14.97 15.68 216 -1.72 -1.80 15.61 16.01 240 -1.58 -1.87 16.50 16.88 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.64 6.27 6.63 48 -0.97 -0.83 8.01 8.36 72 -1.17 -1.47 10.25 10.54 96 -1.86 -1.62 13.07 13.17 120 -1.99 -1.75 15.25 15.28 144 -2.15 -1.91 17.30 17.96 168 -2.54 -2.27 19.77 20.96 192 -2.73 -2.07 21.69 22.87 216 -2.45 -2.39 23.61 24.38 240 -2.11 -2.50 25.46 26.35