VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 21.1 21.3 48 0.1 0.0 2.0 2.1 1.0 1.0 29.6 29.9 72 0.2 0.2 2.9 3.0 1.0 1.0 37.2 37.4 96 0.1 0.2 4.0 4.0 0.9 0.9 44.7 44.5 120 0.2 0.1 5.1 4.9 0.9 0.9 51.9 50.8 144 0.2 0.2 6.0 6.0 0.9 0.9 57.2 57.5 168 0.2 0.2 7.1 7.2 0.8 0.8 62.6 62.6 192 0.1 0.1 8.2 8.5 0.8 0.8 67.5 67.8 216 0.3 0.2 9.2 9.6 0.8 0.7 71.5 72.4 240 0.3 0.1 10.1 10.4 0.7 0.7 74.7 74.9 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 -0.3 9.3 9.5 1.0 1.0 12.9 13.1 48 -0.2 -0.8 17.5 17.6 1.0 1.0 20.1 20.2 72 0.2 0.0 27.3 27.6 1.0 1.0 26.9 27.1 96 0.0 0.0 39.0 38.6 0.9 1.0 33.6 33.4 120 -0.1 -0.5 51.3 49.9 0.9 0.9 39.6 39.0 144 0.0 -0.5 62.7 62.6 0.9 0.9 44.4 44.6 168 -0.6 -0.4 76.0 76.2 0.9 0.9 49.3 49.5 192 -1.1 -1.2 89.0 91.5 0.8 0.8 53.7 54.4 216 -0.9 -1.9 101.4 103.7 0.8 0.8 57.3 58.3 240 -1.4 -2.7 111.0 114.3 0.8 0.8 60.2 61.0 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.4 2.9 12.2 12.2 1.0 1.0 10.0 10.1 48 5.8 5.2 22.7 22.6 1.0 1.0 15.2 15.3 72 7.8 7.6 34.6 35.0 1.0 1.0 20.5 20.7 96 8.2 8.3 49.0 48.2 1.0 1.0 26.0 25.8 120 8.1 7.7 64.6 62.9 0.9 0.9 31.2 30.7 144 8.1 7.7 79.9 79.5 0.9 0.9 35.7 35.7 168 7.7 7.5 97.4 96.2 0.9 0.9 40.3 40.0 192 7.1 6.5 114.2 116.1 0.9 0.9 44.2 44.8 216 6.1 4.8 131.2 133.2 0.8 0.8 47.9 48.5 240 5.9 4.1 143.8 146.3 0.8 0.8 50.6 51.1 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.1 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.5 2.5 0.9 0.9 144 0.2 0.2 2.9 2.9 0.9 0.9 168 0.2 0.1 3.3 3.3 0.8 0.8 192 0.2 0.1 3.7 3.8 0.8 0.8 216 0.2 0.1 4.2 4.2 0.8 0.8 240 0.2 0.2 4.5 4.6 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 0.1 0.0 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.2 0.9 0.9 120 -0.1 -0.1 2.7 2.6 0.8 0.8 144 -0.1 -0.1 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.8 168 -0.1 -0.1 3.2 3.2 0.8 0.8 192 -0.2 -0.2 3.5 3.6 0.8 0.8 216 -0.3 -0.3 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.7 240 -0.4 -0.4 3.9 4.0 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.6 3.7 48 -0.2 -0.2 5.5 5.5 72 -0.3 -0.3 7.2 7.3 96 -0.3 -0.3 8.9 8.9 120 -0.4 -0.4 10.5 10.3 144 -0.5 -0.4 11.7 11.9 168 -0.5 -0.5 13.1 13.2 192 -0.5 -0.6 14.4 14.6 216 -0.7 -0.6 15.5 15.7 240 -0.7 -0.6 16.4 16.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.2 4.4 4.4 48 -0.5 -0.4 6.6 6.6 72 -0.6 -0.5 8.8 8.9 96 -0.8 -0.7 11.0 10.9 120 -0.9 -0.8 13.2 13.0 144 -0.9 -0.8 15.2 15.3 168 -0.9 -0.9 17.3 17.2 192 -1.0 -0.9 19.3 19.4 216 -1.0 -1.0 21.1 21.1 240 -1.0 -0.9 22.5 22.4 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.1 -1.3 4.0 4.0 0.9 0.9 32.7 33.0 48 -2.1 -2.2 6.2 6.1 0.9 0.9 40.7 41.3 72 -3.1 -3.3 8.1 8.1 0.9 0.9 45.1 45.6 96 -3.8 -4.0 9.3 9.3 0.8 0.8 48.8 49.1 120 -4.5 -4.7 10.2 10.3 0.8 0.8 51.6 52.1 144 -4.8 -5.3 11.1 11.5 0.8 0.8 53.7 54.3 168 -4.8 -5.6 12.0 12.5 0.8 0.8 56.0 56.2 192 -5.1 -5.7 13.0 13.3 0.8 0.8 57.6 58.5 216 -5.7 -6.1 14.2 14.3 0.7 0.7 61.9 62.6 240 -5.9 -6.4 14.9 15.0 0.7 0.7 63.9 64.4 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.9 2.9 6.6 6.7 0.9 0.9 29.4 29.9 48 4.1 4.5 10.3 10.7 0.9 0.9 36.9 37.3 72 4.6 4.9 12.4 12.9 0.9 0.9 41.2 41.9 96 5.3 5.7 14.1 14.5 0.9 0.9 44.6 45.2 120 5.7 6.3 16.0 16.4 0.9 0.9 47.8 48.3 144 6.1 6.7 18.3 18.9 0.9 0.8 51.0 51.9 168 6.9 7.2 20.6 21.2 0.8 0.8 53.6 54.3 192 7.5 8.3 23.1 23.6 0.8 0.8 56.2 56.9 216 7.0 7.9 25.1 25.1 0.8 0.8 59.3 59.6 240 6.6 8.1 27.3 27.2 0.7 0.7 61.9 61.2 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 48 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 96 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 120 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.7 192 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 240 -0.1 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 72 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 96 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 120 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 144 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 168 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 192 0.6 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 216 0.5 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 240 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 -0.1 1.9 1.9 48 0.0 0.0 2.7 2.6 72 0.0 0.0 3.2 3.1 96 0.0 0.0 3.6 3.5 120 0.1 0.0 4.0 3.9 144 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.2 168 0.0 0.0 4.5 4.5 192 0.0 0.0 4.8 4.7 216 0.1 0.1 5.1 5.1 240 0.1 0.1 5.3 5.3 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 4.5 4.5 48 -0.4 -0.4 6.2 6.2 72 -0.5 -0.5 7.2 7.3 96 -0.5 -0.5 8.1 8.1 120 -0.6 -0.6 8.8 8.8 144 -0.6 -0.6 9.6 9.6 168 -0.6 -0.6 10.2 10.2 192 -0.6 -0.6 10.9 10.9 216 -0.5 -0.5 11.6 11.5 240 -0.5 -0.4 12.3 11.9 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 20.4 20.4 48 -0.1 -0.1 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 28.2 28.3 72 -0.1 -0.1 2.9 2.9 0.9 0.9 35.8 36.0 96 -0.1 -0.1 3.9 4.0 0.9 0.9 43.0 43.6 120 0.0 0.0 4.9 4.9 0.9 0.9 49.8 49.8 144 0.0 0.1 6.0 5.9 0.8 0.8 55.7 55.6 168 0.0 0.1 6.8 6.7 0.8 0.8 60.4 59.8 192 0.1 0.1 7.6 7.5 0.8 0.8 64.2 64.2 216 0.1 0.2 8.2 8.2 0.7 0.7 66.8 67.5 240 0.2 0.3 8.7 8.5 0.7 0.7 69.3 69.2 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.7 1.1 9.7 10.0 1.0 1.0 14.6 14.4 48 1.2 1.7 16.9 17.1 1.0 1.0 21.4 21.2 72 1.7 1.7 25.8 26.0 1.0 1.0 27.9 27.8 96 2.5 2.1 35.5 36.6 0.9 0.9 34.2 34.5 120 3.1 3.1 46.3 46.7 0.9 0.9 39.9 40.0 144 3.2 3.4 57.2 57.3 0.9 0.9 45.5 45.2 168 3.7 3.5 66.3 66.4 0.8 0.8 50.0 49.4 192 4.1 3.9 76.5 75.2 0.8 0.8 54.0 53.4 216 4.2 4.5 84.0 84.2 0.8 0.8 57.0 56.8 240 4.7 5.5 90.5 90.3 0.7 0.7 59.5 59.3 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.8 5.1 13.1 13.4 1.0 1.0 11.9 11.8 48 8.5 8.9 24.1 24.4 1.0 1.0 18.1 18.0 72 11.3 11.1 36.7 36.9 1.0 1.0 24.3 24.2 96 13.7 13.0 50.6 51.6 0.9 0.9 30.4 30.5 120 15.5 15.3 65.5 65.5 0.9 0.9 36.0 36.0 144 16.4 16.7 80.7 80.0 0.9 0.9 41.5 41.1 168 17.5 17.5 92.5 93.6 0.8 0.8 45.6 45.5 192 18.5 18.6 108.2 106.0 0.8 0.8 50.2 49.5 216 18.0 18.0 121.1 120.0 0.8 0.8 54.0 53.5 240 18.6 18.8 130.2 131.7 0.7 0.7 56.5 56.5 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 72 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 96 0.4 0.4 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 120 0.5 0.5 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.9 144 0.5 0.5 2.7 2.7 0.8 0.8 168 0.5 0.5 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.8 192 0.6 0.6 3.3 3.3 0.7 0.7 216 0.6 0.6 3.6 3.6 0.7 0.7 240 0.6 0.6 3.8 3.9 0.7 0.6 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 0.1 0.1 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.1 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.9 120 0.1 0.1 2.6 2.6 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.0 3.3 3.2 0.8 0.8 192 0.0 0.0 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 216 -0.2 -0.2 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.7 240 -0.2 -0.3 3.8 3.9 0.7 0.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.4 3.4 48 -0.1 -0.2 5.0 4.9 72 -0.2 -0.3 6.4 6.4 96 -0.3 -0.4 7.8 7.9 120 -0.4 -0.5 9.2 9.2 144 -0.5 -0.6 10.5 10.4 168 -0.6 -0.7 11.5 11.5 192 -0.6 -0.7 12.6 12.5 216 -0.7 -0.7 13.4 13.4 240 -0.7 -0.8 14.1 14.1 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 4.6 4.5 48 -0.4 -0.5 6.8 6.8 72 -0.6 -0.7 9.1 9.0 96 -0.8 -0.8 11.4 11.3 120 -0.9 -0.9 13.6 13.5 144 -1.0 -1.0 15.6 15.4 168 -1.1 -1.1 17.3 17.4 192 -1.1 -1.1 19.2 19.0 216 -1.1 -1.1 20.8 20.7 240 -1.2 -1.1 21.9 22.2 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.84 8.66 8.75 48 -0.52 -2.19 12.65 13.61 72 0.70 0.59 18.69 20.23 96 3.54 5.31 26.80 26.53 120 6.49 6.30 35.36 32.56 144 6.04 5.51 42.40 42.04 168 5.37 3.75 48.33 50.53 192 3.30 -0.49 56.13 58.08 216 1.93 -1.85 61.09 61.03 240 1.50 -1.54 62.36 67.61 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.29 -1.60 11.13 11.13 48 0.27 -3.08 18.27 18.92 72 1.73 -0.01 27.91 29.40 96 5.01 3.94 41.90 43.15 120 8.67 7.22 53.22 54.38 144 12.27 6.19 67.89 65.34 168 9.45 5.90 79.39 80.58 192 6.78 3.69 94.64 98.68 216 0.91 1.33 103.01 108.35 240 3.35 2.09 112.37 113.93 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 5.41 1.55 15.92 13.75 48 8.17 2.17 24.32 23.82 72 11.12 7.24 38.34 42.55 96 15.78 12.58 59.49 59.86 120 20.79 18.69 77.17 77.52 144 25.80 23.46 96.80 89.84 168 27.14 20.38 110.85 111.02 192 24.28 18.60 130.27 135.50 216 15.71 14.57 142.80 153.45 240 15.88 18.67 157.98 155.09 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.04 1.70 1.70 48 0.08 0.01 2.01 2.04 72 0.10 -0.09 2.39 2.43 96 0.06 -0.03 2.96 3.05 120 0.08 0.08 3.62 3.66 144 -0.02 -0.05 4.16 3.91 168 0.01 0.05 5.11 4.74 192 0.03 0.07 5.69 5.52 216 -0.32 -0.05 6.10 6.25 240 -0.38 -0.21 6.68 6.62 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.07 0.98 0.97 48 0.28 0.15 1.38 1.41 72 0.34 0.27 1.88 2.07 96 0.40 0.30 2.58 2.65 120 0.50 0.53 3.04 3.08 144 0.68 0.55 3.62 3.41 168 0.64 0.60 4.05 3.68 192 0.72 0.59 4.44 4.48 216 0.60 0.56 4.82 5.05 240 0.44 0.67 5.26 5.30 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.41 0.35 1.37 1.35 48 0.33 0.24 1.71 1.71 72 0.29 0.26 2.16 2.30 96 0.23 0.14 2.72 2.76 120 0.20 0.04 3.10 3.18 144 0.21 0.16 3.49 3.37 168 0.36 0.20 3.70 3.70 192 0.34 0.21 3.92 3.92 216 0.18 0.07 4.17 4.08 240 0.06 0.18 4.34 4.41 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.65 4.13 4.07 48 -0.71 -0.77 4.93 4.85 72 -0.80 -0.84 5.89 6.12 96 -1.07 -1.02 7.15 7.46 120 -1.14 -1.01 8.33 8.30 144 -0.76 -0.75 9.18 8.90 168 -0.57 -0.45 9.83 9.88 192 -0.73 -0.48 10.39 10.27 216 -0.75 -0.58 10.64 10.66 240 -0.81 -0.33 10.89 11.30 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.73 4.68 4.77 48 -0.87 -0.94 6.23 6.26 72 -1.18 -1.04 8.09 8.39 96 -1.36 -1.24 10.32 10.24 120 -1.36 -1.36 11.85 11.86 144 -1.54 -1.21 13.47 13.06 168 -1.25 -1.41 14.95 14.65 192 -1.20 -1.34 16.00 15.52 216 -1.26 -1.41 16.53 16.53 240 -1.50 -1.41 17.81 18.06 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -1.00 6.03 5.98 48 -0.95 -1.18 8.07 8.20 72 -1.43 -1.10 11.17 11.73 96 -1.71 -1.32 14.37 14.63 120 -1.95 -1.58 16.75 16.85 144 -2.18 -1.91 19.48 19.24 168 -1.31 -2.17 21.82 21.25 192 -1.09 -1.68 23.65 23.39 216 -1.24 -1.77 25.27 25.36 240 -1.54 -1.93 27.09 27.08 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 -2.30 8.17 8.62 48 -0.37 -3.03 12.55 12.87 72 1.79 -0.32 18.41 17.51 96 2.54 4.63 25.81 22.76 120 7.68 6.20 34.49 31.32 144 9.34 5.25 41.38 36.10 168 8.73 4.67 42.04 43.84 192 8.66 3.16 53.78 53.03 216 8.20 2.76 65.99 67.74 240 5.54 3.73 77.82 75.38 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.50 -2.18 10.81 10.77 48 -0.23 -3.95 16.53 16.89 72 1.82 -0.14 25.81 23.03 96 3.47 5.08 37.27 35.14 120 9.81 7.98 48.26 45.38 144 13.82 5.07 60.46 53.85 168 6.81 -1.57 68.84 69.04 192 2.54 -7.15 84.35 87.47 216 -0.78 -9.13 105.98 112.71 240 -3.40 -4.00 124.14 125.12 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.99 1.66 13.88 13.14 48 7.55 4.02 21.32 20.45 72 13.50 11.22 33.13 31.61 96 18.28 19.67 48.91 48.33 120 26.65 24.80 64.90 62.84 144 29.91 19.77 82.92 73.87 168 19.63 13.48 96.83 89.93 192 14.09 -2.40 113.99 114.06 216 4.00 -3.99 140.61 153.42 240 5.94 6.57 167.08 168.40 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.26 1.24 1.26 48 0.26 0.23 1.47 1.50 72 0.20 0.20 1.82 1.80 96 0.20 0.19 2.26 2.28 120 0.19 0.19 2.78 2.69 144 0.17 0.00 3.06 2.88 168 -0.07 -0.19 3.34 3.22 192 -0.36 -0.56 3.84 3.88 216 -0.75 -0.78 4.37 4.74 240 -0.80 -0.67 4.86 5.27 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.19 0.82 0.81 48 0.29 0.25 1.13 1.14 72 0.43 0.34 1.58 1.50 96 0.52 0.51 2.04 1.95 120 0.72 0.72 2.49 2.32 144 0.60 0.54 2.85 2.70 168 0.40 0.41 3.40 3.21 192 0.23 -0.05 3.86 3.84 216 -0.20 0.03 4.41 4.57 240 0.06 0.47 4.94 4.84 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.34 1.11 1.10 48 0.39 0.50 1.45 1.46 72 0.43 0.58 1.89 1.90 96 0.49 0.46 2.31 2.23 120 0.41 0.39 2.55 2.35 144 0.32 0.46 2.81 2.75 168 0.26 0.30 3.19 3.17 192 0.11 0.14 3.29 3.54 216 0.01 0.18 3.69 3.58 240 0.16 0.22 3.74 3.59 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.52 3.84 3.76 48 -0.32 -0.58 4.67 4.62 72 -0.44 -0.47 5.57 5.37 96 -0.34 -0.47 6.79 6.12 120 -0.10 -0.44 7.76 7.07 144 -0.36 -0.46 8.21 7.60 168 -0.29 -0.50 8.87 9.05 192 -0.54 -0.34 10.11 9.95 216 -0.86 -0.44 10.86 10.73 240 -0.48 -0.39 12.00 11.63 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.39 4.45 4.23 48 -0.43 -0.46 5.99 5.73 72 -0.38 -0.31 7.80 7.39 96 -0.04 -0.05 9.42 8.79 120 0.10 0.23 11.08 10.79 144 -0.06 0.05 11.96 11.91 168 0.07 0.06 13.84 14.14 192 -0.04 0.19 15.72 16.08 216 -0.31 0.11 17.50 17.75 240 -0.04 -0.02 19.34 18.98 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.36 5.14 4.84 48 -0.34 -0.47 6.63 6.44 72 -0.18 -0.40 8.72 8.77 96 0.18 -0.03 11.22 11.29 120 0.07 0.15 13.72 14.08 144 0.10 -0.16 15.90 16.06 168 0.12 -0.33 19.33 19.11 192 0.02 -0.60 20.76 22.14 216 -0.06 0.23 24.09 25.07 240 0.11 -0.75 26.69 26.30 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.58 -1.61 10.01 9.50 48 1.39 0.75 11.66 11.16 72 3.41 3.51 14.68 14.83 96 3.25 3.39 18.48 19.43 120 0.05 -1.03 22.42 23.53 144 -2.33 -2.77 26.55 29.05 168 -3.39 -3.09 33.37 36.29 192 -3.90 -3.19 39.84 42.51 216 -1.89 -3.62 43.43 47.45 240 -3.11 -5.81 49.65 51.07 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.13 -3.46 14.20 14.28 48 -1.89 -3.12 17.28 17.99 72 -0.75 -0.70 21.89 23.52 96 -0.78 -1.21 28.81 29.59 120 -4.52 -4.50 36.39 37.99 144 -7.78 -7.98 42.77 45.99 168 -8.39 -9.29 51.87 57.84 192 -9.76 -9.08 61.76 65.28 216 -7.81 -9.73 67.83 72.01 240 -6.21 -10.89 75.25 78.10 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.04 -6.47 20.21 20.80 48 -5.10 -6.38 23.81 25.67 72 -3.23 -3.74 29.81 31.26 96 -3.32 -4.65 39.59 40.62 120 -8.91 -9.30 49.53 51.44 144 -13.34 -11.88 58.53 60.44 168 -15.59 -15.08 71.29 75.44 192 -17.13 -17.19 86.67 85.50 216 -15.83 -17.28 94.06 94.74 240 -12.59 -16.17 100.75 103.50 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.16 1.70 1.71 48 0.35 0.20 1.94 1.94 72 0.31 0.23 2.12 2.20 96 0.35 0.19 2.40 2.40 120 0.37 0.16 2.69 2.68 144 0.37 0.20 2.93 3.05 168 0.46 0.17 3.30 3.36 192 0.43 0.27 3.64 3.94 216 0.26 0.09 4.04 4.27 240 0.38 0.27 4.26 4.50 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.16 1.09 1.10 48 -0.16 -0.24 1.31 1.37 72 -0.15 -0.19 1.60 1.60 96 -0.19 -0.20 1.86 1.89 120 -0.26 -0.25 2.24 2.24 144 -0.36 -0.35 2.55 2.58 168 -0.42 -0.47 2.82 3.02 192 -0.45 -0.58 3.30 3.39 216 -0.47 -0.54 3.58 3.70 240 -0.32 -0.46 3.76 3.99 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.06 1.35 1.33 48 -0.17 -0.14 1.62 1.64 72 -0.21 -0.18 1.95 1.98 96 -0.28 -0.25 2.23 2.29 120 -0.34 -0.22 2.56 2.53 144 -0.44 -0.28 2.76 2.70 168 -0.56 -0.31 3.01 3.02 192 -0.55 -0.43 3.22 3.36 216 -0.85 -0.73 3.51 3.62 240 -0.90 -0.78 3.62 3.73 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.67 3.56 3.51 48 -0.83 -0.80 3.97 3.91 72 -0.97 -0.89 4.50 4.42 96 -1.04 -0.95 5.02 4.94 120 -1.17 -1.11 5.57 5.50 144 -1.30 -1.23 5.97 6.24 168 -1.16 -1.15 6.75 6.82 192 -0.98 -0.90 7.32 7.60 216 -0.88 -0.86 7.80 7.82 240 -0.93 -0.99 8.21 8.09 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.51 4.78 4.90 48 -0.81 -0.70 5.93 5.98 72 -0.88 -0.79 7.02 7.08 96 -0.97 -0.95 8.04 8.22 120 -1.08 -1.02 9.31 9.27 144 -1.13 -0.94 10.03 10.71 168 -1.13 -1.04 11.27 11.84 192 -0.98 -0.89 12.27 12.87 216 -1.26 -1.18 13.18 13.60 240 -1.30 -1.25 13.85 14.42 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.04 -0.89 5.30 5.28 48 -1.48 -1.23 6.27 6.40 72 -1.73 -1.60 7.70 7.83 96 -1.93 -1.83 9.46 9.41 120 -2.25 -1.87 10.65 10.44 144 -2.19 -1.90 11.64 11.62 168 -2.37 -1.82 13.31 13.77 192 -2.32 -1.83 15.02 15.21 216 -2.38 -2.06 16.26 16.11 240 -1.99 -1.69 17.13 17.25 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.54 -3.62 9.27 8.75 48 -3.20 -1.24 11.54 10.51 72 -4.01 -2.76 15.70 16.16 96 -6.95 -7.52 21.16 24.05 120 -10.51 -9.97 28.05 29.72 144 -12.40 -8.17 33.17 34.72 168 -12.96 -10.21 37.08 42.95 192 -11.89 -9.25 39.14 46.59 216 -11.49 -7.30 39.54 47.86 240 -10.31 -5.91 42.49 51.53 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.94 -7.58 10.45 12.49 48 -3.71 -5.05 13.02 14.11 72 -3.15 -5.13 16.10 18.67 96 -4.89 -8.96 22.68 28.40 120 -7.06 -10.33 29.88 35.45 144 -7.90 -6.57 35.98 43.38 168 -8.14 -8.00 42.29 52.45 192 -6.01 -4.38 48.09 62.57 216 -4.88 -4.16 50.60 66.69 240 -3.51 -2.49 56.18 69.78 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -4.40 12.13 14.68 48 4.81 1.34 18.41 21.18 72 7.90 3.62 24.92 29.10 96 7.95 3.27 33.62 39.54 120 8.58 4.41 43.27 49.65 144 11.12 7.03 54.77 65.77 168 12.54 12.25 66.35 82.84 192 13.75 16.63 77.20 100.26 216 14.07 12.24 87.23 106.39 240 16.78 14.83 94.74 117.35 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.09 1.30 1.28 48 0.17 0.10 1.53 1.55 72 0.21 0.16 1.73 1.70 96 0.25 0.14 1.89 2.01 120 0.30 0.28 2.30 2.31 144 0.30 0.41 2.60 2.98 168 0.23 0.37 2.85 3.22 192 0.33 0.43 3.34 3.72 216 0.50 0.52 3.61 3.78 240 0.61 0.64 3.66 3.95 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 -0.08 0.90 0.94 48 0.12 -0.01 1.05 1.11 72 0.26 0.11 1.32 1.31 96 0.36 0.23 1.51 1.65 120 0.45 0.37 1.70 1.88 144 0.61 0.49 1.98 2.15 168 0.65 0.63 2.28 2.70 192 0.68 0.83 2.42 2.80 216 0.76 0.59 2.66 2.98 240 0.76 0.67 2.86 3.20 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.49 0.56 1.08 1.23 48 0.55 0.75 1.27 1.43 72 0.60 0.81 1.52 1.86 96 0.63 1.00 1.71 2.26 120 0.78 1.00 2.01 2.49 144 0.92 1.03 2.27 2.81 168 1.03 1.21 2.66 3.12 192 1.12 1.16 2.92 3.27 216 0.95 1.04 3.03 3.51 240 0.91 0.96 3.06 3.99 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.17 4.40 4.13 48 -0.43 0.06 5.32 5.31 72 -0.47 0.04 6.15 6.04 96 -0.23 0.17 7.26 7.05 120 -0.27 0.11 8.29 8.27 144 -0.52 -0.08 8.91 8.94 168 -0.47 0.12 9.63 9.88 192 -0.93 -0.34 10.00 10.37 216 -0.88 -0.21 10.13 10.88 240 -0.72 -0.64 10.30 10.47 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.18 4.49 5.06 48 -0.48 -0.17 5.51 5.70 72 -0.48 -0.10 6.62 6.86 96 -0.50 -0.33 7.73 8.13 120 -0.75 -0.74 8.79 9.48 144 -0.83 -0.59 9.97 10.26 168 -0.72 -0.86 10.99 11.22 192 -1.22 -1.05 11.61 11.97 216 -1.65 -1.22 11.70 12.75 240 -1.56 -1.31 12.35 13.61 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.80 5.90 6.22 48 -0.96 -0.92 7.42 7.83 72 -1.43 -0.92 8.81 9.18 96 -1.68 -1.15 10.33 10.73 120 -1.82 -0.81 11.92 12.45 144 -1.68 -1.11 14.42 14.72 168 -1.48 -1.31 16.81 17.63 192 -2.19 -1.86 17.93 17.99 216 -2.98 -3.06 19.13 20.23 240 -3.42 -2.73 19.85 21.83 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.87 -4.94 10.51 10.65 48 -3.13 -4.08 10.78 10.83 72 -2.95 -3.30 11.89 11.24 96 -3.61 -3.78 13.87 12.23 120 -5.00 -5.14 14.93 13.30 144 -5.50 -6.16 15.76 14.36 168 -5.84 -7.79 16.35 16.10 192 -6.24 -8.45 16.91 17.22 216 -7.72 -9.85 18.61 18.15 240 -7.56 -9.89 18.96 18.67 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.52 -5.71 13.89 13.50 48 -3.71 -4.86 14.52 14.20 72 -3.53 -4.35 15.70 15.24 96 -3.59 -4.40 16.93 15.86 120 -4.73 -5.12 17.70 16.11 144 -5.14 -6.16 18.37 17.38 168 -5.33 -7.58 19.07 19.02 192 -5.54 -7.69 20.16 19.67 216 -6.06 -8.38 20.69 20.04 240 -5.97 -8.49 21.20 20.39 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.44 -0.81 15.43 14.12 48 1.71 2.04 16.24 15.49 72 3.01 4.03 17.66 17.26 96 3.70 4.87 18.84 18.22 120 2.61 4.43 19.37 19.18 144 2.72 3.92 21.13 20.63 168 2.96 3.25 23.01 22.08 192 3.03 4.31 25.10 23.69 216 3.04 3.01 25.01 25.09 240 2.13 3.04 26.01 26.13 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.06 1.06 1.01 48 0.17 0.08 1.13 1.07 72 0.16 0.08 1.19 1.10 96 0.18 0.12 1.22 1.15 120 0.20 0.11 1.30 1.20 144 0.19 0.10 1.33 1.23 168 0.18 0.10 1.37 1.29 192 0.18 0.10 1.46 1.35 216 0.18 0.03 1.44 1.41 240 0.15 0.00 1.55 1.48 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.09 0.91 0.89 48 0.02 -0.02 0.95 0.92 72 0.06 0.05 0.98 0.98 96 0.11 0.09 1.04 1.02 120 0.12 0.11 1.08 1.07 144 0.14 0.11 1.11 1.08 168 0.14 0.13 1.16 1.14 192 0.15 0.15 1.23 1.17 216 0.26 0.24 1.22 1.26 240 0.30 0.27 1.29 1.34 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.58 0.62 1.02 1.01 48 0.71 0.75 1.14 1.15 72 0.78 0.82 1.23 1.22 96 0.82 0.89 1.31 1.33 120 0.88 0.94 1.39 1.41 144 0.87 0.96 1.42 1.44 168 0.88 1.02 1.46 1.51 192 0.92 1.11 1.50 1.61 216 0.72 0.90 1.47 1.56 240 0.66 0.85 1.49 1.59 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.41 4.12 3.78 48 -0.37 -0.41 4.46 4.18 72 -0.34 -0.42 4.82 4.39 96 -0.22 -0.37 5.30 4.70 120 -0.25 -0.37 5.66 5.04 144 -0.30 -0.34 5.87 5.27 168 -0.20 -0.28 6.12 5.51 192 -0.16 -0.20 6.26 5.70 216 -0.04 -0.29 6.34 6.00 240 0.07 -0.30 6.77 6.16 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.06 -1.07 4.64 4.66 48 -0.98 -0.96 5.14 4.96 72 -0.83 -0.87 5.53 5.35 96 -0.77 -0.88 5.98 5.89 120 -0.77 -0.85 6.58 6.43 144 -0.66 -0.81 6.78 6.73 168 -0.48 -0.83 7.21 7.09 192 -0.66 -0.82 7.40 7.29 216 -0.75 -0.87 7.60 7.48 240 -0.71 -0.75 7.95 7.78 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.73 6.30 6.37 48 -1.07 -1.25 7.10 7.07 72 -1.11 -1.21 7.65 7.91 96 -1.11 -1.18 8.12 8.51 120 -0.95 -1.12 8.70 8.94 144 -1.12 -1.06 9.46 9.73 168 -1.03 -0.90 10.00 10.06 192 -1.09 -0.82 10.46 10.60 216 -0.98 -0.79 10.85 10.79 240 -1.10 -0.48 10.98 11.30 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -1.05 10.15 9.59 48 -0.20 -1.00 14.63 14.24 72 0.84 0.92 21.02 20.92 96 1.91 3.25 28.67 28.34 120 3.06 3.37 37.46 34.43 144 4.64 3.59 44.88 43.31 168 4.22 2.60 50.56 51.59 192 2.82 0.15 60.12 62.81 216 2.02 -1.22 68.55 71.76 240 0.38 -0.23 75.02 77.71 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -1.63 13.47 12.85 48 -0.49 -2.09 20.26 19.71 72 0.81 -0.16 30.17 29.47 96 2.28 2.32 42.79 42.72 120 3.83 3.55 55.08 53.65 144 4.71 2.60 69.01 65.29 168 2.65 0.76 82.59 82.51 192 1.36 -2.35 95.08 99.12 216 -0.01 -4.44 106.98 114.20 240 -0.25 -2.65 120.31 123.62 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.79 0.00 16.62 15.94 48 4.51 1.75 24.87 24.22 72 7.74 5.84 37.91 38.16 96 10.95 9.91 55.17 54.09 120 12.23 12.38 70.62 69.98 144 14.01 11.52 89.46 83.75 168 11.69 8.83 105.19 103.47 192 10.07 4.41 123.89 126.64 216 5.85 2.21 142.65 149.84 240 4.73 5.92 159.10 162.56 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.16 1.55 1.55 48 0.16 0.14 1.85 1.85 72 0.17 0.12 2.21 2.23 96 0.19 0.14 2.78 2.78 120 0.14 0.17 3.33 3.32 144 0.12 0.08 3.81 3.71 168 -0.02 -0.03 4.47 4.37 192 -0.03 -0.06 5.05 5.01 216 -0.26 -0.21 5.53 5.75 240 -0.35 -0.24 6.05 6.18 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.06 0.99 0.97 48 0.17 0.09 1.36 1.32 72 0.25 0.16 1.85 1.86 96 0.31 0.24 2.32 2.37 120 0.35 0.36 2.79 2.75 144 0.37 0.31 3.27 3.14 168 0.30 0.26 3.75 3.60 192 0.29 0.19 4.21 4.21 216 0.19 0.13 4.62 4.79 240 0.19 0.28 5.02 5.20 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.21 1.27 1.24 48 0.23 0.21 1.64 1.63 72 0.19 0.22 2.07 2.10 96 0.13 0.13 2.49 2.52 120 0.12 0.01 2.89 2.86 144 0.11 0.03 3.27 3.18 168 0.06 0.03 3.55 3.57 192 -0.07 -0.09 3.75 3.85 216 -0.18 -0.14 3.99 4.02 240 -0.25 -0.20 4.16 4.25 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.58 4.10 3.99 48 -0.68 -0.72 4.83 4.77 72 -0.76 -0.70 5.78 5.82 96 -0.85 -0.83 6.91 6.89 120 -0.87 -0.83 7.99 7.67 144 -0.86 -0.79 8.65 8.45 168 -0.84 -0.67 9.32 9.57 192 -0.93 -0.55 10.21 10.18 216 -0.98 -0.71 10.93 10.84 240 -0.97 -0.63 11.48 11.45 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.62 4.68 4.69 48 -0.60 -0.73 6.26 6.20 72 -0.67 -0.67 8.03 7.99 96 -0.64 -0.71 10.01 9.74 120 -0.73 -0.74 11.54 11.22 144 -0.73 -0.73 12.82 12.74 168 -0.69 -0.76 14.27 14.54 192 -0.68 -0.65 15.67 16.00 216 -0.96 -0.86 16.73 17.18 240 -0.88 -0.88 17.95 18.47 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.58 5.43 5.29 48 -0.58 -0.68 7.20 7.02 72 -0.79 -0.73 9.48 9.71 96 -0.84 -0.88 11.97 12.03 120 -1.01 -0.95 14.25 14.00 144 -0.95 -0.98 16.68 16.27 168 -0.66 -1.11 18.94 18.59 192 -0.65 -0.69 20.90 21.19 216 -0.82 -0.71 22.81 23.33 240 -0.40 -0.85 24.52 24.71 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.68 -3.90 10.51 10.40 48 -4.55 -4.92 13.68 13.75 72 -5.56 -6.20 18.35 17.85 96 -7.14 -8.41 23.25 24.38 120 -9.83 -8.54 30.05 28.38 144 -11.79 -8.92 34.77 33.84 168 -11.94 -11.62 38.78 41.03 192 -11.78 -12.45 42.31 46.41 216 -11.57 -13.32 44.28 48.36 240 -12.44 -12.33 47.07 50.67 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.72 -4.77 12.27 13.06 48 -4.09 -4.93 15.52 16.85 72 -4.09 -5.59 20.90 21.86 96 -4.41 -6.78 26.42 28.97 120 -5.73 -5.81 34.62 35.78 144 -6.73 -6.21 40.64 43.66 168 -6.49 -7.44 46.08 50.06 192 -5.44 -9.00 52.56 57.04 216 -5.61 -10.44 56.04 63.26 240 -5.32 -11.00 62.32 67.20 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.88 -0.38 14.68 15.60 48 2.63 2.93 20.86 21.57 72 5.06 4.96 30.01 30.07 96 7.14 6.66 39.34 40.08 120 9.03 9.36 50.56 50.95 144 10.11 10.52 61.27 62.81 168 13.01 10.90 70.62 71.51 192 16.84 12.45 83.02 84.81 216 14.81 6.24 91.91 94.10 240 15.06 5.01 100.38 102.27 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.03 1.41 1.48 48 0.08 -0.05 1.61 1.68 72 0.09 -0.04 1.81 1.85 96 0.09 -0.02 2.01 2.08 120 0.13 -0.02 2.46 2.29 144 0.06 -0.01 2.75 2.74 168 0.04 -0.07 2.97 2.92 192 0.11 -0.10 3.37 3.18 216 0.01 -0.22 3.64 3.44 240 -0.01 -0.22 3.81 3.53 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.96 0.97 48 0.09 0.12 1.18 1.20 72 0.20 0.24 1.46 1.48 96 0.32 0.34 1.70 1.77 120 0.43 0.47 1.92 2.05 144 0.55 0.50 2.27 2.38 168 0.62 0.56 2.53 2.59 192 0.68 0.59 2.64 2.82 216 0.72 0.48 2.87 3.09 240 0.67 0.49 3.07 3.26 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.38 0.41 1.14 1.23 48 0.42 0.45 1.39 1.51 72 0.43 0.49 1.73 1.90 96 0.44 0.56 1.95 2.27 120 0.56 0.54 2.26 2.55 144 0.66 0.62 2.51 2.90 168 0.79 0.77 2.97 3.07 192 0.87 0.78 3.14 3.29 216 0.72 0.61 3.21 3.51 240 0.76 0.39 3.36 3.73 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.48 4.39 4.21 48 -0.65 -0.43 5.15 4.95 72 -0.70 -0.47 5.93 5.47 96 -0.61 -0.42 6.70 6.49 120 -0.57 -0.36 7.71 7.09 144 -0.74 -0.62 8.26 7.77 168 -0.76 -0.39 8.98 8.45 192 -0.94 -0.57 9.37 8.97 216 -1.13 -0.75 9.75 9.61 240 -1.02 -0.84 9.99 9.73 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.46 4.58 4.54 48 -0.62 -0.47 5.39 5.64 72 -0.62 -0.59 6.48 6.57 96 -0.75 -0.76 7.48 7.70 120 -0.93 -0.80 8.59 8.81 144 -1.12 -1.04 9.68 9.57 168 -1.02 -0.94 10.59 10.57 192 -1.32 -1.09 11.38 11.27 216 -1.67 -1.23 11.54 11.87 240 -1.65 -1.25 12.11 12.25 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.57 5.85 5.78 48 -0.84 -0.88 7.43 7.28 72 -1.31 -0.94 9.08 8.90 96 -1.59 -1.07 10.78 10.74 120 -1.70 -0.85 12.42 12.66 144 -1.94 -1.40 14.53 14.15 168 -1.67 -1.35 16.57 16.12 192 -1.85 -1.42 17.68 17.41 216 -2.54 -2.01 18.96 18.91 240 -2.92 -1.94 19.67 20.19