VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 20.5 20.5 48 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8 1.0 1.0 28.8 28.9 72 0.0 0.0 2.7 2.7 1.0 1.0 36.9 37.1 96 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.8 0.9 0.9 45.4 46.0 120 0.0 0.0 5.1 5.0 0.9 0.9 54.3 54.5 144 0.1 0.0 6.3 6.2 0.9 0.9 61.9 62.1 168 0.1 0.1 7.5 7.4 0.8 0.8 68.6 68.5 192 0.1 0.1 8.5 8.5 0.7 0.7 73.3 74.0 216 0.3 0.1 9.3 9.5 0.7 0.7 77.2 79.5 240 0.4 0.2 10.0 10.5 0.7 0.6 80.8 83.7 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.2 8.3 8.6 1.0 1.0 13.1 13.3 48 -0.2 -0.4 15.6 15.6 1.0 1.0 20.1 20.1 72 0.1 -0.2 24.9 24.9 1.0 1.0 27.2 27.1 96 -0.1 0.1 36.5 36.3 1.0 1.0 34.4 34.5 120 -0.1 -0.2 49.3 48.3 0.9 0.9 41.3 41.1 144 -0.3 -0.2 63.2 61.7 0.9 0.9 48.1 47.5 168 -0.7 -0.6 77.6 76.1 0.8 0.8 54.2 53.3 192 -1.0 -1.5 89.9 88.9 0.8 0.8 58.6 58.0 216 -0.9 -2.0 97.6 100.6 0.7 0.7 61.6 62.6 240 -0.8 -1.9 106.2 111.1 0.7 0.7 64.6 65.8 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.3 4.2 11.7 11.8 1.0 1.0 10.3 10.3 48 7.7 7.4 21.8 21.5 1.0 1.0 15.8 15.6 72 9.8 9.6 34.6 34.3 1.0 1.0 21.8 21.8 96 10.3 10.5 50.5 50.6 1.0 1.0 28.3 28.3 120 10.0 10.3 68.5 67.1 0.9 0.9 34.7 34.4 144 9.0 9.3 87.0 85.2 0.9 0.9 40.8 40.4 168 7.7 7.8 106.8 105.0 0.8 0.8 46.6 45.8 192 6.4 5.7 125.3 125.0 0.8 0.8 51.2 50.6 216 4.0 2.7 137.3 142.1 0.8 0.7 54.0 54.9 240 2.9 1.5 150.4 157.3 0.7 0.7 56.9 58.1 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.0 96 0.3 0.3 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 120 0.3 0.3 2.6 2.5 0.9 0.9 144 0.2 0.2 3.1 3.0 0.8 0.9 168 0.2 0.2 3.6 3.5 0.8 0.8 192 0.2 0.2 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 216 0.1 0.1 4.4 4.5 0.7 0.7 240 0.1 0.1 4.7 4.8 0.7 0.6 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 72 0.1 0.1 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.0 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 120 -0.1 -0.1 2.5 2.5 0.8 0.8 144 -0.2 -0.2 2.8 2.8 0.8 0.8 168 -0.3 -0.3 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.8 192 -0.4 -0.4 3.4 3.3 0.7 0.7 216 -0.6 -0.6 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 240 -0.8 -0.8 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.3 3.3 48 -0.1 -0.1 5.0 5.0 72 -0.3 -0.2 6.6 6.5 96 -0.3 -0.3 8.2 8.2 120 -0.4 -0.4 10.0 9.9 144 -0.5 -0.5 11.7 11.5 168 -0.6 -0.6 13.3 13.0 192 -0.6 -0.6 14.5 14.4 216 -0.7 -0.7 15.4 15.7 240 -0.8 -0.7 16.3 16.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.2 4.3 4.4 48 -0.5 -0.5 6.5 6.5 72 -0.7 -0.6 8.8 8.7 96 -0.9 -0.8 11.4 11.5 120 -1.0 -1.0 14.3 14.0 144 -1.1 -1.2 16.7 16.7 168 -1.2 -1.3 19.3 19.0 192 -1.4 -1.4 21.3 21.3 216 -1.5 -1.4 22.6 23.2 240 -1.5 -1.4 24.2 24.8 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.0 -1.2 3.9 4.0 0.9 0.9 33.2 33.9 48 -1.6 -1.9 5.6 6.0 0.9 0.9 40.7 41.8 72 -2.4 -2.7 7.0 7.5 0.9 0.9 44.7 46.0 96 -3.0 -3.2 8.4 8.6 0.9 0.9 47.8 49.3 120 -3.8 -4.0 9.8 9.8 0.8 0.8 50.6 51.7 144 -4.4 -4.8 11.1 11.1 0.8 0.8 53.2 54.1 168 -5.1 -5.4 12.0 11.9 0.8 0.8 55.4 56.3 192 -5.7 -5.9 12.9 12.7 0.8 0.8 57.9 58.8 216 -6.9 -7.0 14.1 14.1 0.7 0.7 63.0 63.7 240 -7.9 -8.3 15.1 15.6 0.6 0.6 64.9 66.2 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.5 2.7 6.4 6.5 0.9 0.9 31.2 31.1 48 3.2 3.6 9.8 10.0 0.9 0.9 39.1 39.0 72 2.8 3.2 11.8 12.2 0.9 0.9 43.9 43.8 96 1.9 2.5 13.4 13.7 0.9 0.9 47.7 47.6 120 0.9 1.8 15.1 15.3 0.9 0.9 51.2 51.0 144 0.0 1.1 17.0 17.0 0.9 0.9 54.6 54.6 168 -0.5 0.2 18.6 18.8 0.8 0.8 57.8 57.9 192 -1.2 -0.4 20.2 20.6 0.8 0.8 60.5 60.8 216 -3.6 -3.2 22.8 23.0 0.8 0.8 64.8 64.5 240 -5.3 -5.7 25.3 25.0 0.7 0.7 67.6 66.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 48 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 72 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 96 -0.1 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 120 -0.1 0.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 192 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 0.0 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.7 240 -0.1 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 96 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 120 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 144 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 168 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 192 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 216 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 240 -0.1 -0.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 1.9 1.9 48 -0.2 -0.2 2.5 2.5 72 -0.3 -0.3 3.0 2.9 96 -0.4 -0.4 3.3 3.3 120 -0.4 -0.4 3.6 3.6 144 -0.5 -0.5 3.9 3.8 168 -0.5 -0.5 4.2 4.1 192 -0.5 -0.6 4.4 4.4 216 -0.5 -0.5 4.8 4.7 240 -0.5 -0.5 5.0 4.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.3 4.2 4.3 48 -0.5 -0.5 5.9 5.8 72 -0.7 -0.6 6.8 6.8 96 -0.8 -0.8 7.5 7.5 120 -0.9 -0.8 8.3 8.3 144 -1.0 -1.0 9.0 9.0 168 -1.1 -1.1 9.6 9.7 192 -1.1 -1.1 10.3 10.3 216 -1.2 -1.2 11.0 11.0 240 -1.1 -1.2 11.8 11.7 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.0 19.8 19.9 48 -0.1 -0.1 2.2 2.3 1.0 1.0 27.0 27.5 72 -0.2 -0.1 3.0 3.2 1.0 0.9 33.4 34.4 96 -0.1 -0.1 4.1 4.1 0.9 0.9 40.3 41.1 120 -0.1 0.0 5.0 5.1 0.9 0.9 46.5 47.1 144 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.1 0.9 0.8 52.2 53.0 168 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.1 0.8 0.8 56.9 57.9 192 0.1 0.1 8.1 8.2 0.8 0.8 61.5 62.1 216 0.2 0.2 8.9 8.9 0.7 0.7 64.4 65.9 240 0.2 0.3 9.4 9.7 0.7 0.7 66.9 69.1 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.5 0.5 10.8 11.0 1.0 1.0 13.9 13.9 48 0.7 1.0 18.4 19.1 1.0 1.0 20.2 20.4 72 1.1 1.5 27.4 28.8 1.0 1.0 26.3 26.9 96 1.9 2.0 38.7 39.4 0.9 0.9 32.7 33.0 120 2.6 2.8 49.3 50.9 0.9 0.9 38.0 38.5 144 2.9 3.2 60.2 62.2 0.9 0.9 43.0 43.7 168 3.3 3.4 71.6 74.1 0.8 0.8 47.6 48.3 192 3.6 3.7 84.2 86.9 0.8 0.8 52.4 52.5 216 3.4 3.7 94.6 96.8 0.7 0.7 55.5 56.2 240 2.8 3.7 102.2 105.6 0.7 0.7 58.0 59.4 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.9 5.2 14.2 14.5 1.0 1.0 11.2 11.2 48 8.5 9.2 25.2 26.3 1.0 1.0 16.9 17.0 72 11.2 11.9 38.0 39.6 1.0 1.0 22.6 23.1 96 13.0 13.3 53.0 54.5 0.9 0.9 28.8 29.2 120 14.1 15.1 68.2 70.6 0.9 0.9 34.0 34.5 144 14.7 15.4 83.3 86.7 0.9 0.9 38.9 39.5 168 15.2 15.5 99.9 103.2 0.8 0.8 43.5 44.2 192 15.2 15.5 117.4 121.2 0.8 0.8 48.2 48.5 216 13.0 13.3 131.0 134.8 0.7 0.7 51.3 51.9 240 10.5 11.7 142.7 146.2 0.7 0.7 53.8 54.9 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 72 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.9 96 0.4 0.4 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 120 0.4 0.5 2.4 2.4 0.9 0.9 144 0.5 0.5 2.7 2.8 0.8 0.8 168 0.5 0.5 3.2 3.2 0.8 0.8 192 0.5 0.4 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 216 0.4 0.4 3.8 3.8 0.7 0.7 240 0.3 0.3 4.0 4.1 0.7 0.7 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 72 0.3 0.4 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 0.3 0.4 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 120 0.3 0.4 2.3 2.4 0.9 0.9 144 0.3 0.3 2.6 2.6 0.8 0.8 168 0.2 0.3 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.8 192 0.2 0.3 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 216 0.1 0.1 3.3 3.3 0.7 0.7 240 -0.1 0.0 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.6 3.6 48 -0.2 -0.2 5.2 5.3 72 -0.2 -0.3 6.8 6.9 96 -0.3 -0.4 8.3 8.4 120 -0.5 -0.5 9.7 9.9 144 -0.6 -0.6 11.1 11.2 168 -0.7 -0.7 12.4 12.5 192 -0.7 -0.8 13.8 13.8 216 -0.9 -1.0 14.6 14.8 240 -1.0 -1.0 15.3 15.6 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 4.8 4.8 48 -0.4 -0.3 7.1 7.1 72 -0.5 -0.5 9.4 9.6 96 -0.7 -0.7 11.9 12.1 120 -0.9 -0.9 14.2 14.4 144 -1.0 -1.1 16.3 16.7 168 -1.1 -1.2 18.4 18.8 192 -1.2 -1.3 20.8 20.9 216 -1.4 -1.4 22.2 22.5 240 -1.4 -1.5 23.5 23.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.36 -1.43 8.88 8.92 48 -1.89 -2.73 13.96 13.62 72 -3.07 -3.22 19.55 20.49 96 -2.84 -2.85 27.67 28.76 120 -4.08 -4.60 37.49 37.18 144 -5.63 -9.37 46.25 47.35 168 -10.30 -12.75 56.21 56.84 192 -13.89 -12.40 63.69 62.73 216 -15.24 -11.88 67.42 72.61 240 -15.45 -12.26 78.20 81.81 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -1.79 10.84 11.69 48 -0.54 -2.88 18.73 18.13 72 -1.11 -3.55 29.98 29.05 96 -1.37 -2.13 43.69 42.82 120 -2.20 -2.93 57.52 57.11 144 -4.99 -8.83 71.78 70.44 168 -10.48 -13.64 86.88 84.51 192 -14.15 -15.54 100.62 97.47 216 -18.16 -18.43 114.10 107.08 240 -21.23 -20.84 129.53 128.06 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 7.10 3.62 15.65 14.68 48 11.11 6.29 27.60 24.46 72 12.28 8.97 44.29 41.39 96 13.62 12.15 65.74 63.29 120 14.08 12.93 85.03 83.83 144 8.98 3.53 105.37 103.20 168 0.57 -3.91 126.29 120.22 192 -3.19 -7.63 142.76 136.51 216 -9.48 -11.97 158.13 154.55 240 -14.82 -15.83 180.74 178.14 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.04 1.50 1.55 48 0.06 0.01 1.80 1.79 72 0.06 -0.07 2.25 2.12 96 -0.06 -0.04 2.69 2.51 120 -0.12 -0.18 3.24 3.25 144 -0.17 -0.10 4.04 3.75 168 -0.18 -0.06 4.58 4.36 192 -0.09 -0.20 4.74 5.14 216 -0.25 -0.35 5.41 5.86 240 -0.63 -0.57 6.35 6.51 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.10 1.05 1.01 48 0.28 0.22 1.43 1.39 72 0.37 0.31 1.92 1.90 96 0.40 0.40 2.59 2.50 120 0.46 0.48 3.05 3.12 144 0.35 0.32 3.72 3.57 168 0.24 0.16 4.23 4.01 192 0.18 -0.04 4.80 4.65 216 0.03 -0.13 5.30 5.26 240 0.00 -0.17 6.02 6.00 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.60 0.50 1.28 1.26 48 0.71 0.62 1.74 1.65 72 0.81 0.74 2.22 2.15 96 0.80 0.76 2.55 2.45 120 0.77 0.68 2.86 2.83 144 0.70 0.56 3.09 3.02 168 0.57 0.53 3.27 3.17 192 0.54 0.48 3.57 3.35 216 0.36 0.45 3.57 3.52 240 0.22 0.27 3.73 3.64 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.63 3.96 4.14 48 -0.51 -0.64 4.77 4.93 72 -0.54 -0.87 5.81 5.92 96 -0.79 -0.93 7.08 6.99 120 -0.85 -1.18 8.53 8.33 144 -0.75 -1.55 9.94 9.66 168 -0.92 -1.29 10.53 11.04 192 -0.95 -1.33 10.90 11.57 216 -0.99 -1.59 11.49 12.63 240 -0.33 -1.34 13.81 13.22 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.55 4.73 4.72 48 -1.02 -0.59 6.25 6.00 72 -1.22 -0.66 8.10 7.59 96 -1.05 -0.55 9.67 9.81 120 -0.99 -0.72 12.28 12.06 144 -1.07 -0.87 14.15 13.89 168 -0.87 -0.77 15.55 14.84 192 -0.80 -0.89 17.11 16.43 216 -0.91 -0.26 18.14 18.21 240 -0.34 -0.07 20.51 19.77 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.77 5.69 5.59 48 -0.82 -0.77 7.71 7.40 72 -0.87 -0.61 10.49 10.17 96 -0.51 -0.80 13.14 14.01 120 -0.41 -0.74 17.45 17.13 144 -0.66 -0.84 20.22 20.26 168 -0.49 -0.65 22.61 21.67 192 -0.39 -0.78 25.14 24.08 216 -0.53 -0.13 26.56 26.93 240 -0.36 0.66 30.55 29.49 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.19 -1.72 8.91 9.21 48 -1.01 -1.98 13.42 13.47 72 -0.43 -1.10 19.47 19.10 96 1.72 -0.43 28.84 27.72 120 11.32 1.54 40.37 36.76 144 19.73 9.53 53.62 51.71 168 20.13 6.38 64.71 54.13 192 13.82 14.79 63.77 58.63 216 19.33 17.93 72.33 70.47 240 25.18 27.70 85.23 86.76 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -1.27 11.32 11.20 48 0.42 -1.18 17.52 16.55 72 2.37 1.22 25.97 24.25 96 4.62 3.18 35.47 35.70 120 10.71 7.21 53.25 49.28 144 19.67 11.08 72.43 60.33 168 22.94 17.04 83.15 74.10 192 20.57 23.87 87.81 84.86 216 21.95 26.03 101.30 103.35 240 29.49 33.73 120.40 126.25 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.57 4.72 15.10 15.52 48 11.21 8.02 25.28 25.40 72 17.49 15.64 39.63 35.65 96 19.49 19.49 53.78 51.36 120 24.44 25.01 80.96 78.89 144 37.43 29.37 105.87 89.48 168 43.74 39.67 127.52 112.16 192 44.96 48.30 136.67 130.09 216 41.20 46.46 154.31 158.18 240 47.97 39.23 167.67 179.30 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.18 1.17 1.21 48 0.18 0.19 1.41 1.42 72 0.22 0.18 1.66 1.61 96 0.19 0.22 2.10 2.02 120 -0.09 0.11 2.34 2.42 144 -0.13 -0.03 2.78 2.74 168 0.01 0.16 3.35 3.03 192 0.11 0.34 3.49 3.42 216 -0.26 0.34 3.82 3.63 240 -0.25 0.19 4.20 4.10 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.22 0.90 0.90 48 0.42 0.34 1.30 1.27 72 0.54 0.55 1.87 1.73 96 0.59 0.67 2.41 2.17 120 0.39 0.68 2.99 3.05 144 0.63 0.63 3.44 3.40 168 0.83 0.98 4.07 3.70 192 1.12 1.14 4.34 4.26 216 0.80 0.99 4.68 4.85 240 0.94 0.80 5.49 5.22 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.28 1.23 1.11 48 0.18 0.20 1.54 1.48 72 0.19 0.12 1.99 1.84 96 0.13 -0.01 2.41 2.35 120 0.03 0.03 2.83 2.75 144 0.12 -0.18 3.23 2.94 168 -0.13 -0.18 3.48 3.20 192 -0.31 -0.36 3.61 3.45 216 -0.30 -0.32 3.40 3.58 240 -0.51 -0.40 3.62 3.62 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.40 4.04 3.99 48 -0.42 -0.44 4.96 4.88 72 -0.66 -0.62 5.97 5.71 96 -0.61 -0.44 7.44 6.96 120 -1.06 -0.51 8.71 8.70 144 -0.98 -0.74 9.48 9.52 168 -0.96 -1.15 11.16 10.26 192 -0.62 -1.05 11.11 10.60 216 -1.87 -1.46 11.67 11.00 240 -1.48 -1.62 12.13 12.19 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.57 4.59 4.45 48 -0.50 -0.73 5.96 5.65 72 -0.71 -0.89 7.79 7.12 96 -0.85 -0.87 9.20 9.08 120 -1.12 -0.87 11.24 10.99 144 -0.83 -0.77 13.08 12.03 168 -0.98 -0.58 14.65 12.97 192 -1.04 -0.59 15.46 14.94 216 -1.12 -1.14 16.44 16.73 240 -0.83 -1.57 18.20 17.90 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.60 5.45 5.32 48 -0.70 -0.68 7.37 7.14 72 -0.83 -1.02 9.82 9.20 96 -1.31 -0.99 12.54 12.07 120 -0.86 -1.01 15.93 15.75 144 -0.71 -0.05 19.02 18.17 168 -0.62 -0.43 22.45 20.02 192 -0.65 -0.59 23.87 23.10 216 -0.88 -1.23 25.58 25.89 240 -1.01 -2.34 28.30 26.98 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.21 9.35 8.99 48 2.31 2.06 12.21 11.52 72 5.23 5.14 16.39 15.37 96 7.22 7.18 22.37 22.33 120 8.92 7.86 28.09 29.00 144 8.19 9.89 36.11 36.19 168 10.40 12.30 43.43 42.93 192 7.76 10.79 51.24 52.22 216 12.29 9.39 53.54 56.40 240 15.58 10.61 54.73 61.38 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.92 -1.78 12.97 12.79 48 -0.07 -0.10 17.05 16.07 72 2.86 2.49 22.89 22.48 96 5.18 5.10 31.29 31.21 120 5.85 6.91 39.31 40.75 144 7.35 9.74 51.19 50.95 168 9.73 13.29 59.89 62.74 192 9.94 13.67 75.05 73.14 216 13.61 13.27 76.93 81.16 240 17.92 14.10 80.24 89.19 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.09 1.50 18.59 17.19 48 4.32 5.91 23.49 22.87 72 9.64 10.91 32.81 32.46 96 12.68 15.54 46.05 47.13 120 14.08 17.78 58.21 60.82 144 14.55 21.71 73.58 74.48 168 17.58 26.33 87.59 89.90 192 19.21 27.13 104.99 104.01 216 23.30 25.71 108.90 116.10 240 28.67 27.81 113.50 128.13 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.21 1.51 1.58 48 -0.18 -0.29 1.79 1.85 72 -0.28 -0.39 2.01 2.10 96 -0.27 -0.47 2.36 2.46 120 -0.15 -0.38 2.75 2.87 144 0.08 -0.26 3.31 3.49 168 0.20 -0.25 3.96 4.12 192 0.15 -0.13 4.42 4.62 216 -0.01 -0.14 5.05 5.01 240 0.08 -0.08 5.24 5.44 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.06 0.99 1.00 48 0.16 0.14 1.23 1.22 72 0.28 0.23 1.58 1.56 96 0.30 0.31 2.01 2.04 120 0.34 0.34 2.51 2.55 144 0.36 0.52 3.01 3.07 168 0.48 0.59 3.43 3.55 192 0.52 0.68 3.89 3.92 216 0.57 0.70 4.00 4.29 240 0.70 0.72 4.15 4.45 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.25 1.25 1.23 48 0.10 0.19 1.56 1.48 72 0.07 0.20 1.85 1.86 96 0.00 0.15 2.21 2.17 120 -0.06 0.04 2.50 2.51 144 -0.16 -0.04 2.86 2.83 168 -0.25 -0.05 3.17 3.15 192 -0.36 -0.16 3.47 3.33 216 -0.66 -0.36 3.63 3.46 240 -0.66 -0.51 3.58 3.54 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.44 3.73 3.71 48 -0.50 -0.46 4.29 4.33 72 -0.67 -0.64 4.92 4.83 96 -0.91 -0.76 5.73 5.68 120 -1.06 -0.98 6.49 6.69 144 -1.09 -1.02 7.53 7.54 168 -0.97 -1.01 8.38 8.51 192 -0.73 -0.82 8.94 8.86 216 -0.89 -0.82 9.30 9.32 240 -1.03 -0.91 9.16 9.55 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.45 4.52 4.54 48 -0.56 -0.50 5.55 5.47 72 -0.65 -0.69 6.65 6.55 96 -0.85 -0.75 7.77 8.00 120 -1.01 -0.84 9.26 9.69 144 -1.03 -0.91 10.97 11.19 168 -0.92 -0.86 12.57 12.48 192 -1.01 -0.98 13.31 13.32 216 -1.41 -1.30 13.85 14.16 240 -1.79 -1.66 13.72 14.74 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.52 5.15 5.12 48 -1.09 -1.00 6.41 6.41 72 -1.38 -1.37 8.22 8.15 96 -1.85 -1.62 10.27 10.32 120 -2.11 -2.02 12.46 12.96 144 -2.20 -1.94 14.84 15.06 168 -2.20 -2.13 16.94 16.57 192 -2.33 -2.39 18.37 17.81 216 -3.04 -2.88 19.35 19.82 240 -3.61 -3.63 19.43 21.16 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.80 -2.42 6.84 7.28 48 -1.79 0.04 8.18 8.55 72 -1.61 0.72 10.24 12.60 96 -1.83 -2.15 14.02 17.33 120 -1.14 -3.15 19.38 23.54 144 -0.92 -1.16 23.21 28.48 168 -1.49 -2.62 24.92 35.06 192 -2.74 -4.23 29.32 35.08 216 -7.02 -3.60 32.98 40.23 240 -8.92 -7.52 33.81 48.07 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.88 -5.83 9.49 11.30 48 -3.98 -3.90 12.24 14.85 72 -3.65 -2.29 15.77 20.30 96 -3.31 -4.85 22.05 28.67 120 -1.46 -6.34 29.84 36.99 144 -0.63 -5.98 36.57 43.04 168 -1.07 -6.76 41.33 50.80 192 -2.70 -9.99 46.50 54.94 216 -2.85 -11.53 49.88 65.04 240 -6.27 -11.08 54.06 68.51 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.21 -1.40 12.36 15.00 48 5.08 3.28 19.30 21.72 72 6.44 6.09 26.47 30.75 96 7.35 3.91 36.08 40.53 120 9.68 3.21 46.18 51.15 144 10.28 2.77 60.13 61.07 168 7.39 -1.15 68.12 74.35 192 8.41 -5.36 74.42 82.29 216 8.57 -9.53 79.97 95.13 240 4.98 -7.51 85.47 96.07 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 0.03 1.17 1.30 48 -0.06 -0.06 1.37 1.54 72 -0.06 -0.08 1.54 1.67 96 -0.13 -0.13 1.78 1.92 120 -0.12 -0.15 1.99 2.22 144 0.08 -0.11 2.56 2.71 168 0.21 0.04 2.83 3.09 192 0.32 0.06 3.33 3.50 216 0.48 -0.07 3.55 3.60 240 0.60 -0.04 4.01 3.74 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.15 0.87 0.87 48 0.06 -0.03 1.05 1.08 72 0.12 0.03 1.25 1.28 96 0.22 0.13 1.51 1.54 120 0.32 0.11 1.73 1.85 144 0.30 0.11 1.96 2.02 168 0.32 0.03 2.27 2.34 192 0.30 -0.09 2.39 2.37 216 0.43 -0.10 2.39 2.66 240 0.54 0.01 2.63 2.72 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.57 0.58 1.20 1.24 48 0.62 0.74 1.43 1.48 72 0.57 0.64 1.62 1.62 96 0.50 0.61 1.80 1.81 120 0.44 0.57 1.95 1.94 144 0.39 0.54 2.04 2.24 168 0.24 0.39 2.08 2.43 192 0.35 0.21 2.32 2.60 216 0.20 0.11 2.51 2.67 240 0.19 -0.06 2.61 2.88 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.05 3.85 4.13 48 -0.25 -0.12 4.37 4.63 72 -0.25 -0.04 4.77 4.76 96 -0.24 -0.12 5.22 5.45 120 -0.48 -0.20 5.93 6.32 144 -0.53 -0.29 6.49 7.17 168 -0.63 -0.51 7.16 7.57 192 -0.77 -0.64 7.84 8.12 216 -0.71 -0.99 8.08 8.11 240 -0.80 -0.86 8.20 8.81 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.62 4.17 4.63 48 -0.54 -0.76 5.03 5.70 72 -0.69 -1.07 5.94 6.24 96 -0.91 -1.08 7.43 7.14 120 -1.24 -1.08 8.09 8.46 144 -1.38 -1.40 8.94 9.63 168 -1.38 -1.02 9.77 10.92 192 -1.21 -1.24 11.04 11.43 216 -1.29 -1.35 11.21 11.83 240 -0.89 -1.40 12.11 13.12 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.87 6.36 6.85 48 -1.23 -1.43 8.14 8.61 72 -1.47 -1.63 9.90 10.18 96 -2.04 -1.77 11.99 11.42 120 -2.48 -2.12 13.01 13.77 144 -2.58 -2.23 15.29 15.21 168 -2.55 -1.84 16.12 17.11 192 -2.59 -2.01 18.40 19.08 216 -2.74 -2.31 20.11 20.03 240 -2.59 -2.91 22.19 22.18 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.19 -5.74 10.82 12.28 48 -2.87 -5.51 10.97 13.14 72 -2.10 -4.97 11.95 13.88 96 -1.93 -4.98 13.41 14.88 120 -2.80 -5.80 14.56 16.22 144 -3.17 -7.28 15.35 17.80 168 -4.02 -8.61 16.36 19.04 192 -5.01 -9.74 17.39 20.00 216 -6.99 -12.35 18.57 21.86 240 -7.72 -13.38 18.99 22.60 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.19 -4.03 12.95 13.84 48 -2.13 -3.79 13.17 14.55 72 -1.91 -3.79 14.04 15.17 96 -2.01 -3.74 15.10 15.95 120 -3.05 -4.79 15.86 16.72 144 -4.08 -6.54 16.94 17.87 168 -5.19 -7.53 18.14 19.04 192 -5.87 -8.50 18.60 19.60 216 -6.97 -11.00 19.58 21.08 240 -7.54 -11.91 19.73 21.58 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.15 14.40 14.48 48 1.46 2.88 15.09 15.69 72 1.70 3.67 15.88 16.64 96 0.82 3.90 17.16 17.91 120 -0.84 2.42 18.39 18.80 144 -2.69 0.67 20.00 19.91 168 -4.61 -1.14 21.73 21.28 192 -6.31 -2.59 23.19 22.37 216 -9.39 -7.13 25.72 24.48 240 -10.50 -8.81 27.32 25.80 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.13 0.96 1.01 48 0.15 0.14 1.00 1.06 72 0.11 0.12 1.04 1.11 96 0.08 0.09 1.09 1.16 120 0.06 0.06 1.11 1.20 144 0.07 0.06 1.18 1.23 168 0.04 0.04 1.21 1.28 192 0.07 0.10 1.23 1.37 216 0.08 0.04 1.30 1.41 240 0.07 0.06 1.36 1.44 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.02 0.85 0.85 48 -0.08 0.05 0.87 0.89 72 -0.06 0.05 0.93 0.96 96 -0.07 0.10 0.99 1.00 120 -0.10 0.08 1.03 1.02 144 -0.17 0.08 1.05 1.10 168 -0.20 0.07 1.10 1.12 192 -0.22 0.06 1.16 1.18 216 -0.20 0.07 1.21 1.24 240 -0.19 0.05 1.28 1.28 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.53 0.60 0.89 0.91 48 0.63 0.75 1.01 1.06 72 0.63 0.79 1.05 1.13 96 0.57 0.74 1.04 1.12 120 0.51 0.69 1.06 1.13 144 0.45 0.65 1.10 1.17 168 0.41 0.65 1.11 1.19 192 0.35 0.61 1.12 1.22 216 0.10 0.35 1.11 1.15 240 0.06 0.28 1.14 1.13 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.56 3.75 3.73 48 -0.86 -0.71 4.09 3.94 72 -0.92 -0.82 4.46 4.24 96 -1.03 -0.92 4.59 4.47 120 -1.10 -0.99 4.84 4.67 144 -1.17 -1.02 5.16 4.94 168 -1.23 -1.19 5.41 5.30 192 -1.31 -1.25 5.68 5.52 216 -1.21 -1.19 5.77 5.71 240 -1.18 -1.08 6.03 5.96 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.29 -1.11 4.42 4.33 48 -1.45 -1.26 4.82 4.68 72 -1.55 -1.39 5.09 4.97 96 -1.53 -1.40 5.48 5.13 120 -1.61 -1.39 5.74 5.47 144 -1.65 -1.35 6.07 5.82 168 -1.75 -1.44 6.38 6.02 192 -1.74 -1.39 6.70 6.53 216 -1.87 -1.54 6.92 6.93 240 -1.80 -1.53 7.32 7.32 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -1.01 5.76 5.69 48 -1.35 -1.45 6.50 6.62 72 -1.48 -1.48 7.18 7.18 96 -1.52 -1.62 7.67 7.57 120 -1.63 -1.70 8.21 8.11 144 -1.71 -1.82 8.70 8.69 168 -1.84 -1.81 9.08 9.17 192 -2.01 -1.85 9.56 9.61 216 -2.07 -1.84 9.98 10.19 240 -2.35 -1.91 11.01 10.86 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.40 -1.31 9.80 9.61 48 -1.04 -1.51 14.62 14.17 72 -0.75 -0.80 21.01 21.11 96 -0.28 -0.18 30.64 30.11 120 2.32 -0.08 39.67 39.00 144 4.12 -0.10 50.79 51.60 168 3.79 1.29 62.50 58.28 192 1.08 2.51 67.65 66.44 216 2.94 1.11 73.93 76.20 240 4.37 3.88 83.09 86.76 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.04 -1.28 12.70 12.77 48 -0.03 -1.17 19.43 18.63 72 1.10 0.10 29.23 28.51 96 1.57 0.36 42.14 41.16 120 2.80 1.14 55.33 54.87 144 4.24 1.24 71.32 68.31 168 4.85 1.94 85.94 80.73 192 2.69 2.89 96.70 95.05 216 2.07 1.45 107.49 111.45 240 2.29 1.38 122.59 125.62 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.49 3.02 16.76 16.31 48 8.57 6.19 26.45 25.45 72 11.79 10.20 41.69 39.53 96 14.07 11.50 60.95 58.42 120 14.69 14.35 78.32 78.58 144 15.83 12.37 100.58 96.73 168 15.39 12.77 121.84 113.23 192 14.84 13.67 139.68 136.50 216 10.52 9.94 155.93 160.93 240 9.47 8.72 176.91 180.27 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.14 1.42 1.47 48 0.15 0.15 1.70 1.73 72 0.15 0.10 2.07 2.04 96 0.10 0.09 2.50 2.48 120 0.00 0.05 2.96 3.03 144 -0.04 0.00 3.60 3.53 168 -0.01 0.03 4.15 4.09 192 0.01 0.08 4.47 4.67 216 -0.17 -0.03 4.89 5.15 240 -0.33 -0.20 5.44 5.61 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.12 1.00 0.99 48 0.25 0.20 1.40 1.36 72 0.32 0.31 1.93 1.85 96 0.37 0.35 2.52 2.40 120 0.32 0.42 3.08 3.05 144 0.31 0.30 3.59 3.51 168 0.35 0.33 4.11 4.02 192 0.42 0.32 4.58 4.55 216 0.25 0.26 4.98 5.09 240 0.22 0.08 5.59 5.54 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.32 0.30 1.28 1.23 48 0.30 0.28 1.67 1.61 72 0.29 0.26 2.10 2.09 96 0.20 0.19 2.49 2.47 120 0.15 0.11 2.85 2.85 144 0.08 -0.02 3.21 3.16 168 -0.10 -0.14 3.45 3.43 192 -0.20 -0.27 3.71 3.64 216 -0.37 -0.35 3.74 3.80 240 -0.55 -0.50 3.96 3.88 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.48 4.02 4.02 48 -0.50 -0.49 4.86 4.92 72 -0.66 -0.63 5.82 5.86 96 -0.81 -0.76 7.14 6.99 120 -0.94 -0.82 8.33 8.38 144 -0.97 -1.02 9.54 9.38 168 -0.89 -1.07 10.53 10.46 192 -0.80 -1.03 11.09 10.88 216 -1.05 -1.07 11.39 11.75 240 -0.92 -1.09 12.27 12.35 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.55 4.65 4.58 48 -0.67 -0.56 6.09 5.89 72 -0.80 -0.71 7.66 7.40 96 -0.82 -0.65 9.42 9.51 120 -0.86 -0.69 11.34 11.39 144 -0.92 -0.75 12.93 12.84 168 -0.92 -0.82 14.71 14.02 192 -0.91 -0.94 15.69 15.65 216 -0.84 -0.73 16.63 17.05 240 -0.80 -0.84 18.17 18.18 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.58 5.31 5.29 48 -0.73 -0.70 7.29 7.09 72 -0.84 -0.78 9.76 9.44 96 -0.90 -0.87 12.55 12.63 120 -0.96 -1.05 15.37 15.75 144 -1.02 -0.84 18.02 18.25 168 -0.87 -0.86 21.15 20.04 192 -1.10 -1.08 22.82 22.45 216 -1.06 -1.00 24.20 24.72 240 -1.26 -1.32 26.79 26.48 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.88 -2.57 9.22 10.88 48 -2.87 -3.32 11.88 13.55 72 -3.24 -4.12 15.11 18.13 96 -3.16 -4.60 20.46 22.45 120 -3.13 -3.95 25.51 27.98 144 -4.14 -6.67 29.79 32.48 168 -4.73 -8.07 33.59 40.34 192 -6.13 -7.46 37.44 43.58 216 -6.41 -8.25 41.06 46.47 240 -7.08 -6.39 45.73 53.20 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.03 -4.35 12.18 13.60 48 -4.93 -5.08 16.61 18.26 72 -4.70 -4.90 22.06 24.37 96 -4.09 -4.00 30.16 31.43 120 -2.32 -3.61 37.02 39.90 144 -2.68 -5.25 43.12 45.07 168 -2.62 -7.31 49.78 57.09 192 -4.34 -7.45 56.13 62.43 216 -2.81 -7.13 58.97 70.83 240 -1.35 -4.87 64.40 76.36 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.72 1.27 15.42 17.00 48 4.06 4.24 23.10 25.44 72 6.09 7.35 33.07 35.81 96 8.13 10.69 43.57 46.32 120 11.78 12.25 55.44 58.88 144 12.49 12.36 66.25 67.56 168 11.96 10.55 75.66 84.18 192 11.02 8.84 83.43 94.23 216 12.66 5.86 90.43 108.10 240 13.21 9.53 96.61 110.71 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.16 1.41 1.52 48 -0.16 -0.18 1.56 1.73 72 -0.11 -0.19 1.80 1.91 96 -0.11 -0.05 2.08 2.19 120 -0.09 -0.05 2.33 2.42 144 0.07 -0.06 2.84 2.83 168 0.11 -0.05 3.21 3.20 192 0.18 -0.02 3.65 3.65 216 0.06 -0.13 3.83 3.84 240 0.22 -0.04 4.17 4.00 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.01 1.00 0.97 48 0.02 0.08 1.21 1.24 72 0.10 0.15 1.47 1.52 96 0.16 0.27 1.79 1.85 120 0.31 0.23 2.06 2.15 144 0.39 0.33 2.27 2.35 168 0.38 0.35 2.56 2.89 192 0.33 0.31 2.79 3.00 216 0.46 0.24 2.80 3.25 240 0.54 0.35 2.89 3.20 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.51 0.62 1.30 1.35 48 0.63 0.86 1.59 1.70 72 0.64 0.98 1.84 2.01 96 0.64 0.98 2.06 2.25 120 0.60 0.99 2.29 2.43 144 0.62 1.08 2.41 2.66 168 0.54 1.08 2.51 2.98 192 0.62 0.97 2.78 3.07 216 0.51 0.74 2.90 3.03 240 0.43 0.82 3.00 3.24 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.38 4.22 4.43 48 -0.39 -0.43 4.80 5.07 72 -0.39 -0.51 5.14 5.42 96 -0.46 -0.63 6.03 6.39 120 -0.57 -0.59 6.59 7.09 144 -0.57 -0.56 7.30 8.00 168 -0.68 -0.62 8.04 8.45 192 -0.81 -0.77 8.53 9.15 216 -0.97 -1.11 8.97 9.41 240 -0.96 -0.96 9.26 9.99 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.60 4.54 4.90 48 -0.51 -0.77 5.55 5.95 72 -0.58 -0.86 6.52 6.94 96 -0.75 -1.15 8.01 8.11 120 -0.96 -1.13 9.02 8.98 144 -1.25 -1.28 9.93 10.26 168 -1.35 -0.89 10.57 11.73 192 -1.12 -0.96 11.57 12.11 216 -1.08 -1.22 12.16 12.42 240 -0.87 -1.34 13.02 13.82 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.42 6.38 6.59 48 -0.80 -0.67 8.31 8.47 72 -0.90 -0.72 10.13 10.67 96 -1.38 -1.12 12.39 12.18 120 -1.64 -1.53 13.95 14.02 144 -1.92 -1.59 15.96 16.07 168 -2.02 -1.56 16.73 17.88 192 -2.15 -1.45 18.68 19.25 216 -1.91 -1.73 20.89 20.27 240 -1.76 -1.67 22.48 21.93