VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 20.8 21.5 48 -0.1 -0.1 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 29.0 30.0 72 -0.1 -0.1 2.1 2.2 1.0 1.0 36.9 38.1 96 -0.1 -0.1 2.9 3.0 0.9 0.9 44.5 45.8 120 -0.1 -0.2 3.8 3.8 0.9 0.9 51.7 52.8 144 -0.1 -0.2 4.7 4.8 0.8 0.8 58.6 60.4 168 -0.2 -0.3 5.5 5.6 0.8 0.8 64.5 66.2 192 -0.2 -0.3 6.1 6.3 0.8 0.7 68.9 71.0 216 -0.3 -0.3 6.8 6.9 0.7 0.7 72.9 74.9 240 -0.3 -0.3 7.3 7.4 0.7 0.7 76.1 77.6 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.5 1.3 7.5 7.7 1.0 1.0 15.5 15.6 48 2.2 1.8 13.5 13.8 1.0 1.0 23.1 23.2 72 2.5 2.4 20.3 21.4 1.0 1.0 30.5 30.9 96 2.7 2.8 28.3 29.9 0.9 0.9 37.6 38.2 120 3.0 2.7 37.9 38.9 0.9 0.9 44.6 44.8 144 2.8 2.2 48.0 48.8 0.9 0.9 51.0 51.4 168 2.2 1.7 57.3 58.3 0.8 0.8 56.6 57.0 192 1.8 1.4 65.3 66.7 0.8 0.8 61.5 62.0 216 0.8 1.1 73.8 74.2 0.7 0.7 65.9 66.0 240 0.7 1.4 80.3 81.0 0.7 0.7 69.2 69.2 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 5.6 5.7 11.8 11.9 1.0 1.0 13.1 13.2 48 9.3 9.0 21.5 21.7 1.0 1.0 20.3 20.4 72 11.3 11.4 32.0 33.0 1.0 1.0 27.4 27.7 96 12.4 12.9 43.9 45.8 0.9 0.9 34.4 34.9 120 13.3 13.3 57.6 58.4 0.9 0.9 41.1 41.1 144 13.0 13.0 72.5 73.1 0.9 0.9 47.2 47.6 168 12.1 12.5 86.4 89.0 0.8 0.8 52.8 53.5 192 11.6 11.8 97.9 101.4 0.8 0.8 57.0 58.0 216 8.9 9.9 109.8 112.2 0.8 0.7 61.0 61.6 240 8.3 9.7 120.5 121.2 0.7 0.7 64.4 64.4 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 96 0.3 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.9 120 0.3 0.3 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 144 0.3 0.3 2.4 2.4 0.8 0.8 168 0.3 0.4 2.7 2.8 0.8 0.8 192 0.3 0.3 3.0 3.1 0.8 0.7 216 0.2 0.3 3.2 3.3 0.7 0.7 240 0.3 0.3 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 72 0.1 0.1 1.7 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.1 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 120 0.1 0.1 2.4 2.5 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.0 2.8 2.8 0.8 0.8 168 -0.1 -0.1 3.0 3.0 0.7 0.7 192 -0.1 -0.1 3.2 3.2 0.7 0.7 216 -0.3 -0.3 3.3 3.4 0.7 0.7 240 -0.4 -0.3 3.4 3.5 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 2.9 3.0 48 -0.2 -0.3 4.3 4.3 72 -0.4 -0.4 5.6 5.7 96 -0.5 -0.5 6.8 7.0 120 -0.6 -0.6 8.1 8.2 144 -0.7 -0.7 9.4 9.5 168 -0.8 -0.8 10.5 10.7 192 -0.9 -0.8 11.5 11.7 216 -0.9 -0.9 12.4 12.5 240 -0.8 -0.9 13.1 13.2 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.4 -0.4 4.4 4.5 48 -0.7 -0.6 6.6 6.6 72 -0.9 -0.9 8.8 8.9 96 -1.1 -1.1 11.0 11.2 120 -1.3 -1.2 13.2 13.1 144 -1.4 -1.3 15.3 15.4 168 -1.5 -1.4 17.2 17.7 192 -1.6 -1.4 18.7 19.3 216 -1.5 -1.4 20.1 20.5 240 -1.4 -1.4 21.4 21.4 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.4 -0.5 3.9 4.1 0.9 0.9 32.0 31.7 48 -0.7 -0.8 6.2 6.4 0.9 0.9 40.4 39.9 72 -1.2 -1.4 7.4 7.9 0.8 0.8 44.6 44.0 96 -1.4 -1.4 8.6 8.8 0.8 0.8 47.9 47.3 120 -1.7 -1.8 9.4 9.5 0.8 0.8 50.7 49.9 144 -2.0 -2.4 10.1 10.6 0.8 0.8 52.9 52.0 168 -2.1 -2.4 10.7 11.2 0.7 0.7 54.7 54.3 192 -2.4 -2.8 11.8 11.8 0.7 0.7 56.7 55.7 216 -3.4 -3.5 12.3 12.6 0.7 0.7 61.1 60.0 240 -4.0 -3.9 13.3 13.5 0.7 0.6 63.0 61.9 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.6 3.9 6.9 7.0 0.9 0.9 35.9 35.8 48 4.9 5.3 9.7 10.2 0.9 0.9 44.3 44.5 72 5.2 5.5 10.9 11.4 0.9 0.9 48.9 48.6 96 5.6 6.1 12.4 12.8 0.9 0.9 52.5 52.2 120 5.6 6.0 13.6 13.8 0.9 0.9 55.9 55.3 144 5.4 6.2 14.9 15.2 0.8 0.8 58.6 58.5 168 5.8 6.4 16.3 16.7 0.8 0.8 61.2 61.5 192 5.8 6.0 17.6 18.5 0.8 0.8 64.2 64.8 216 3.3 4.1 18.9 19.6 0.7 0.7 67.7 68.0 240 1.7 2.9 20.6 20.6 0.7 0.7 70.2 70.0 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 48 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 72 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 96 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 120 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.7 192 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 216 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 240 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 96 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 120 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 144 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 168 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 192 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 216 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 240 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 1.9 1.9 48 -0.2 -0.2 2.6 2.6 72 -0.3 -0.3 3.1 3.0 96 -0.3 -0.4 3.5 3.4 120 -0.4 -0.5 3.8 3.7 144 -0.5 -0.5 4.1 4.0 168 -0.5 -0.5 4.3 4.3 192 -0.6 -0.6 4.5 4.5 216 -0.5 -0.5 4.9 4.7 240 -0.5 -0.5 5.1 5.0 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.3 4.3 4.3 48 -0.5 -0.6 5.9 5.9 72 -0.7 -0.8 6.8 6.8 96 -0.8 -0.9 7.4 7.5 120 -0.8 -0.9 8.0 8.0 144 -0.8 -0.8 8.6 8.6 168 -0.8 -0.8 9.2 9.2 192 -0.8 -0.8 9.8 9.9 216 -0.7 -0.7 10.4 10.6 240 -0.7 -0.7 10.9 11.0 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 0.0 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.0 19.5 19.5 48 -0.1 -0.1 2.6 2.6 1.0 1.0 27.6 27.5 72 -0.1 -0.1 4.0 3.9 0.9 0.9 35.7 35.7 96 -0.1 -0.1 5.4 5.4 0.9 0.9 43.7 44.1 120 -0.1 -0.1 6.7 6.7 0.9 0.9 50.1 50.7 144 -0.1 0.1 8.0 7.9 0.8 0.8 55.7 55.8 168 -0.1 0.1 9.3 9.2 0.8 0.8 60.9 60.6 192 0.0 0.1 10.6 10.3 0.7 0.7 65.4 64.6 216 0.3 0.3 11.4 11.2 0.7 0.7 68.7 68.3 240 0.4 0.3 11.7 12.0 0.6 0.6 71.0 70.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.3 -1.1 11.8 12.1 1.0 1.0 13.6 13.8 48 -2.5 -1.9 21.7 21.6 1.0 1.0 20.6 20.6 72 -2.1 -1.8 34.3 34.2 1.0 1.0 27.5 27.6 96 -2.3 -2.3 49.6 50.0 0.9 0.9 34.4 34.7 120 -2.6 -2.2 63.5 64.3 0.9 0.9 40.3 40.6 144 -2.5 -1.9 77.0 78.4 0.9 0.9 45.2 45.9 168 -2.5 -2.1 92.8 92.5 0.8 0.8 50.6 50.4 192 -2.9 -2.6 107.2 104.4 0.8 0.8 54.9 53.9 216 -2.4 -3.4 118.1 113.9 0.7 0.8 57.8 57.0 240 -3.1 -4.6 124.9 124.2 0.7 0.7 60.3 59.4 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.0 2.4 14.5 14.9 1.0 1.0 10.4 10.6 48 2.9 4.0 26.7 26.9 1.0 1.0 15.9 16.0 72 4.3 4.6 42.9 42.6 1.0 1.0 21.8 22.0 96 4.6 4.0 61.5 62.8 0.9 0.9 27.7 28.2 120 3.8 3.7 80.1 82.0 0.9 0.9 33.0 33.5 144 3.0 3.6 99.6 102.0 0.9 0.9 38.0 38.7 168 2.1 2.3 119.7 121.7 0.9 0.9 43.0 43.2 192 1.1 0.6 139.8 138.2 0.8 0.8 47.5 46.9 216 -1.0 -2.5 155.8 150.0 0.8 0.8 50.5 49.5 240 -3.1 -4.3 167.0 165.6 0.7 0.7 52.9 52.1 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 72 0.3 0.3 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 0.3 0.3 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.9 120 0.3 0.3 2.7 2.8 0.9 0.9 144 0.3 0.3 3.2 3.2 0.8 0.8 168 0.3 0.3 3.6 3.7 0.8 0.8 192 0.2 0.2 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.8 216 0.2 0.1 4.3 4.2 0.7 0.7 240 0.1 0.1 4.6 4.6 0.7 0.7 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 -0.1 -0.1 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.9 120 -0.1 -0.1 2.8 2.7 0.8 0.8 144 -0.2 -0.2 3.0 3.1 0.8 0.8 168 -0.3 -0.3 3.4 3.4 0.8 0.8 192 -0.4 -0.4 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.7 216 -0.5 -0.5 3.9 3.9 0.7 0.7 240 -0.6 -0.5 4.0 4.1 0.7 0.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 4.1 4.1 48 -0.1 -0.1 6.1 6.1 72 -0.1 -0.2 8.1 8.0 96 -0.2 -0.3 10.1 10.2 120 -0.4 -0.4 11.9 11.8 144 -0.5 -0.5 13.4 13.5 168 -0.6 -0.6 15.1 15.0 192 -0.6 -0.7 16.6 16.1 216 -0.8 -0.8 17.6 17.2 240 -0.9 -0.8 18.4 18.1 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 5.0 5.0 48 -0.2 -0.2 7.5 7.5 72 -0.4 -0.4 10.2 10.2 96 -0.6 -0.6 12.8 13.0 120 -0.7 -0.7 15.3 15.4 144 -0.7 -0.7 17.8 18.0 168 -0.8 -0.7 20.3 20.5 192 -0.8 -0.9 22.9 22.4 216 -1.0 -0.9 24.7 24.1 240 -1.1 -0.9 26.1 25.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.59 -3.75 8.26 9.21 48 -5.00 -6.15 11.71 12.92 72 -5.17 -5.99 16.06 16.55 96 -3.96 -3.43 20.78 21.92 120 -2.44 -1.69 28.12 27.57 144 -1.59 -2.36 31.27 35.58 168 -3.43 -4.38 37.55 42.16 192 -6.33 -7.20 44.36 46.79 216 -9.91 -7.70 49.66 51.29 240 -5.50 -3.04 51.62 55.15 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.38 -3.17 9.13 10.51 48 -1.78 -5.11 14.01 15.87 72 -1.16 -4.52 20.07 22.11 96 0.67 -1.20 27.07 29.70 120 2.74 0.96 37.37 39.41 144 3.98 0.15 44.09 50.99 168 1.91 -2.48 53.95 59.91 192 -1.68 -5.44 62.32 67.21 216 -3.42 -7.65 71.36 70.82 240 -0.11 -2.96 77.03 77.41 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 8.60 5.26 15.80 14.79 48 11.17 7.26 23.58 22.64 72 14.51 8.99 33.60 33.90 96 16.78 14.44 44.49 47.05 120 19.21 16.72 59.76 63.12 144 19.02 13.12 72.82 79.87 168 15.40 9.13 85.41 94.13 192 11.15 4.41 97.39 103.06 216 8.79 0.70 113.16 110.60 240 12.27 2.61 126.07 119.88 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.06 1.31 1.30 48 0.15 0.05 1.50 1.48 72 0.21 0.04 1.88 1.75 96 0.25 0.07 2.21 2.14 120 0.34 0.12 2.66 2.63 144 0.42 0.24 3.17 3.32 168 0.50 0.27 3.70 3.87 192 0.57 0.27 3.95 4.14 216 0.68 0.07 4.57 4.51 240 0.81 0.06 4.79 4.80 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.15 0.90 0.90 48 0.32 0.26 1.20 1.15 72 0.44 0.31 1.42 1.46 96 0.45 0.39 1.74 1.78 120 0.47 0.43 2.10 2.14 144 0.41 0.33 2.36 2.52 168 0.32 0.21 2.73 2.79 192 0.25 0.15 2.97 3.02 216 0.21 0.03 3.19 3.28 240 0.25 0.18 3.56 3.55 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.83 0.74 1.39 1.37 48 0.87 0.78 1.71 1.67 72 0.85 0.77 1.90 1.96 96 0.84 0.79 2.19 2.19 120 0.81 0.73 2.47 2.46 144 0.70 0.59 2.62 2.72 168 0.62 0.50 2.73 2.91 192 0.63 0.59 3.02 3.12 216 0.50 0.42 3.21 3.13 240 0.55 0.45 3.31 3.32 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.69 3.55 3.78 48 -0.29 -0.77 4.14 4.30 72 -0.36 -0.95 4.92 5.08 96 -0.46 -1.02 5.76 5.94 120 -0.56 -1.10 6.90 6.99 144 -0.78 -1.34 7.66 8.43 168 -0.88 -1.37 8.18 9.21 192 -0.94 -1.36 9.14 10.01 216 -0.97 -1.69 9.58 9.99 240 -1.13 -1.57 10.18 10.53 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.48 3.93 4.09 48 -0.53 -0.69 4.86 4.96 72 -0.73 -0.82 5.90 6.18 96 -1.00 -1.18 6.87 7.17 120 -1.22 -1.36 8.37 8.87 144 -1.41 -1.53 9.56 10.52 168 -1.46 -1.71 10.56 11.60 192 -1.66 -1.92 11.61 12.38 216 -2.06 -2.04 12.18 12.59 240 -2.28 -2.51 12.99 13.78 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.72 5.63 6.00 48 -0.89 -1.16 7.58 7.49 72 -1.63 -1.54 9.48 9.53 96 -1.85 -2.07 11.74 11.74 120 -2.72 -2.68 14.07 14.93 144 -2.91 -2.97 16.47 17.83 168 -2.94 -3.11 18.51 19.62 192 -3.23 -3.18 20.09 20.80 216 -3.72 -2.83 21.18 21.20 240 -3.81 -3.96 22.89 22.82 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.26 0.14 7.50 7.36 48 -1.84 -0.86 10.64 10.05 72 -1.83 -1.15 14.27 13.87 96 -0.42 -0.72 18.50 19.86 120 2.48 1.02 25.31 24.75 144 5.28 3.89 36.05 34.12 168 4.23 4.87 42.94 41.12 192 6.26 9.86 51.72 50.43 216 8.47 7.04 58.71 53.94 240 0.07 -0.16 59.34 56.43 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.87 1.30 10.37 10.05 48 -0.98 1.00 14.90 14.57 72 0.29 2.17 20.87 20.25 96 2.52 2.43 29.30 29.17 120 5.99 5.06 37.75 38.42 144 9.20 8.93 52.05 50.33 168 10.17 11.09 65.27 61.79 192 16.25 16.85 73.71 74.68 216 16.51 16.46 87.96 80.48 240 12.59 12.22 90.72 88.37 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.15 7.28 14.63 15.21 48 7.71 9.92 23.57 23.69 72 11.42 14.01 34.84 34.52 96 15.87 15.70 45.49 49.66 120 20.14 18.13 59.78 62.11 144 23.09 20.38 77.94 76.33 168 25.16 26.78 100.06 95.58 192 34.49 36.20 113.26 117.54 216 35.15 39.49 135.57 127.07 240 31.72 40.27 145.34 140.25 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.44 1.08 1.15 48 0.34 0.59 1.30 1.40 72 0.41 0.66 1.47 1.64 96 0.44 0.69 1.77 1.91 120 0.50 0.72 2.11 2.21 144 0.60 0.83 2.47 2.67 168 0.69 1.03 3.14 3.08 192 0.94 0.90 3.61 3.57 216 1.02 1.25 3.94 4.06 240 1.17 1.50 4.37 4.43 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.11 0.82 0.79 48 0.16 0.16 1.12 1.08 72 0.30 0.28 1.49 1.42 96 0.36 0.28 1.80 1.77 120 0.40 0.38 2.11 2.06 144 0.39 0.39 2.48 2.37 168 0.51 0.45 3.14 2.83 192 0.75 0.57 3.48 3.26 216 0.71 0.75 3.78 3.54 240 0.77 0.88 3.99 3.86 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.43 0.49 1.30 1.27 48 0.50 0.57 1.76 1.72 72 0.40 0.54 2.17 2.20 96 0.49 0.52 2.39 2.40 120 0.33 0.43 2.66 2.68 144 0.35 0.28 2.96 2.91 168 0.22 0.32 3.11 3.15 192 0.12 0.49 3.29 3.24 216 0.22 0.54 3.38 3.25 240 0.24 0.35 3.48 3.50 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.78 3.36 3.35 48 -0.74 -0.89 3.96 3.75 72 -0.82 -1.04 4.72 4.55 96 -1.04 -1.23 5.47 5.45 120 -1.33 -1.44 6.08 6.04 144 -1.54 -1.51 6.85 6.94 168 -1.29 -1.26 7.92 7.75 192 -1.19 -1.32 9.12 8.66 216 -1.40 -1.55 9.33 9.07 240 -1.11 -1.28 9.76 9.86 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.50 3.88 3.84 48 -0.70 -0.73 5.02 4.77 72 -0.90 -0.93 6.06 6.30 96 -1.17 -1.07 7.37 7.62 120 -1.34 -1.34 8.82 8.83 144 -1.68 -1.68 10.21 10.54 168 -1.75 -1.64 11.94 11.69 192 -1.56 -1.42 13.58 13.48 216 -1.57 -1.35 14.68 14.56 240 -1.29 -1.59 15.52 15.95 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.89 5.62 5.39 48 -1.02 -1.20 7.59 7.48 72 -1.56 -1.53 9.87 9.96 96 -1.81 -1.73 12.15 12.90 120 -2.00 -2.05 14.33 14.71 144 -2.07 -2.30 16.97 17.32 168 -2.49 -2.07 20.42 20.19 192 -2.41 -1.37 22.18 23.37 216 -2.39 -1.35 24.44 25.51 240 -1.50 -2.02 27.21 27.01 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.57 -2.50 9.79 9.50 48 -1.17 0.44 11.97 11.97 72 -1.12 2.21 15.11 14.78 96 -2.16 1.38 18.93 18.81 120 -2.04 0.28 24.20 23.27 144 -1.77 -0.36 29.92 28.48 168 -3.18 -1.45 36.38 35.06 192 -5.87 -2.00 40.55 38.53 216 -7.97 -3.84 43.78 41.40 240 -10.76 -6.67 47.95 44.54 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.96 -1.39 12.48 11.84 48 0.43 2.28 15.35 15.33 72 1.82 5.25 18.78 19.77 96 1.37 5.68 23.97 25.26 120 1.76 4.72 32.71 32.75 144 4.18 5.36 43.09 40.44 168 2.89 6.89 48.91 46.61 192 -0.57 5.01 54.93 53.89 216 -4.10 1.90 58.98 55.94 240 -7.05 -0.80 63.27 60.39 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.98 0.95 18.26 17.27 48 5.71 8.11 23.46 24.44 72 9.98 13.98 30.39 33.12 96 11.31 15.38 40.33 41.66 120 12.64 15.21 52.85 52.73 144 16.36 17.32 66.86 66.46 168 16.49 19.07 76.99 77.23 192 13.00 19.05 86.55 86.12 216 6.00 14.73 91.63 89.76 240 3.30 13.21 97.78 96.56 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 -0.04 1.34 1.41 48 0.13 0.06 1.57 1.66 72 0.17 0.12 1.84 1.93 96 0.21 0.18 2.13 2.14 120 0.23 0.24 2.46 2.46 144 0.29 0.24 2.98 2.90 168 0.33 0.36 3.50 3.42 192 0.31 0.41 3.88 3.77 216 0.19 0.42 3.99 4.02 240 0.17 0.34 4.18 4.04 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.08 1.04 1.03 48 0.18 0.16 1.24 1.24 72 0.29 0.25 1.45 1.49 96 0.34 0.31 1.77 1.78 120 0.37 0.34 2.10 2.08 144 0.48 0.45 2.47 2.48 168 0.52 0.55 2.76 2.74 192 0.41 0.47 3.03 3.02 216 0.29 0.39 3.07 3.12 240 0.29 0.37 3.20 3.20 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.32 1.28 1.29 48 0.26 0.45 1.59 1.60 72 0.32 0.52 1.86 1.90 96 0.33 0.53 2.16 2.20 120 0.33 0.49 2.46 2.49 144 0.31 0.49 2.78 2.76 168 0.27 0.47 2.99 3.00 192 0.39 0.50 3.15 3.15 216 0.18 0.45 3.20 3.20 240 0.17 0.50 3.28 3.32 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.63 3.76 3.70 48 -0.86 -0.74 4.40 4.58 72 -1.06 -0.92 5.07 5.28 96 -1.17 -1.00 5.79 5.90 120 -1.17 -1.01 6.71 6.64 144 -1.19 -1.06 7.56 7.25 168 -1.05 -0.96 8.08 7.99 192 -1.08 -0.99 8.48 8.42 216 -0.81 -0.77 8.94 8.75 240 -0.85 -0.55 9.02 8.87 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.62 4.20 4.19 48 -0.86 -0.86 5.14 5.17 72 -1.06 -0.90 6.06 6.15 96 -1.23 -1.17 6.95 6.98 120 -1.31 -1.37 8.10 7.94 144 -1.48 -1.35 9.40 9.07 168 -1.28 -1.41 10.34 10.09 192 -1.34 -1.32 10.54 10.73 216 -1.38 -1.51 11.28 11.17 240 -1.41 -1.24 11.89 11.29 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.65 5.87 6.05 48 -0.70 -0.93 7.41 7.56 72 -1.13 -1.25 8.85 9.13 96 -1.47 -1.70 10.60 10.66 120 -1.68 -1.87 12.80 12.57 144 -1.99 -2.10 14.59 14.62 168 -1.71 -2.08 16.19 16.12 192 -1.77 -2.12 16.80 17.73 216 -1.48 -2.03 17.98 18.20 240 -1.60 -1.84 18.79 18.71 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.82 -1.30 7.70 7.89 48 0.61 2.50 9.79 11.90 72 2.14 4.04 13.78 16.48 96 2.36 5.73 17.59 24.24 120 2.62 4.78 25.32 32.19 144 3.32 8.00 30.82 40.35 168 7.77 12.45 34.46 47.27 192 11.05 16.87 38.57 54.72 216 14.37 20.25 46.46 65.15 240 15.70 24.38 52.72 63.52 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.48 -4.72 11.57 11.70 48 -2.52 -1.47 14.82 18.17 72 -0.81 -1.05 20.60 23.80 96 -0.36 -0.38 26.67 32.52 120 -0.97 -1.74 37.32 43.30 144 -0.75 0.81 43.23 60.26 168 2.65 4.94 52.76 66.15 192 5.92 9.81 61.65 79.82 216 6.76 9.92 70.84 85.17 240 7.06 14.44 78.87 95.81 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.27 -1.19 13.26 14.14 48 4.91 5.05 21.25 23.97 72 7.37 4.96 29.56 30.66 96 7.00 1.71 38.14 43.34 120 4.16 -0.95 51.44 53.56 144 0.77 2.09 64.73 77.80 168 1.60 2.60 75.21 86.14 192 4.74 7.22 85.97 105.86 216 1.73 1.65 100.71 106.58 240 4.61 1.70 105.12 118.45 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 0.18 1.29 1.40 48 -0.09 -0.05 1.47 1.59 72 -0.17 -0.14 1.67 1.71 96 -0.18 -0.22 1.95 2.04 120 -0.32 -0.35 2.23 2.02 144 -0.43 -0.58 2.69 2.71 168 -0.36 -0.51 2.78 3.03 192 -0.33 -0.35 3.11 3.49 216 -0.43 -0.74 3.45 3.46 240 -0.42 -0.80 3.93 3.64 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.05 1.00 1.01 48 0.07 0.09 1.20 1.29 72 0.20 0.04 1.48 1.55 96 0.26 0.06 1.76 1.95 120 0.21 0.02 2.10 2.12 144 0.12 0.08 2.41 2.96 168 0.04 0.02 2.70 2.89 192 0.05 0.10 3.01 3.67 216 -0.06 -0.18 3.47 3.40 240 0.00 -0.05 3.61 3.85 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.36 0.17 1.27 1.34 48 0.28 0.15 1.49 1.74 72 0.09 -0.09 1.85 2.04 96 -0.10 -0.34 2.19 2.50 120 -0.19 -0.49 2.43 2.69 144 -0.44 -0.52 2.81 3.17 168 -0.61 -0.92 3.06 3.21 192 -0.77 -0.90 3.25 3.76 216 -0.83 -0.95 3.37 4.01 240 -0.91 -1.22 3.52 4.13 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 0.41 4.17 4.25 48 -0.30 0.31 4.69 4.79 72 -0.33 -0.04 5.10 5.58 96 -0.47 -0.17 5.75 6.02 120 -0.63 -0.19 6.89 6.61 144 -0.68 -0.24 7.41 7.59 168 -0.93 -0.34 7.72 8.47 192 -1.30 -0.31 8.16 9.07 216 -0.87 -0.81 9.45 9.60 240 -0.78 -0.71 9.99 9.96 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.51 4.93 4.71 48 -0.72 -0.61 6.09 5.87 72 -0.93 -0.81 7.57 7.08 96 -1.06 -0.78 8.67 8.47 120 -1.63 -1.07 9.58 9.03 144 -1.98 -1.16 11.11 10.62 168 -2.21 -1.49 11.80 11.79 192 -2.45 -1.91 13.15 12.66 216 -2.37 -2.27 14.39 14.15 240 -2.51 -2.33 15.51 14.31 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.61 5.94 5.93 48 -1.46 -1.09 8.00 7.45 72 -1.94 -1.50 9.66 9.40 96 -2.33 -1.68 11.44 11.13 120 -2.56 -2.12 13.55 13.11 144 -3.05 -2.10 16.20 15.13 168 -3.36 -2.74 17.62 17.61 192 -3.43 -3.49 20.42 18.71 216 -3.72 -3.63 22.62 20.75 240 -3.96 -3.43 24.22 21.04 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.09 -2.99 9.52 10.86 48 -1.76 -1.73 10.03 11.96 72 -0.66 -1.11 11.08 13.28 96 0.29 0.04 12.78 14.33 120 0.20 -0.41 13.51 14.82 144 0.04 -1.53 13.63 15.68 168 -0.34 -2.48 13.69 16.48 192 -0.36 -3.84 15.06 17.09 216 -2.28 -5.20 15.82 17.33 240 -2.56 -4.76 16.40 17.63 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.87 -1.47 12.50 12.54 48 -2.11 -0.61 12.75 12.97 72 -1.24 -0.22 13.59 13.81 96 -0.51 0.87 14.83 14.83 120 -0.87 0.52 15.37 15.07 144 -1.14 -0.52 15.57 15.53 168 -1.27 -1.56 15.77 16.20 192 -1.52 -2.65 16.49 17.06 216 -3.73 -3.90 17.00 17.35 240 -4.34 -3.78 17.31 17.28 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.52 1.34 13.78 14.05 48 0.98 3.78 14.01 14.87 72 1.94 4.75 15.05 15.85 96 2.24 6.12 16.26 17.40 120 1.41 5.76 17.41 17.93 144 0.36 5.00 18.31 18.50 168 0.06 4.95 19.40 19.67 192 -0.35 3.80 20.14 21.25 216 -4.45 0.79 21.02 21.98 240 -5.82 -0.06 22.63 21.72 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.29 1.11 1.10 48 0.22 0.27 1.14 1.17 72 0.14 0.21 1.20 1.17 96 0.12 0.16 1.23 1.19 120 0.10 0.18 1.27 1.20 144 0.10 0.16 1.34 1.26 168 0.09 0.16 1.43 1.33 192 0.12 0.17 1.46 1.40 216 0.09 0.16 1.49 1.41 240 0.10 0.11 1.55 1.49 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.08 0.90 0.91 48 -0.20 -0.06 0.93 0.96 72 -0.18 0.00 0.96 1.01 96 -0.16 0.02 0.99 1.03 120 -0.19 0.05 1.05 1.07 144 -0.21 0.06 1.11 1.14 168 -0.24 0.12 1.14 1.21 192 -0.23 0.09 1.15 1.22 216 -0.26 0.06 1.22 1.19 240 -0.28 0.04 1.25 1.23 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.52 0.53 0.88 0.89 48 0.55 0.59 0.93 0.97 72 0.53 0.61 0.96 1.01 96 0.51 0.60 0.99 1.05 120 0.50 0.59 1.02 1.08 144 0.46 0.60 1.02 1.15 168 0.46 0.64 1.08 1.21 192 0.45 0.67 1.11 1.24 216 0.27 0.50 1.09 1.20 240 0.17 0.39 1.10 1.22 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.65 3.96 3.81 48 -0.78 -0.75 4.37 4.13 72 -0.86 -0.79 4.58 4.41 96 -0.95 -0.87 4.81 4.56 120 -1.02 -0.90 5.05 4.84 144 -1.10 -0.91 5.11 5.14 168 -1.12 -0.95 5.29 5.15 192 -1.13 -0.98 5.61 5.49 216 -1.14 -1.05 5.78 5.62 240 -1.07 -0.97 5.84 5.88 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.15 -1.25 4.29 4.32 48 -1.24 -1.38 4.68 4.70 72 -1.34 -1.52 4.95 5.01 96 -1.23 -1.50 5.30 5.25 120 -1.26 -1.40 5.62 5.51 144 -1.30 -1.43 5.80 5.87 168 -1.36 -1.37 6.04 6.08 192 -1.34 -1.39 6.23 6.38 216 -1.50 -1.58 6.47 6.56 240 -1.49 -1.64 6.79 6.63 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.14 -1.40 5.97 5.92 48 -1.53 -1.76 6.74 6.95 72 -1.61 -1.87 7.25 7.56 96 -1.81 -1.99 7.76 8.03 120 -1.72 -1.99 8.28 8.49 144 -1.90 -1.98 8.73 8.88 168 -1.83 -2.01 9.22 9.47 192 -1.97 -2.11 9.72 10.01 216 -1.90 -2.08 10.06 10.21 240 -1.85 -2.00 10.32 10.57 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.83 -2.30 8.96 9.36 48 -2.80 -2.63 12.16 12.78 72 -3.03 -2.55 16.63 17.28 96 -2.34 -1.94 21.74 23.08 120 -1.33 -0.99 29.64 29.63 144 -0.21 -0.78 36.48 38.35 168 -0.81 -0.86 44.46 45.49 192 -2.11 -1.17 51.06 52.07 216 -5.11 -3.01 57.91 56.97 240 -6.32 -3.86 61.18 63.17 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.63 -1.55 11.48 11.51 48 -0.87 -1.31 15.99 16.66 72 -0.49 -0.82 21.91 23.38 96 0.26 -0.19 30.00 31.46 120 1.76 0.52 40.79 41.97 144 2.30 0.95 52.26 54.07 168 2.23 0.92 62.88 65.05 192 1.83 0.97 73.13 74.58 216 -1.03 -1.81 82.98 82.77 240 -1.96 -1.23 88.86 90.15 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.11 4.01 16.43 16.10 48 7.80 7.40 24.26 24.61 72 10.45 9.33 34.43 35.37 96 11.64 10.73 46.22 49.03 120 13.31 11.33 61.87 63.37 144 12.73 11.14 79.16 80.49 168 12.62 10.75 96.24 98.55 192 13.10 11.94 110.54 112.77 216 8.60 8.30 124.70 124.45 240 8.64 7.28 135.82 137.88 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.14 1.27 1.28 48 0.20 0.19 1.47 1.47 72 0.21 0.22 1.69 1.75 96 0.21 0.21 2.04 2.06 120 0.26 0.24 2.47 2.46 144 0.25 0.25 2.91 2.97 168 0.31 0.27 3.44 3.49 192 0.37 0.28 3.82 3.82 216 0.42 0.32 4.11 4.21 240 0.54 0.37 4.46 4.45 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.10 0.92 0.91 48 0.20 0.18 1.19 1.19 72 0.27 0.22 1.50 1.51 96 0.28 0.23 1.83 1.84 120 0.30 0.28 2.20 2.23 144 0.25 0.26 2.62 2.61 168 0.26 0.23 3.04 3.02 192 0.30 0.25 3.35 3.32 216 0.26 0.20 3.58 3.60 240 0.26 0.25 3.82 3.86 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.48 0.48 1.37 1.37 48 0.52 0.52 1.73 1.74 72 0.46 0.49 2.06 2.12 96 0.44 0.46 2.39 2.41 120 0.37 0.37 2.68 2.74 144 0.30 0.29 3.00 3.04 168 0.17 0.23 3.20 3.28 192 0.13 0.20 3.42 3.42 216 0.06 0.08 3.52 3.54 240 0.04 0.06 3.66 3.68 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.68 3.65 3.64 48 -0.63 -0.76 4.22 4.27 72 -0.72 -0.87 5.04 5.10 96 -0.84 -0.98 5.87 5.95 120 -0.94 -1.09 6.84 6.82 144 -1.12 -1.14 7.61 7.96 168 -1.05 -1.18 8.39 8.66 192 -0.99 -1.15 9.23 9.41 216 -1.02 -1.30 9.60 9.70 240 -0.93 -1.02 10.00 10.14 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.48 3.98 3.98 48 -0.64 -0.65 5.02 4.96 72 -0.77 -0.78 6.14 6.31 96 -0.98 -1.01 7.35 7.45 120 -1.11 -1.19 8.85 8.99 144 -1.35 -1.20 10.19 10.55 168 -1.40 -1.35 11.51 11.65 192 -1.36 -1.38 12.66 12.83 216 -1.55 -1.50 13.52 13.46 240 -1.50 -1.50 14.32 14.48 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.71 5.56 5.56 48 -0.84 -1.06 7.47 7.41 72 -1.31 -1.36 9.62 9.62 96 -1.60 -1.76 11.89 12.05 120 -1.90 -2.06 14.48 14.46 144 -2.09 -2.30 16.44 17.03 168 -2.12 -2.10 18.94 19.41 192 -2.26 -2.01 20.66 21.44 216 -2.37 -2.02 22.15 22.63 240 -2.18 -2.21 23.96 23.81 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.55 -0.83 9.26 10.21 48 -0.41 -0.79 12.32 14.34 72 0.42 -1.59 18.37 20.67 96 0.89 -0.32 25.08 29.00 120 1.35 -0.08 32.87 38.80 144 0.99 -2.26 40.39 46.91 168 3.77 -3.42 47.59 54.06 192 4.77 -2.26 53.14 58.57 216 8.03 4.02 56.47 66.54 240 9.19 7.89 64.56 69.61 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.47 -4.04 13.05 13.00 48 -4.01 -4.09 17.90 20.41 72 -2.57 -4.86 26.76 28.06 96 -1.29 -3.03 36.22 39.49 120 -1.34 -3.76 47.58 47.71 144 -1.63 -6.14 56.02 67.75 168 1.81 -6.86 67.95 76.95 192 3.27 -3.80 77.91 84.10 216 3.55 -1.17 83.78 88.60 240 1.28 4.30 92.38 97.19 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.82 -0.25 16.55 17.67 48 2.29 2.43 25.56 27.04 72 4.60 0.63 38.65 39.11 96 5.97 0.63 52.13 53.88 120 2.48 -0.07 66.60 64.83 144 1.00 -1.05 80.14 95.04 168 3.73 -1.82 94.03 109.23 192 6.73 -1.76 110.62 120.99 216 2.80 0.09 121.33 121.03 240 3.94 6.27 127.25 136.09 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.14 1.49 1.54 48 -0.02 0.01 1.74 1.77 72 -0.05 -0.05 2.00 1.95 96 -0.05 -0.07 2.40 2.31 120 -0.18 -0.06 2.68 2.63 144 -0.15 -0.13 3.17 3.19 168 -0.07 -0.17 3.39 3.90 192 -0.03 0.11 3.81 4.20 216 -0.36 -0.60 4.33 4.49 240 -0.47 -0.52 4.71 4.46 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.01 1.07 1.10 48 0.03 0.12 1.32 1.40 72 0.13 0.12 1.72 1.74 96 0.26 0.19 2.13 2.21 120 0.21 0.16 2.50 2.59 144 0.16 0.23 2.88 3.30 168 0.20 0.27 3.14 3.44 192 0.21 0.28 3.56 3.92 216 0.10 0.31 3.97 3.85 240 0.12 0.39 4.11 4.12 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.19 1.30 1.38 48 0.22 0.21 1.52 1.65 72 0.07 0.03 1.90 1.93 96 -0.13 -0.12 2.26 2.32 120 -0.20 -0.13 2.53 2.57 144 -0.32 -0.06 2.88 2.97 168 -0.46 -0.20 3.14 3.19 192 -0.50 -0.20 3.34 3.53 216 -0.51 -0.37 3.49 3.72 240 -0.54 -0.40 3.66 3.69 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.07 4.68 4.91 48 -0.56 -0.21 5.30 5.52 72 -0.54 -0.48 5.87 6.53 96 -0.52 -0.51 6.80 7.29 120 -0.65 -0.34 7.80 8.40 144 -0.82 -0.39 8.58 9.39 168 -1.30 -0.74 9.10 10.25 192 -1.34 -0.47 9.64 10.94 216 -1.49 -1.17 10.82 11.41 240 -1.46 -1.32 11.16 11.72 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.38 5.29 5.31 48 -0.60 -0.19 6.48 6.61 72 -0.56 -0.53 8.06 7.91 96 -0.66 -0.68 9.46 9.38 120 -1.27 -0.94 10.67 10.83 144 -1.65 -1.07 12.25 12.10 168 -2.01 -1.33 13.06 13.77 192 -2.14 -1.34 14.45 14.58 216 -2.32 -1.79 15.72 15.77 240 -2.34 -2.03 16.44 16.38 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.11 6.28 6.77 48 -0.96 -0.45 8.51 8.78 72 -1.28 -0.86 10.72 10.80 96 -1.57 -1.23 12.68 12.93 120 -1.88 -1.43 14.75 15.42 144 -2.27 -1.69 17.64 17.49 168 -2.53 -1.86 19.26 20.49 192 -2.63 -2.05 21.83 22.15 216 -3.03 -2.68 24.18 24.05 240 -3.08 -2.47 25.36 24.97