VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 22.1 23.3 48 -0.1 -0.1 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.0 30.0 31.8 72 -0.1 -0.1 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 37.1 38.9 96 -0.1 -0.1 2.6 2.7 0.9 0.9 44.1 46.3 120 -0.1 -0.1 3.3 3.4 0.9 0.9 51.1 53.4 144 -0.1 -0.1 4.0 4.1 0.8 0.8 57.4 59.4 168 -0.1 -0.1 4.7 4.9 0.8 0.8 62.4 65.7 192 -0.1 -0.1 5.3 5.5 0.7 0.7 66.6 70.1 216 -0.1 -0.1 5.8 5.9 0.7 0.6 70.4 73.4 240 -0.1 -0.1 6.3 6.3 0.6 0.6 73.2 75.6 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.5 1.3 7.5 7.5 1.0 1.0 17.5 17.5 48 2.4 1.8 13.0 12.9 1.0 1.0 25.6 25.4 72 3.1 2.8 19.2 19.4 1.0 1.0 33.0 33.2 96 3.5 3.3 26.9 27.2 0.9 0.9 40.8 40.8 120 3.8 3.5 35.3 36.0 0.9 0.9 47.6 47.8 144 3.7 3.3 44.9 45.8 0.8 0.8 54.5 54.7 168 3.6 3.4 54.8 56.1 0.8 0.8 61.0 61.4 192 3.7 3.9 63.1 64.5 0.7 0.7 66.2 66.5 216 3.8 3.6 69.3 70.1 0.7 0.7 69.9 70.1 240 3.6 3.3 74.4 74.3 0.7 0.6 72.5 72.8 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.6 4.6 11.7 11.7 1.0 1.0 15.2 15.2 48 7.7 7.2 20.7 20.8 1.0 1.0 23.3 23.5 72 9.9 9.7 30.5 31.4 1.0 1.0 30.9 31.4 96 11.2 11.2 42.0 43.3 0.9 0.9 38.4 39.0 120 11.9 11.9 54.8 56.9 0.9 0.9 45.5 46.1 144 11.8 11.6 69.5 71.5 0.9 0.8 52.3 52.8 168 11.9 11.7 84.2 86.5 0.8 0.8 58.7 59.2 192 11.4 11.7 96.9 99.1 0.7 0.7 63.7 64.0 216 9.6 8.9 105.8 108.6 0.7 0.7 67.2 68.0 240 8.9 7.5 114.0 114.3 0.7 0.6 70.0 70.4 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 72 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.3 1.8 1.9 0.8 0.8 144 0.3 0.3 2.2 2.2 0.8 0.8 168 0.3 0.3 2.5 2.5 0.7 0.7 192 0.3 0.3 2.8 2.8 0.7 0.7 216 0.3 0.3 2.9 3.0 0.7 0.7 240 0.3 0.2 3.1 3.1 0.6 0.6 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 48 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 72 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.8 120 0.1 0.2 2.3 2.3 0.8 0.8 144 0.1 0.1 2.6 2.6 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.1 2.8 2.8 0.7 0.7 192 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 0.7 0.7 216 -0.2 -0.2 3.1 3.2 0.7 0.7 240 -0.2 -0.3 3.3 3.3 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 2.9 2.9 48 -0.3 -0.3 4.1 4.1 72 -0.5 -0.5 5.2 5.3 96 -0.6 -0.6 6.5 6.5 120 -0.6 -0.6 7.6 7.7 144 -0.6 -0.6 8.8 8.9 168 -0.6 -0.6 9.9 10.1 192 -0.6 -0.7 10.9 11.0 216 -0.6 -0.7 11.6 11.6 240 -0.6 -0.7 12.1 12.1 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.4 -0.4 4.5 4.5 48 -0.7 -0.7 6.7 6.8 72 -0.9 -1.0 8.7 8.9 96 -1.1 -1.1 10.8 11.0 120 -1.2 -1.2 12.9 13.2 144 -1.2 -1.2 15.0 15.2 168 -1.2 -1.2 17.0 17.2 192 -1.3 -1.3 18.5 18.7 216 -1.3 -1.3 19.7 20.0 240 -1.1 -1.3 20.7 20.9 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.5 -0.6 3.9 4.0 0.9 0.9 31.4 31.2 48 -1.0 -1.1 6.2 6.1 0.9 0.9 39.3 39.0 72 -1.8 -1.9 7.4 7.5 0.9 0.8 43.2 43.0 96 -1.9 -1.9 8.5 8.6 0.8 0.8 46.4 46.3 120 -2.1 -2.0 9.1 9.2 0.8 0.8 48.9 48.8 144 -2.2 -2.0 9.8 9.8 0.8 0.8 51.4 51.0 168 -2.1 -2.0 10.5 10.6 0.8 0.8 53.6 53.3 192 -2.7 -2.4 12.3 11.9 0.7 0.7 56.1 55.5 216 -3.2 -3.1 13.4 13.5 0.6 0.6 60.1 60.0 240 -3.8 -4.0 14.6 14.7 0.6 0.6 61.9 61.9 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.2 3.3 6.7 6.8 0.9 0.9 33.1 33.3 48 4.3 4.4 9.6 9.7 0.9 0.9 41.2 41.3 72 4.1 4.4 10.8 10.9 0.9 0.9 45.1 45.2 96 4.7 5.3 12.4 12.6 0.9 0.9 48.8 48.6 120 4.8 5.3 13.9 14.1 0.8 0.8 51.9 51.7 144 4.2 4.5 15.4 15.5 0.8 0.8 54.8 55.0 168 4.0 4.3 17.0 17.2 0.8 0.8 57.7 58.2 192 3.6 3.4 19.4 19.4 0.8 0.8 61.2 61.4 216 1.9 1.4 21.1 21.1 0.7 0.7 64.7 64.9 240 0.2 -0.7 22.4 22.4 0.7 0.7 66.8 66.8 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 48 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 72 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 96 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 120 -0.1 -0.1 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 144 -0.1 -0.1 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 168 -0.1 -0.1 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 192 -0.1 -0.1 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 216 -0.2 -0.2 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.6 240 -0.2 -0.2 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 96 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 120 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 144 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 168 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 192 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 216 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 240 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.5 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 -0.1 1.9 1.9 48 -0.1 -0.1 2.7 2.6 72 -0.2 -0.2 3.1 3.1 96 -0.2 -0.2 3.5 3.4 120 -0.1 -0.2 3.9 3.8 144 -0.2 -0.2 4.2 4.1 168 -0.2 -0.2 4.5 4.4 192 -0.1 -0.2 4.8 4.7 216 0.0 -0.2 5.1 5.0 240 0.0 -0.1 5.3 5.3 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.3 4.3 4.3 48 -0.4 -0.4 5.9 5.9 72 -0.5 -0.6 6.9 6.9 96 -0.7 -0.7 7.6 7.5 120 -0.7 -0.7 8.3 8.2 144 -0.7 -0.7 8.9 8.9 168 -0.7 -0.7 9.6 9.6 192 -0.8 -0.8 10.3 10.3 216 -0.8 -0.8 10.9 10.9 240 -0.7 -0.8 11.3 11.3 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.0 19.8 19.8 48 -0.1 0.0 2.9 2.9 1.0 1.0 29.1 29.0 72 -0.1 -0.1 4.2 4.2 0.9 0.9 37.1 37.3 96 -0.1 -0.1 5.7 5.8 0.9 0.9 44.9 45.4 120 -0.2 -0.1 7.3 7.3 0.8 0.8 52.3 52.4 144 -0.2 -0.1 8.9 8.9 0.8 0.8 58.4 59.0 168 -0.2 -0.1 10.3 9.9 0.7 0.7 63.4 63.9 192 -0.1 -0.1 10.8 10.8 0.7 0.7 66.7 67.3 216 0.0 0.0 11.3 11.5 0.7 0.6 69.2 70.4 240 0.1 0.1 12.1 12.1 0.6 0.6 71.4 73.0 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.8 -1.8 12.6 12.6 1.0 1.0 13.5 13.6 48 -3.4 -2.9 23.6 23.9 1.0 1.0 20.7 20.9 72 -3.9 -3.4 37.0 37.5 1.0 1.0 27.7 27.9 96 -4.2 -4.0 52.7 52.8 0.9 0.9 34.3 34.4 120 -4.6 -4.2 69.9 70.8 0.9 0.9 40.6 41.0 144 -5.3 -5.0 86.0 88.8 0.8 0.8 46.5 47.3 168 -5.8 -5.7 102.6 103.7 0.8 0.8 51.4 52.2 192 -6.1 -6.6 114.5 118.2 0.7 0.7 55.4 56.5 216 -6.7 -6.9 122.7 125.7 0.7 0.7 58.1 59.2 240 -7.5 -7.5 132.0 132.5 0.6 0.6 60.7 61.8 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.6 1.7 14.8 14.8 1.0 1.0 9.9 10.1 48 2.4 3.2 28.1 28.9 1.0 1.0 15.3 15.7 72 3.3 4.2 44.6 45.9 1.0 1.0 21.1 21.3 96 3.4 4.3 64.5 65.2 0.9 0.9 26.9 27.1 120 2.8 4.0 86.8 88.9 0.9 0.9 32.6 33.1 144 1.1 2.6 108.3 113.3 0.9 0.8 38.2 39.0 168 -0.3 0.5 131.2 134.2 0.8 0.8 43.2 43.8 192 -1.5 -1.9 150.0 155.5 0.7 0.7 47.5 48.3 216 -4.4 -5.1 162.0 166.7 0.7 0.7 49.9 51.2 240 -6.3 -7.9 175.0 177.1 0.7 0.6 52.6 53.5 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.3 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 0.3 0.3 2.4 2.4 0.9 0.9 120 0.3 0.3 2.9 2.9 0.9 0.9 144 0.3 0.3 3.4 3.5 0.8 0.8 168 0.2 0.3 3.9 4.0 0.8 0.8 192 0.2 0.2 4.4 4.4 0.7 0.7 216 0.1 0.1 4.6 4.7 0.7 0.6 240 0.0 0.0 4.9 5.0 0.6 0.6 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 96 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.3 0.9 0.9 120 -0.1 -0.1 2.7 2.8 0.8 0.8 144 -0.2 -0.1 3.1 3.2 0.8 0.8 168 -0.2 -0.2 3.5 3.5 0.8 0.8 192 -0.3 -0.3 3.8 3.8 0.7 0.7 216 -0.4 -0.4 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 240 -0.5 -0.5 4.1 4.3 0.6 0.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 4.2 4.2 48 0.0 0.0 6.3 6.4 72 -0.1 0.0 8.4 8.4 96 -0.1 -0.1 10.4 10.4 120 -0.2 -0.2 12.5 12.5 144 -0.3 -0.3 14.2 14.6 168 -0.4 -0.4 15.9 16.1 192 -0.5 -0.5 17.3 17.7 216 -0.6 -0.7 18.2 18.6 240 -0.6 -0.8 19.2 19.5 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 4.8 4.9 48 -0.1 0.0 7.4 7.5 72 -0.1 -0.1 10.0 10.1 96 -0.2 -0.2 12.8 12.9 120 -0.3 -0.3 15.7 15.9 144 -0.4 -0.4 18.4 18.9 168 -0.5 -0.5 21.0 21.3 192 -0.5 -0.5 23.3 23.9 216 -0.5 -0.7 24.9 25.6 240 -0.4 -0.7 26.5 26.8 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.80 -4.35 8.63 8.66 48 -3.71 -5.66 11.67 11.63 72 -1.74 -4.12 14.86 14.30 96 -0.29 -0.94 18.18 18.26 120 0.19 1.13 21.25 21.93 144 0.52 2.15 25.30 25.12 168 1.06 1.00 29.25 31.58 192 1.92 2.32 34.45 36.28 216 0.18 2.06 38.89 38.33 240 3.12 1.87 41.70 38.17 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -2.45 8.87 9.02 48 0.91 -2.48 12.87 13.04 72 4.14 -0.26 18.02 17.55 96 7.34 4.23 24.70 24.67 120 9.03 7.77 29.65 30.50 144 9.48 9.37 37.36 38.07 168 11.39 8.80 43.58 45.32 192 12.25 10.61 51.70 52.59 216 11.08 12.05 58.25 56.12 240 14.52 15.09 65.28 59.54 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 6.32 5.89 14.86 13.81 48 9.21 7.66 22.43 21.42 72 13.72 10.09 31.97 30.29 96 18.32 15.50 43.51 43.79 120 21.09 21.16 53.51 56.75 144 21.50 19.95 65.14 66.07 168 20.52 18.54 74.50 76.60 192 20.24 20.54 86.03 86.81 216 17.60 19.62 95.53 93.93 240 19.89 23.56 106.85 101.61 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.45 0.18 1.32 1.24 48 0.62 0.29 1.62 1.44 72 0.72 0.37 1.87 1.70 96 0.85 0.44 2.17 1.94 120 0.95 0.54 2.48 2.34 144 0.95 0.48 2.85 2.65 168 0.90 0.55 3.18 3.11 192 0.96 0.62 3.38 3.47 216 1.06 0.72 3.81 3.73 240 1.07 0.81 4.30 4.13 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.21 0.92 0.93 48 0.12 0.23 1.19 1.15 72 0.19 0.25 1.43 1.41 96 0.27 0.32 1.66 1.72 120 0.35 0.42 1.86 1.92 144 0.41 0.43 2.14 2.12 168 0.42 0.45 2.34 2.32 192 0.40 0.52 2.55 2.49 216 0.43 0.47 2.75 2.64 240 0.42 0.54 2.98 2.88 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.72 0.72 1.27 1.29 48 0.70 0.73 1.49 1.51 72 0.65 0.66 1.67 1.71 96 0.61 0.62 1.87 1.95 120 0.60 0.59 2.08 2.11 144 0.44 0.40 2.31 2.26 168 0.34 0.30 2.44 2.42 192 0.26 0.23 2.56 2.64 216 0.02 0.10 2.69 2.62 240 -0.04 0.06 2.87 2.70 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.75 3.49 3.71 48 -0.59 -0.86 4.14 4.30 72 -0.64 -0.87 4.66 5.06 96 -0.65 -0.91 5.10 5.80 120 -0.62 -0.85 5.85 6.43 144 -0.62 -0.99 6.49 6.87 168 -0.70 -1.00 6.91 7.38 192 -0.62 -0.83 7.18 8.05 216 -0.60 -1.13 7.67 7.86 240 -0.65 -1.24 8.19 8.00 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.48 3.90 3.94 48 -0.73 -0.62 4.67 4.84 72 -0.88 -0.74 5.53 5.68 96 -0.92 -0.79 6.45 6.73 120 -0.97 -0.98 7.23 7.58 144 -1.10 -1.13 8.33 8.21 168 -1.34 -1.27 8.94 9.09 192 -1.51 -1.35 9.65 9.84 216 -1.57 -1.64 10.47 10.07 240 -1.58 -1.66 11.24 10.83 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.96 5.45 5.38 48 -1.16 -1.26 7.17 7.02 72 -1.65 -1.66 9.03 9.15 96 -2.04 -1.88 10.83 11.41 120 -2.25 -2.19 12.95 13.34 144 -2.62 -2.56 15.06 14.47 168 -2.83 -3.05 15.79 15.84 192 -3.11 -3.51 17.19 17.64 216 -3.45 -4.21 18.66 18.06 240 -3.78 -4.28 20.26 19.04 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.20 0.93 7.84 7.69 48 -2.23 -0.65 11.26 10.68 72 -2.97 0.82 15.28 16.04 96 -2.78 -0.05 20.58 20.65 120 -0.14 1.12 26.84 25.92 144 2.38 4.42 32.10 30.92 168 5.47 7.72 39.48 38.54 192 5.63 7.23 43.68 42.15 216 6.49 7.05 51.43 42.71 240 4.31 6.92 55.29 50.20 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.13 2.85 10.09 10.04 48 0.04 2.85 14.79 14.12 72 0.73 4.55 20.43 21.13 96 2.69 5.12 28.46 27.42 120 5.67 7.48 40.18 38.77 144 10.11 12.80 51.21 48.78 168 12.35 18.38 64.78 65.30 192 14.53 19.11 74.72 74.49 216 15.29 17.89 81.39 72.72 240 10.68 15.54 86.07 78.69 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.82 8.34 15.15 16.01 48 7.69 12.00 24.97 25.40 72 12.19 16.07 37.20 39.26 96 16.19 19.40 50.53 50.42 120 19.88 24.16 70.16 67.96 144 27.41 29.99 87.88 83.64 168 32.13 38.47 109.72 111.63 192 31.29 37.45 123.72 126.09 216 34.22 35.24 128.48 124.78 240 23.00 23.30 140.88 126.90 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.47 1.07 1.19 48 0.44 0.64 1.29 1.48 72 0.57 0.78 1.59 1.74 96 0.58 0.86 1.84 2.13 120 0.64 0.88 2.31 2.44 144 0.68 0.93 2.78 2.74 168 0.85 1.14 3.27 3.26 192 0.73 1.07 3.78 3.81 216 0.88 1.39 4.22 4.04 240 0.61 0.82 4.42 4.12 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.10 0.85 0.84 48 0.10 0.18 1.09 1.09 72 0.23 0.25 1.48 1.41 96 0.32 0.36 1.72 1.76 120 0.44 0.51 2.23 2.17 144 0.56 0.67 2.63 2.59 168 0.63 0.80 3.04 3.04 192 0.72 0.75 3.23 3.41 216 0.62 0.72 3.43 3.28 240 0.47 0.50 3.63 3.37 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.46 0.50 1.32 1.28 48 0.51 0.54 1.71 1.65 72 0.57 0.65 2.11 2.07 96 0.67 0.73 2.31 2.35 120 0.65 0.68 2.64 2.61 144 0.65 0.62 2.89 2.76 168 0.52 0.80 3.01 3.08 192 0.49 0.61 3.10 3.09 216 0.52 0.56 3.16 3.09 240 0.40 0.38 3.34 3.14 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.79 3.62 3.46 48 -0.74 -0.82 4.28 4.10 72 -0.86 -1.18 5.18 4.94 96 -1.03 -1.26 5.97 5.52 120 -1.13 -1.23 6.74 6.36 144 -0.95 -0.96 7.20 6.91 168 -0.70 -0.91 8.18 7.75 192 -0.71 -1.01 8.83 7.92 216 -0.98 -1.36 9.40 8.27 240 -1.18 -1.50 9.82 8.94 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.45 3.83 3.66 48 -0.53 -0.47 4.78 4.61 72 -0.54 -0.64 6.04 5.92 96 -0.62 -0.71 7.12 6.84 120 -0.46 -0.55 8.90 8.48 144 -0.49 -0.62 10.34 9.80 168 -0.64 -0.79 11.86 11.80 192 -0.78 -0.47 12.96 12.47 216 -1.18 -1.01 13.63 12.85 240 -1.41 -1.17 14.72 13.64 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.91 5.91 5.46 48 -1.04 -1.03 8.02 7.68 72 -1.40 -1.16 10.41 10.62 96 -1.47 -1.43 12.54 12.46 120 -1.21 -1.22 16.12 15.58 144 -0.81 -1.38 18.11 16.96 168 -1.40 -1.61 20.49 20.75 192 -1.52 -1.40 23.17 22.42 216 -1.81 -1.43 23.26 22.39 240 -2.26 -1.93 25.62 23.94 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.85 -3.31 10.56 10.62 48 -3.73 -1.79 13.20 12.16 72 -4.58 -1.83 16.02 14.84 96 -5.66 -4.57 19.65 19.08 120 -6.15 -5.07 24.44 23.22 144 -7.65 -5.12 28.45 27.76 168 -8.51 -5.82 34.81 34.20 192 -6.52 -4.57 37.38 36.01 216 -3.46 -4.35 39.05 40.42 240 -4.89 -6.11 41.18 44.46 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.75 -1.74 13.90 12.73 48 -1.39 1.36 16.85 15.46 72 -0.51 3.21 20.47 19.05 96 -0.59 1.62 23.76 24.38 120 -0.27 1.48 31.44 30.21 144 -1.58 1.02 36.57 38.79 168 -3.17 1.95 44.31 46.14 192 -2.44 1.01 49.20 51.15 216 1.63 2.28 52.28 54.87 240 1.17 1.34 55.45 58.68 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.13 -2.68 19.13 17.29 48 1.54 3.67 23.48 22.38 72 4.00 7.69 30.03 30.19 96 4.83 6.60 36.02 38.40 120 5.56 5.82 47.79 47.23 144 2.51 4.90 57.52 59.55 168 -0.06 4.97 69.31 71.18 192 1.98 4.40 79.74 83.22 216 4.74 4.89 86.76 89.07 240 6.09 3.41 92.06 97.49 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.24 1.36 1.41 48 0.38 0.52 1.63 1.75 72 0.52 0.71 1.88 2.02 96 0.62 0.80 2.08 2.31 120 0.69 0.85 2.44 2.63 144 0.61 0.79 2.82 3.02 168 0.59 0.78 3.15 3.49 192 0.58 0.77 3.55 3.85 216 0.53 0.92 3.81 4.16 240 0.65 0.92 4.10 4.49 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.05 1.05 1.02 48 0.06 0.01 1.19 1.20 72 0.11 0.07 1.39 1.38 96 0.17 0.14 1.59 1.63 120 0.21 0.14 1.83 1.87 144 0.22 0.15 2.02 2.18 168 0.17 0.18 2.32 2.39 192 0.18 0.11 2.58 2.61 216 0.19 0.14 2.74 2.90 240 0.26 0.23 2.90 3.10 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.17 1.24 1.24 48 0.17 0.32 1.51 1.54 72 0.27 0.41 1.76 1.72 96 0.30 0.40 1.90 1.94 120 0.21 0.33 2.15 2.11 144 0.13 0.29 2.34 2.26 168 0.11 0.23 2.57 2.51 192 0.10 0.21 2.87 2.82 216 0.07 0.05 2.88 2.90 240 0.01 0.07 3.04 3.11 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.48 3.68 3.72 48 -0.86 -0.46 4.24 4.34 72 -0.92 -0.57 4.83 4.88 96 -0.97 -0.52 5.50 5.70 120 -0.98 -0.57 6.19 6.17 144 -0.90 -0.65 7.00 6.70 168 -1.09 -0.69 7.37 7.36 192 -1.09 -0.77 7.79 7.99 216 -1.00 -0.98 8.13 8.13 240 -0.80 -0.72 8.57 8.53 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.61 4.01 4.01 48 -0.85 -0.75 4.85 4.88 72 -0.99 -0.95 5.73 5.68 96 -1.13 -1.11 6.48 6.71 120 -1.25 -1.41 7.51 7.54 144 -1.41 -1.55 8.47 8.51 168 -1.44 -1.76 9.35 9.61 192 -1.55 -1.81 10.15 10.34 216 -1.65 -2.04 10.58 11.04 240 -1.54 -1.87 10.97 11.43 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.30 5.94 6.08 48 -0.69 -0.57 7.67 7.78 72 -0.92 -0.95 9.04 9.30 96 -1.19 -1.13 10.29 10.98 120 -1.45 -1.54 12.42 12.25 144 -1.59 -1.48 13.70 14.14 168 -1.68 -1.63 15.83 16.41 192 -1.86 -1.77 17.44 18.00 216 -1.72 -1.64 18.46 19.26 240 -1.17 -1.20 19.16 20.66 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.84 -1.74 6.94 7.17 48 -0.18 1.50 9.13 12.93 72 -0.42 0.21 13.91 19.14 96 0.33 -1.61 18.59 25.20 120 1.35 0.51 21.06 32.41 144 1.89 5.70 29.83 40.25 168 1.62 4.41 38.47 54.17 192 3.20 5.74 42.95 60.57 216 6.59 11.98 46.20 66.94 240 11.80 13.85 52.36 66.59 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.21 -5.25 11.12 11.12 48 -4.18 -2.39 14.26 16.25 72 -4.24 -4.41 20.51 23.20 96 -3.67 -6.64 26.51 33.96 120 -4.27 -5.46 33.93 40.92 144 -4.18 -2.37 42.10 53.64 168 -6.00 -3.37 50.73 67.42 192 -4.79 -3.48 58.31 80.89 216 -1.25 0.82 68.50 90.55 240 0.59 1.44 76.45 92.78 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.03 -2.75 11.96 13.74 48 3.16 2.49 18.12 19.36 72 2.53 0.70 25.96 28.33 96 0.36 -3.49 34.96 41.86 120 -0.41 -5.25 46.23 48.99 144 -3.08 -3.30 53.88 69.51 168 -4.87 -2.50 66.61 86.18 192 -2.26 -3.99 81.27 107.50 216 -1.68 -1.71 99.67 127.97 240 -4.36 -2.08 116.31 134.71 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.17 1.24 1.21 48 -0.10 0.11 1.41 1.22 72 -0.18 0.03 1.50 1.43 96 -0.26 0.01 1.77 1.83 120 -0.29 -0.10 1.94 2.12 144 -0.39 -0.43 2.26 2.29 168 -0.43 -0.32 2.51 2.40 192 -0.41 -0.43 2.59 2.81 216 -0.43 -0.71 3.01 3.08 240 -0.47 -0.59 3.16 3.34 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.12 0.99 0.99 48 0.05 0.04 1.25 1.21 72 0.14 0.13 1.46 1.58 96 0.19 0.04 1.81 1.84 120 0.14 0.00 2.20 2.05 144 0.16 0.05 2.58 2.55 168 0.05 0.14 2.83 2.96 192 0.16 -0.03 3.01 3.40 216 0.10 -0.10 3.46 3.80 240 -0.13 -0.26 3.86 4.19 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.09 1.21 1.25 48 0.05 0.01 1.47 1.52 72 -0.15 -0.21 1.84 1.88 96 -0.42 -0.37 2.13 2.40 120 -0.50 -0.56 2.35 2.80 144 -0.73 -0.96 2.83 3.29 168 -0.88 -1.03 3.09 3.66 192 -0.91 -0.96 3.37 3.78 216 -1.17 -1.27 3.64 3.96 240 -1.24 -1.36 3.94 4.48 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.14 3.88 3.72 48 -0.06 0.06 4.35 4.34 72 -0.09 0.09 5.29 5.14 96 -0.46 -0.06 5.87 5.92 120 -0.82 -0.50 6.62 6.81 144 -1.10 -0.76 7.93 7.89 168 -1.15 -0.91 8.61 9.12 192 -1.05 -0.70 9.06 9.86 216 -1.10 -0.84 9.82 10.11 240 -0.92 -0.82 10.53 10.66 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.46 4.81 4.91 48 -0.72 -0.50 5.82 5.75 72 -0.96 -0.55 6.77 6.90 96 -1.22 -0.83 8.58 7.92 120 -1.28 -1.29 9.72 9.11 144 -1.38 -1.24 11.68 10.65 168 -1.74 -1.55 12.24 12.01 192 -2.21 -1.53 12.58 13.35 216 -2.29 -1.43 14.75 14.79 240 -2.22 -1.60 15.71 15.60 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.33 5.48 5.22 48 -0.97 -0.65 6.77 6.71 72 -1.30 -1.03 8.22 7.98 96 -1.54 -1.34 10.19 9.91 120 -1.37 -1.62 12.10 10.72 144 -1.49 -1.24 13.83 14.24 168 -1.93 -2.05 15.76 15.89 192 -2.13 -2.62 17.84 18.52 216 -2.08 -1.83 21.37 21.22 240 -1.99 -2.29 22.72 23.41 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.78 -4.70 8.81 9.36 48 -2.66 -3.55 9.11 9.64 72 -2.15 -2.66 9.57 10.07 96 -1.95 -1.67 10.78 10.51 120 -2.37 -1.93 11.76 10.97 144 -2.60 -2.13 12.93 11.97 168 -2.86 -3.20 13.65 12.82 192 -3.53 -3.99 15.45 14.42 216 -3.67 -5.09 16.69 15.87 240 -2.91 -5.04 17.38 16.97 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.65 -4.25 12.20 11.28 48 -4.13 -3.65 12.45 11.49 72 -4.02 -3.26 13.01 12.02 96 -3.49 -2.16 13.57 12.55 120 -3.84 -2.35 14.28 13.16 144 -4.15 -3.10 15.42 13.50 168 -4.56 -3.91 15.94 14.19 192 -5.08 -4.90 17.03 15.07 216 -5.20 -5.79 17.37 15.79 240 -5.02 -5.97 17.91 16.34 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.47 -1.18 14.26 14.00 48 -0.40 1.13 14.70 14.52 72 0.05 2.21 15.56 15.63 96 0.72 3.89 16.49 16.96 120 0.70 4.30 17.86 17.92 144 -0.60 2.10 18.86 18.67 168 -1.64 1.00 20.22 19.43 192 -2.49 -0.19 20.86 20.17 216 -4.15 -2.84 22.75 21.44 240 -5.49 -5.32 23.69 23.09 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.31 1.06 1.14 48 0.17 0.27 1.08 1.17 72 0.12 0.23 1.10 1.18 96 0.08 0.19 1.15 1.21 120 0.07 0.16 1.18 1.26 144 -0.02 0.04 1.24 1.30 168 -0.07 -0.01 1.29 1.41 192 -0.06 -0.01 1.36 1.44 216 -0.10 -0.01 1.37 1.44 240 -0.17 -0.09 1.46 1.57 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.16 0.90 0.90 48 -0.19 -0.12 0.94 0.94 72 -0.18 -0.11 0.97 0.98 96 -0.14 -0.06 1.02 1.01 120 -0.10 -0.01 1.07 1.06 144 -0.07 0.02 1.14 1.10 168 -0.05 0.07 1.19 1.15 192 -0.04 0.05 1.23 1.17 216 0.00 0.10 1.28 1.23 240 0.03 0.08 1.31 1.28 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.52 0.54 0.90 0.91 48 0.59 0.66 0.99 1.03 72 0.60 0.67 1.04 1.06 96 0.58 0.66 1.07 1.11 120 0.58 0.66 1.12 1.13 144 0.51 0.62 1.12 1.16 168 0.46 0.57 1.15 1.19 192 0.44 0.53 1.20 1.22 216 0.26 0.34 1.17 1.17 240 0.17 0.22 1.20 1.18 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.46 3.68 3.70 48 -0.45 -0.52 4.04 4.11 72 -0.53 -0.61 4.36 4.35 96 -0.59 -0.63 4.72 4.57 120 -0.53 -0.63 5.07 4.98 144 -0.56 -0.69 5.30 5.19 168 -0.68 -0.74 5.57 5.37 192 -0.65 -0.76 5.83 5.62 216 -0.56 -0.69 6.08 5.87 240 -0.48 -0.53 6.31 6.04 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -1.02 4.25 4.22 48 -1.07 -1.17 4.67 4.70 72 -1.14 -1.17 5.14 5.05 96 -1.04 -1.21 5.62 5.44 120 -1.04 -1.24 5.92 5.77 144 -0.92 -1.13 6.26 6.12 168 -0.93 -1.17 6.63 6.54 192 -0.96 -1.09 6.75 6.80 216 -0.97 -1.13 6.98 7.09 240 -0.78 -1.09 7.48 7.44 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.15 -1.10 5.78 5.83 48 -1.34 -1.42 6.65 6.69 72 -1.42 -1.53 7.17 7.42 96 -1.36 -1.67 7.57 8.03 120 -1.47 -1.70 8.30 8.49 144 -1.51 -1.70 8.73 9.21 168 -1.53 -1.82 9.48 10.03 192 -1.80 -2.00 9.97 10.30 216 -1.97 -2.31 10.38 10.64 240 -1.83 -2.23 11.09 11.49 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.66 -2.01 9.17 9.36 48 -2.49 -2.20 12.49 12.29 72 -1.86 -1.39 16.39 16.81 96 -1.08 -0.57 21.12 21.69 120 -0.68 0.17 26.55 26.68 144 -0.18 0.44 32.34 33.08 168 0.70 1.07 39.14 40.49 192 1.79 1.45 44.76 45.75 216 1.01 1.04 49.77 48.93 240 0.32 0.50 53.51 52.11 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.75 11.60 11.32 48 0.57 0.18 15.82 15.73 72 2.23 1.74 21.60 22.14 96 4.07 3.43 29.47 29.70 120 5.20 4.87 38.30 38.52 144 6.59 6.01 48.10 49.30 168 7.13 7.12 59.48 61.10 192 7.72 7.29 69.16 70.26 216 7.35 6.65 75.74 75.09 240 5.73 4.66 80.82 79.77 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.74 4.15 16.92 16.38 48 7.38 7.24 24.92 24.67 72 10.40 10.11 35.92 36.58 96 13.64 13.24 48.31 48.66 120 15.30 15.54 62.69 64.38 144 16.52 15.88 76.47 79.74 168 15.62 17.00 95.52 97.31 192 15.71 16.29 109.62 111.77 216 13.56 13.41 119.26 119.31 240 9.62 9.10 128.62 125.58 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.21 1.25 1.25 48 0.39 0.34 1.50 1.49 72 0.48 0.42 1.78 1.77 96 0.54 0.47 2.05 2.09 120 0.61 0.51 2.46 2.49 144 0.59 0.47 2.87 2.85 168 0.57 0.53 3.35 3.38 192 0.55 0.49 3.69 3.86 216 0.61 0.56 4.15 4.10 240 0.48 0.43 4.39 4.37 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.08 0.95 0.94 48 0.10 0.13 1.20 1.19 72 0.15 0.18 1.48 1.49 96 0.21 0.23 1.80 1.83 120 0.27 0.30 2.11 2.13 144 0.33 0.33 2.44 2.48 168 0.32 0.38 2.83 2.86 192 0.33 0.35 3.05 3.09 216 0.27 0.31 3.28 3.25 240 0.22 0.20 3.48 3.40 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.44 0.49 1.34 1.35 48 0.49 0.53 1.69 1.71 72 0.50 0.51 1.99 2.02 96 0.51 0.52 2.28 2.32 120 0.47 0.49 2.53 2.59 144 0.38 0.36 2.77 2.75 168 0.25 0.27 2.94 3.03 192 0.16 0.18 3.12 3.17 216 0.07 0.02 3.20 3.22 240 -0.05 -0.09 3.34 3.29 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.66 3.66 3.61 48 -0.71 -0.73 4.29 4.30 72 -0.79 -0.86 5.08 5.07 96 -0.88 -0.92 5.67 5.91 120 -0.87 -0.93 6.52 6.54 144 -0.80 -0.90 7.07 7.20 168 -0.79 -0.92 7.87 7.85 192 -0.82 -0.88 8.33 8.47 216 -0.88 -1.24 8.76 8.56 240 -0.89 -1.21 9.19 8.97 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.45 3.97 3.84 48 -0.59 -0.57 4.86 4.86 72 -0.67 -0.69 6.00 5.98 96 -0.75 -0.71 7.03 7.04 120 -0.73 -0.77 8.37 8.26 144 -0.76 -0.90 9.54 9.43 168 -0.83 -0.97 10.66 10.70 192 -0.95 -0.97 11.87 11.86 216 -1.08 -1.21 12.36 12.16 240 -1.14 -1.27 13.20 12.91 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.84 5.76 5.59 48 -0.95 -0.99 7.57 7.62 72 -1.18 -1.25 9.69 10.05 96 -1.40 -1.36 11.82 12.15 120 -1.46 -1.49 14.44 14.42 144 -1.44 -1.58 16.58 16.00 168 -1.64 -1.70 18.42 18.36 192 -1.76 -1.91 20.45 20.52 216 -1.97 -2.06 21.07 21.11 240 -1.96 -2.06 22.88 22.37 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.68 -0.47 8.96 9.92 48 -0.46 0.36 13.61 14.87 72 -0.26 -0.81 18.84 21.19 96 0.80 -1.38 26.14 27.51 120 -0.27 0.17 31.18 36.67 144 2.22 0.93 44.04 45.94 168 2.39 -0.73 51.50 55.88 192 2.89 -1.35 55.21 60.49 216 5.19 2.98 56.83 64.83 240 9.20 4.69 61.38 68.71 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.12 -5.38 13.59 14.45 48 -5.61 -5.52 19.23 21.86 72 -5.93 -6.38 27.03 28.48 96 -5.18 -5.37 35.54 40.63 120 -5.67 -4.25 47.62 54.37 144 -5.23 -3.30 60.71 65.61 168 -3.57 -2.98 70.13 80.00 192 -4.23 -2.52 75.53 87.78 216 -2.32 1.02 83.20 92.96 240 -0.04 1.18 90.77 100.67 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.12 -1.61 15.44 17.11 48 0.49 0.50 23.66 26.11 72 -0.40 -0.22 34.54 36.66 96 -2.63 -0.50 46.29 50.29 120 -4.24 0.46 62.40 68.20 144 -6.06 1.00 77.09 85.20 168 -4.41 2.30 92.53 104.69 192 -3.50 2.79 103.05 119.46 216 -3.40 3.84 116.32 127.89 240 -3.87 5.04 130.64 143.15 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.02 1.45 1.53 48 -0.09 -0.06 1.72 1.75 72 -0.16 -0.10 2.01 2.05 96 -0.27 -0.04 2.31 2.51 120 -0.20 -0.02 2.63 3.08 144 -0.30 -0.05 2.98 3.44 168 -0.25 0.05 3.56 4.04 192 -0.22 0.32 3.63 4.40 216 -0.41 -0.06 4.22 4.71 240 -0.55 -0.02 4.53 4.96 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.07 1.05 1.10 48 -0.04 0.02 1.38 1.33 72 0.01 0.08 1.63 1.67 96 0.02 0.09 2.02 2.05 120 -0.02 0.14 2.39 2.44 144 -0.07 0.20 2.84 3.03 168 -0.05 0.24 3.27 3.33 192 -0.01 0.24 3.38 3.75 216 0.01 0.21 3.76 3.83 240 -0.24 0.17 4.05 4.41 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.19 1.25 1.32 48 0.02 0.14 1.58 1.60 72 -0.11 0.02 1.95 1.96 96 -0.39 -0.15 2.25 2.33 120 -0.48 -0.25 2.46 2.68 144 -0.68 -0.51 2.96 3.12 168 -0.79 -0.43 3.25 3.40 192 -0.84 -0.44 3.55 3.65 216 -0.99 -0.55 3.76 3.78 240 -1.11 -0.57 3.98 4.05 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.12 4.38 4.44 48 -0.25 -0.07 4.99 5.25 72 -0.19 0.01 5.93 6.32 96 -0.40 -0.01 6.75 7.38 120 -0.53 -0.09 7.53 8.63 144 -0.84 -0.14 8.92 9.99 168 -0.83 -0.33 9.85 10.78 192 -0.67 -0.45 10.27 11.24 216 -1.30 -0.87 10.86 11.49 240 -1.32 -0.92 11.73 12.24 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.46 5.08 5.36 48 -0.74 -0.73 6.37 6.48 72 -0.87 -0.68 7.71 8.14 96 -1.16 -0.90 9.69 9.71 120 -1.28 -1.22 11.14 11.64 144 -1.43 -1.39 13.14 13.12 168 -2.06 -1.47 13.89 14.37 192 -2.30 -1.59 14.74 15.94 216 -2.61 -1.67 16.17 16.76 240 -2.47 -2.20 17.29 18.10 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.35 5.89 6.07 48 -0.63 -0.39 7.58 8.11 72 -1.07 -0.64 9.65 10.12 96 -1.19 -1.00 11.92 12.37 120 -1.06 -0.89 14.27 14.47 144 -1.01 -0.59 16.46 17.74 168 -1.88 -1.41 18.44 19.18 192 -2.07 -1.56 20.74 21.96 216 -1.86 -1.34 23.48 23.63 240 -1.75 -1.74 24.89 25.71