VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 -0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 21.7 22.4 48 -0.1 -0.1 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.0 30.7 31.3 72 -0.1 -0.1 2.6 2.6 1.0 1.0 39.4 40.0 96 -0.1 -0.1 3.7 3.6 0.9 0.9 48.0 48.3 120 -0.1 -0.1 4.8 4.7 0.9 0.9 56.4 56.5 144 -0.1 -0.2 5.9 6.0 0.8 0.8 63.4 64.5 168 -0.2 -0.2 6.9 7.1 0.8 0.8 68.8 70.3 192 -0.2 -0.1 7.9 8.1 0.7 0.7 75.0 77.0 216 -0.2 -0.1 8.6 8.9 0.7 0.7 79.2 81.4 240 -0.2 -0.2 9.2 9.2 0.6 0.6 82.0 83.3 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.1 -1.3 8.2 8.4 1.0 1.0 14.6 14.8 48 -1.8 -2.4 15.4 15.4 1.0 1.0 22.2 22.3 72 -2.0 -2.3 25.0 25.3 1.0 1.0 30.1 30.1 96 -2.4 -2.5 36.7 35.6 0.9 0.9 38.1 37.3 120 -2.8 -3.2 49.5 48.0 0.9 0.9 45.2 44.6 144 -3.4 -4.2 62.5 63.0 0.8 0.8 51.8 51.9 168 -4.3 -4.0 74.6 75.2 0.8 0.8 57.5 57.8 192 -4.4 -4.0 86.2 86.7 0.8 0.8 62.6 62.9 216 -4.9 -4.7 96.3 97.3 0.7 0.7 66.9 67.3 240 -6.0 -6.0 105.1 103.6 0.7 0.7 69.9 69.8 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.4 1.0 11.1 11.3 1.0 1.0 11.7 11.9 48 2.2 1.6 21.7 21.6 1.0 1.0 18.4 18.5 72 2.4 2.3 36.0 36.2 1.0 1.0 25.8 25.7 96 1.5 1.9 53.3 52.3 0.9 0.9 33.5 32.9 120 0.5 0.6 73.3 71.7 0.9 0.9 40.6 40.3 144 -0.7 -1.2 93.3 93.6 0.8 0.8 47.3 47.1 168 -2.6 -2.3 110.8 111.8 0.8 0.8 52.6 52.8 192 -5.0 -4.8 128.3 128.3 0.8 0.7 57.6 57.8 216 -6.9 -7.6 144.1 146.2 0.7 0.7 61.8 62.6 240 -10.1 -11.1 158.2 157.1 0.6 0.6 65.0 65.2 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.6 2.6 0.8 0.8 144 0.2 0.2 3.1 3.2 0.8 0.8 168 0.2 0.2 3.5 3.6 0.8 0.7 192 0.2 0.2 3.9 4.0 0.7 0.7 216 0.2 0.1 4.3 4.4 0.6 0.6 240 0.1 0.0 4.7 4.7 0.6 0.6 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 -0.2 -0.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 72 -0.3 -0.4 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 -0.5 -0.5 2.2 2.2 0.8 0.8 120 -0.7 -0.7 2.6 2.6 0.8 0.8 144 -0.8 -0.8 2.9 2.9 0.7 0.7 168 -0.9 -1.0 3.2 3.2 0.7 0.7 192 -1.2 -1.2 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 216 -1.4 -1.4 3.7 3.7 0.6 0.6 240 -1.5 -1.5 3.8 3.9 0.6 0.6 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.4 3.4 48 -0.1 -0.1 5.1 5.1 72 -0.1 -0.1 6.7 6.7 96 -0.2 -0.1 8.4 8.2 120 -0.2 -0.2 10.1 9.9 144 -0.3 -0.2 11.6 11.6 168 -0.3 -0.3 12.9 13.0 192 -0.4 -0.5 14.2 14.2 216 -0.5 -0.6 15.2 15.3 240 -0.5 -0.5 16.0 16.0 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 4.6 4.7 48 -0.3 -0.3 7.2 7.1 72 -0.5 -0.4 9.8 9.8 96 -0.6 -0.6 12.6 12.4 120 -0.7 -0.6 15.6 15.4 144 -0.8 -0.7 18.3 18.2 168 -0.8 -0.8 20.5 20.6 192 -0.9 -1.0 22.6 22.6 216 -0.9 -1.0 24.4 24.6 240 -0.9 -1.0 25.9 25.9 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.4 -0.4 4.2 4.2 0.9 0.9 37.0 36.3 48 0.1 -0.2 6.1 6.6 0.9 0.9 47.4 47.6 72 0.1 -0.2 7.5 8.1 0.9 0.8 53.4 53.2 96 -0.4 -0.2 9.3 9.4 0.8 0.8 58.0 57.6 120 -0.7 -0.7 10.6 10.3 0.8 0.8 61.5 60.9 144 -0.8 -1.0 12.0 11.7 0.7 0.7 65.0 63.8 168 -0.7 -1.4 13.5 13.2 0.7 0.7 67.3 66.3 192 -1.2 -2.0 14.7 14.2 0.6 0.6 70.6 70.0 216 -2.2 -2.8 15.9 15.4 0.6 0.6 72.6 72.4 240 -2.8 -3.3 16.3 16.4 0.6 0.6 74.7 74.1 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.7 -0.5 6.0 6.0 0.9 0.9 33.1 33.2 48 -3.9 -3.3 10.3 9.7 0.9 0.9 43.0 43.2 72 -7.5 -6.8 14.2 13.7 0.9 0.9 48.9 48.7 96 -11.1 -10.3 18.0 17.2 0.8 0.9 53.2 53.1 120 -14.4 -13.6 21.6 20.5 0.8 0.8 56.8 56.5 144 -17.4 -16.5 24.9 23.7 0.8 0.8 60.3 59.9 168 -20.1 -19.3 27.7 26.7 0.8 0.8 63.9 63.1 192 -24.1 -23.8 31.4 30.9 0.8 0.8 66.6 66.2 216 -25.9 -25.6 33.5 33.5 0.7 0.7 69.2 69.3 240 -28.9 -27.9 36.9 36.4 0.7 0.7 71.4 71.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 48 -0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 72 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 96 -0.2 -0.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 120 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 144 -0.3 -0.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 168 -0.3 -0.3 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 192 -0.3 -0.3 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 216 -0.3 -0.3 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 240 -0.4 -0.3 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.6 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 -0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 72 -0.2 -0.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 96 -0.3 -0.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 120 -0.4 -0.4 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 144 -0.5 -0.5 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 168 -0.6 -0.6 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.6 192 -0.8 -0.8 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 216 -1.0 -1.0 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.5 240 -1.1 -1.1 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.5 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.2 48 -0.1 -0.1 3.3 3.2 72 -0.2 -0.2 3.9 3.9 96 -0.3 -0.3 4.4 4.3 120 -0.3 -0.4 4.8 4.7 144 -0.3 -0.4 5.2 5.0 168 -0.3 -0.4 5.6 5.4 192 -0.2 -0.3 5.9 5.8 216 -0.1 -0.1 6.2 6.1 240 -0.1 -0.1 6.5 6.4 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.3 4.1 4.2 48 -0.5 -0.5 5.9 5.9 72 -0.6 -0.7 7.1 7.1 96 -0.7 -0.7 8.0 8.0 120 -0.7 -0.8 8.9 8.8 144 -0.7 -0.8 9.6 9.5 168 -0.8 -0.8 10.4 10.3 192 -0.8 -0.8 10.9 10.9 216 -0.8 -0.7 11.4 11.6 240 -0.9 -0.9 11.6 11.9 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 20.3 20.1 48 0.0 0.1 2.4 2.3 1.0 1.0 29.0 28.6 72 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.3 1.0 1.0 36.3 35.7 96 0.0 0.0 4.7 4.5 0.9 0.9 44.0 43.2 120 0.0 0.0 5.9 5.8 0.9 0.9 50.7 50.3 144 0.0 0.1 7.0 6.9 0.8 0.9 56.5 56.0 168 0.0 0.1 8.1 8.1 0.8 0.8 61.4 61.3 192 0.1 0.1 8.9 8.9 0.7 0.7 65.7 65.2 216 0.2 0.1 9.9 9.9 0.7 0.7 68.8 68.8 240 0.2 0.2 10.8 10.4 0.7 0.7 72.0 71.2 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.2 -0.8 11.6 11.6 1.0 1.0 14.7 14.4 48 -2.4 -1.5 20.8 20.6 1.0 1.0 21.8 21.7 72 -2.7 -2.2 31.8 30.9 1.0 1.0 28.2 28.0 96 -2.6 -2.7 44.2 43.7 0.9 0.9 34.8 34.5 120 -2.9 -2.6 57.8 57.3 0.9 0.9 40.9 40.7 144 -3.1 -2.2 70.8 70.2 0.9 0.9 46.1 45.8 168 -3.0 -2.4 83.8 83.4 0.8 0.8 50.8 50.7 192 -3.2 -3.0 93.9 93.0 0.8 0.8 54.7 54.1 216 -2.7 -3.0 104.9 103.9 0.7 0.7 57.9 57.5 240 -2.0 -2.6 114.7 111.9 0.7 0.7 60.7 59.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.0 2.4 14.5 14.6 1.0 1.0 11.5 11.3 48 2.9 3.7 26.9 27.0 1.0 1.0 17.5 17.4 72 3.3 3.8 42.1 41.2 1.0 1.0 23.4 23.4 96 3.3 3.3 59.4 58.3 0.9 0.9 29.8 29.4 120 2.8 2.9 77.4 76.2 0.9 0.9 35.6 35.0 144 2.0 3.1 96.0 94.0 0.9 0.9 40.8 40.2 168 1.8 2.8 116.0 114.2 0.8 0.8 45.8 45.4 192 -0.5 -0.2 130.0 129.6 0.8 0.8 49.4 49.1 216 -0.8 -1.4 145.4 144.1 0.7 0.7 52.9 52.5 240 -1.1 -1.5 159.0 157.0 0.7 0.7 55.7 55.0 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 72 0.3 0.3 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 0.3 0.3 2.3 2.2 0.9 0.9 120 0.4 0.3 2.7 2.7 0.9 0.9 144 0.4 0.4 3.2 3.1 0.8 0.8 168 0.4 0.4 3.6 3.6 0.8 0.8 192 0.3 0.3 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 216 0.3 0.3 4.3 4.2 0.7 0.7 240 0.3 0.3 4.5 4.5 0.6 0.6 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 -0.1 -0.1 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 96 -0.2 -0.2 2.4 2.3 0.9 0.9 120 -0.4 -0.3 2.8 2.8 0.8 0.8 144 -0.5 -0.5 3.2 3.1 0.8 0.8 168 -0.6 -0.6 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 192 -0.8 -0.8 3.8 3.7 0.7 0.7 216 -0.9 -0.9 4.0 3.9 0.6 0.7 240 -1.0 -1.0 4.2 4.1 0.6 0.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 4.2 4.1 48 -0.1 -0.1 6.2 6.1 72 -0.1 -0.1 7.8 7.8 96 -0.2 -0.2 9.6 9.5 120 -0.3 -0.3 11.3 11.2 144 -0.4 -0.4 12.9 12.8 168 -0.5 -0.5 14.3 14.2 192 -0.6 -0.6 15.4 15.3 216 -0.6 -0.6 16.4 16.2 240 -0.6 -0.5 17.4 17.0 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 5.2 5.2 48 -0.2 -0.2 7.9 7.9 72 -0.3 -0.4 10.4 10.4 96 -0.4 -0.4 13.2 13.1 120 -0.6 -0.5 15.8 15.7 144 -0.6 -0.5 18.6 18.2 168 -0.7 -0.5 21.1 20.8 192 -0.8 -0.7 22.9 22.6 216 -0.7 -0.7 24.8 24.4 240 -0.7 -0.6 26.3 25.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.03 -0.85 8.96 8.75 48 -2.22 -1.68 14.43 13.88 72 -2.38 -2.35 20.92 20.12 96 -2.54 -1.32 26.39 26.68 120 -4.58 0.27 36.06 36.51 144 -7.00 -3.75 41.40 42.39 168 -10.78 -5.83 50.41 52.30 192 -11.25 -6.64 56.68 58.57 216 -8.98 -5.85 58.92 62.25 240 -1.24 -5.14 61.68 70.36 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 -0.41 11.67 11.36 48 1.00 -1.17 19.24 19.29 72 1.06 -0.73 28.30 28.46 96 1.96 1.39 40.30 39.22 120 -0.74 0.02 56.31 54.30 144 -3.43 -2.91 66.97 66.34 168 -8.40 -4.21 79.38 84.79 192 -6.72 -4.65 84.51 92.58 216 -4.28 -3.87 97.54 97.34 240 2.94 -2.99 108.57 114.74 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 8.55 5.01 19.99 16.69 48 10.35 5.43 32.06 28.82 72 12.04 6.55 48.35 45.38 96 11.74 6.10 67.27 61.17 120 9.64 6.95 96.44 89.81 144 0.80 5.08 112.09 109.54 168 -3.17 -1.19 123.53 135.73 192 -1.63 -5.39 146.65 148.01 216 -1.77 -4.92 160.56 158.21 240 4.23 -7.29 181.12 178.23 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.13 1.44 1.50 48 -0.05 -0.20 1.84 1.85 72 -0.04 -0.18 2.26 2.30 96 -0.02 -0.25 2.77 2.62 120 -0.20 -0.44 3.25 3.29 144 -0.44 -0.57 3.88 3.75 168 -0.31 -0.51 4.59 4.42 192 -0.16 -0.40 4.87 4.89 216 0.07 -0.14 5.35 5.38 240 0.29 -0.35 5.87 5.94 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.36 0.27 1.12 1.08 48 0.52 0.40 1.56 1.50 72 0.65 0.48 2.11 2.00 96 0.71 0.56 2.66 2.54 120 0.70 0.52 3.35 3.26 144 0.69 0.55 3.75 3.76 168 0.60 0.53 4.25 4.23 192 0.68 0.44 4.57 4.39 216 0.64 0.48 4.96 4.79 240 0.58 0.39 5.36 5.33 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.46 0.27 1.34 1.22 48 0.23 0.05 1.66 1.64 72 -0.01 -0.19 2.03 2.02 96 -0.27 -0.45 2.45 2.41 120 -0.35 -0.50 2.71 2.81 144 -0.48 -0.54 3.12 3.09 168 -0.54 -0.74 3.38 3.29 192 -0.70 -0.90 3.54 3.59 216 -0.94 -1.08 3.74 3.68 240 -1.12 -1.22 3.97 3.88 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.35 4.17 4.13 48 -0.25 -0.26 5.14 5.15 72 -0.25 -0.19 6.21 6.22 96 -0.23 -0.20 7.37 7.13 120 -0.17 -0.19 8.76 8.97 144 -0.28 -0.38 9.56 9.52 168 -0.47 -0.75 10.57 10.76 192 -0.69 -1.08 11.20 11.12 216 -1.09 -1.27 11.55 11.57 240 -1.25 -0.91 11.80 12.47 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.71 4.90 4.91 48 -0.72 -0.72 6.45 6.36 72 -0.82 -0.85 7.78 8.04 96 -0.74 -0.91 9.65 9.54 120 -0.79 -1.05 11.63 11.31 144 -0.96 -1.03 13.37 13.19 168 -1.18 -1.19 15.23 16.15 192 -1.44 -1.90 15.48 16.33 216 -2.01 -1.88 16.74 16.61 240 -2.11 -1.66 18.75 18.31 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.78 6.92 6.76 48 -0.80 -0.82 9.27 9.32 72 -1.47 -1.38 12.22 12.62 96 -1.50 -1.60 15.67 15.25 120 -1.94 -1.96 19.45 19.67 144 -2.01 -2.11 22.91 22.67 168 -2.28 -2.47 26.62 27.50 192 -2.80 -3.11 26.95 28.03 216 -3.21 -2.94 29.30 28.68 240 -3.52 -3.09 32.91 31.26 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.05 -2.06 8.90 8.48 48 -1.63 -2.87 12.36 12.29 72 -0.45 -3.73 17.67 17.47 96 0.08 -2.89 27.99 25.44 120 -0.51 -2.76 36.57 32.78 144 9.89 -2.98 44.21 43.47 168 17.91 -1.61 60.01 51.80 192 15.28 2.78 69.51 61.98 216 15.32 9.95 73.61 68.29 240 15.85 14.79 75.72 65.95 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.97 -1.69 11.57 11.75 48 0.10 -2.26 16.84 17.39 72 2.80 -1.10 25.79 25.89 96 2.87 -0.92 42.40 36.33 120 3.35 2.05 52.80 50.76 144 12.21 3.68 64.83 65.86 168 25.35 5.77 90.64 80.63 192 23.68 8.65 106.20 90.93 216 23.49 16.59 116.87 106.26 240 25.81 10.34 124.77 109.47 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.54 5.01 15.94 16.30 48 8.87 8.51 26.99 26.71 72 12.46 11.56 39.85 40.70 96 13.47 11.67 63.90 57.92 120 12.05 16.32 81.14 76.49 144 20.09 17.35 101.75 98.15 168 35.82 18.50 129.87 116.58 192 32.19 18.28 154.13 128.11 216 27.74 26.18 158.73 150.24 240 20.95 12.75 173.56 160.97 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.09 1.28 1.18 48 -0.12 -0.14 1.48 1.35 72 -0.15 -0.08 1.76 1.61 96 -0.08 -0.07 2.13 1.96 120 -0.17 0.05 2.60 2.41 144 -0.12 -0.16 2.94 3.01 168 0.07 0.13 3.56 3.48 192 0.16 0.10 4.14 3.93 216 0.32 0.31 4.53 4.15 240 0.34 -0.09 5.16 4.67 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.31 1.00 1.04 48 0.47 0.46 1.40 1.42 72 0.55 0.58 1.87 1.84 96 0.73 0.58 2.34 2.27 120 0.49 0.77 2.64 2.60 144 0.51 0.78 3.22 3.16 168 0.88 0.87 3.67 3.45 192 0.80 0.75 4.11 3.81 216 0.72 0.84 4.57 4.30 240 0.90 0.31 5.01 4.63 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.35 1.09 1.13 48 0.24 0.33 1.50 1.56 72 0.18 0.36 1.94 1.89 96 0.03 0.19 2.15 2.08 120 -0.12 0.18 2.53 2.40 144 -0.26 0.00 2.73 2.59 168 -0.41 -0.07 2.90 2.86 192 -0.45 -0.33 3.01 2.87 216 -0.79 -0.40 3.17 2.88 240 -0.95 -0.46 3.30 3.19 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.29 3.81 3.72 48 -0.15 -0.26 4.41 4.31 72 -0.14 -0.13 5.60 5.25 96 -0.16 -0.31 6.69 6.24 120 -0.11 -0.17 7.50 7.14 144 -0.29 -0.28 8.02 8.49 168 -0.50 -0.32 9.85 9.52 192 -0.85 -0.57 10.53 10.07 216 -1.25 -0.89 10.89 10.62 240 -1.30 -0.90 11.65 10.68 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.40 4.66 4.33 48 -0.30 -0.31 5.97 5.75 72 -0.42 -0.39 7.50 7.04 96 -0.37 -0.35 9.29 8.83 120 -0.15 -0.04 10.82 10.49 144 -0.05 -0.34 12.13 12.16 168 -0.70 -0.61 14.36 13.49 192 -0.99 -0.92 16.13 15.45 216 -1.48 -1.11 17.50 16.89 240 -1.86 -1.17 18.49 17.56 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.30 6.14 5.96 48 0.07 0.16 8.97 8.61 72 -0.13 0.13 11.67 11.45 96 0.04 0.30 14.86 14.31 120 0.23 0.66 17.19 16.70 144 0.64 -0.12 19.65 19.70 168 -0.28 -0.14 23.62 22.32 192 -0.85 -0.57 25.33 24.66 216 -1.24 -1.15 27.51 27.40 240 -1.17 -1.28 29.77 27.84 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.45 8.32 8.42 48 -0.32 -0.57 11.14 10.81 72 0.57 1.09 14.67 14.68 96 0.90 1.41 19.52 18.64 120 1.90 0.40 27.45 25.38 144 4.29 -1.15 34.69 32.62 168 3.95 2.01 41.87 39.77 192 8.62 5.06 50.20 47.89 216 7.85 6.30 52.00 52.33 240 7.24 5.29 55.60 54.54 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.41 -2.14 11.48 11.51 48 -2.14 -2.35 14.94 14.72 72 -0.85 -0.52 19.92 20.44 96 0.14 0.46 28.49 26.01 120 1.24 -1.14 38.47 35.96 144 3.10 -0.82 49.98 45.86 168 3.98 2.37 65.40 58.66 192 6.21 4.17 76.19 71.78 216 7.10 5.25 83.18 82.45 240 5.07 2.81 86.51 86.33 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.98 0.19 17.79 17.91 48 0.24 1.88 21.86 22.57 72 2.98 5.33 29.38 29.92 96 4.97 6.20 42.37 39.12 120 6.25 4.73 56.85 54.38 144 5.52 5.57 74.58 67.50 168 6.07 8.75 97.60 87.31 192 6.61 8.54 115.63 109.19 216 6.88 8.53 126.43 125.51 240 5.31 1.90 132.75 131.93 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.52 1.38 1.45 48 -0.50 -0.70 1.67 1.73 72 -0.64 -0.81 1.91 1.96 96 -0.66 -0.87 2.25 2.23 120 -0.66 -0.91 2.70 2.77 144 -0.75 -0.97 3.28 3.24 168 -0.87 -0.98 3.95 3.75 192 -0.92 -1.00 4.45 4.29 216 -1.08 -1.03 5.01 4.92 240 -1.05 -1.23 5.05 5.24 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.06 1.10 1.09 48 0.17 0.15 1.32 1.31 72 0.26 0.23 1.60 1.54 96 0.28 0.29 1.92 1.85 120 0.38 0.30 2.44 2.34 144 0.37 0.44 2.88 2.79 168 0.43 0.45 3.38 3.22 192 0.45 0.40 3.87 3.81 216 0.49 0.38 4.07 4.15 240 0.40 0.24 4.15 4.37 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 0.12 1.25 1.22 48 -0.13 -0.04 1.52 1.51 72 -0.15 -0.06 1.84 1.80 96 -0.24 -0.26 2.16 1.98 120 -0.36 -0.38 2.39 2.28 144 -0.62 -0.56 2.66 2.65 168 -0.82 -0.69 2.98 2.92 192 -1.11 -0.84 3.23 3.10 216 -1.28 -1.11 3.41 3.37 240 -1.45 -1.38 3.68 3.71 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.06 3.72 3.75 48 -0.14 -0.08 4.28 4.26 72 -0.19 -0.08 5.02 4.90 96 -0.22 -0.07 5.69 5.66 120 -0.30 -0.01 6.75 6.52 144 -0.26 0.17 7.59 7.46 168 -0.09 0.00 8.44 8.15 192 -0.23 -0.23 8.77 8.80 216 -0.29 -0.36 9.26 9.27 240 -0.50 -0.55 9.62 9.31 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.33 4.61 4.62 48 -0.60 -0.39 5.72 5.52 72 -0.56 -0.33 6.80 6.61 96 -0.53 -0.25 8.01 7.67 120 -0.47 -0.18 9.36 9.04 144 -0.48 -0.12 10.57 10.29 168 -0.30 -0.26 12.23 11.64 192 -0.70 -0.57 13.01 12.86 216 -0.59 -0.66 13.99 13.77 240 -0.56 -0.67 14.33 14.01 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.33 5.34 5.45 48 -0.76 -0.54 6.90 6.67 72 -0.90 -0.62 8.33 8.37 96 -1.01 -0.76 10.62 10.21 120 -1.09 -0.86 12.93 12.75 144 -1.45 -1.09 15.06 14.89 168 -1.60 -1.04 17.36 17.22 192 -2.00 -1.23 19.00 19.40 216 -2.14 -1.41 20.45 21.40 240 -2.16 -1.79 21.92 21.80 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 0.03 6.29 7.33 48 -0.41 0.91 9.18 11.21 72 -0.54 2.40 13.04 15.79 96 0.62 2.41 17.14 22.46 120 -0.04 3.06 23.85 29.61 144 -0.52 2.08 29.82 37.87 168 2.52 0.66 33.60 42.76 192 0.43 -1.53 37.45 48.21 216 0.99 1.68 40.58 50.44 240 -0.93 4.17 42.41 51.40 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.07 -4.92 9.92 12.44 48 -5.55 -4.20 14.46 16.85 72 -5.89 -2.50 19.11 23.55 96 -4.48 -2.40 25.21 30.96 120 -4.52 -0.21 33.16 48.33 144 -5.67 -0.73 45.85 53.32 168 -1.15 -4.28 50.96 68.00 192 -1.06 -0.90 55.87 69.81 216 -1.50 3.98 63.50 78.74 240 -4.02 2.58 66.47 82.18 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 -1.29 13.37 14.65 48 -1.41 0.88 19.64 22.37 72 -5.03 1.19 27.71 30.82 96 -4.80 -0.28 37.67 42.20 120 -6.53 -1.86 49.50 62.51 144 -8.92 -2.39 64.93 68.46 168 -7.29 -8.31 76.36 85.69 192 -7.90 -1.98 80.92 91.94 216 -7.46 3.85 93.02 105.36 240 -13.15 -4.44 94.97 112.12 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.49 1.32 1.35 48 -0.58 -0.66 1.59 1.67 72 -0.62 -0.77 1.87 1.90 96 -0.60 -0.78 2.11 2.20 120 -0.56 -0.77 2.58 2.56 144 -0.61 -0.64 2.99 3.00 168 -0.60 -0.66 3.36 3.32 192 -0.54 -0.43 3.62 3.62 216 -0.54 -0.30 4.01 3.81 240 -0.43 -0.51 4.20 4.27 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.32 0.27 1.09 1.08 48 0.35 0.36 1.32 1.28 72 0.42 0.40 1.46 1.55 96 0.42 0.43 1.73 1.79 120 0.50 0.65 2.13 2.33 144 0.43 0.46 2.31 2.61 168 0.49 0.38 2.59 3.05 192 0.54 0.71 2.83 3.04 216 0.67 0.82 3.21 3.48 240 0.50 0.55 3.16 3.62 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.10 1.20 1.38 48 -0.13 -0.09 1.64 1.74 72 -0.49 -0.38 2.05 2.03 96 -0.81 -0.59 2.59 2.40 120 -1.03 -1.01 2.90 3.16 144 -1.19 -1.18 3.41 3.42 168 -1.45 -1.29 3.67 3.87 192 -1.71 -1.55 3.90 3.92 216 -1.84 -1.78 4.10 4.26 240 -2.04 -1.96 4.13 4.09 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.16 4.09 4.07 48 -0.33 -0.16 4.71 4.66 72 -0.54 -0.10 5.39 5.11 96 -0.44 -0.19 6.00 5.95 120 -0.62 -0.04 6.92 6.87 144 -0.46 -0.24 7.57 7.73 168 -0.43 -0.21 8.56 8.20 192 -0.84 -0.07 8.86 8.66 216 -0.73 -0.34 9.17 8.44 240 -1.01 -0.47 9.66 8.83 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 0.02 4.69 4.64 48 -0.43 -0.15 5.78 5.40 72 -0.36 -0.28 6.69 6.73 96 -0.58 -0.05 7.92 8.13 120 -0.86 -0.27 9.00 9.18 144 -0.74 -0.26 10.72 10.55 168 -1.22 -0.32 11.67 11.15 192 -1.13 -0.70 12.20 11.59 216 -1.18 -0.70 12.84 12.78 240 -1.13 -0.85 13.39 12.66 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.94 5.99 5.72 48 -1.10 -1.23 7.66 7.29 72 -1.38 -1.57 9.27 8.84 96 -1.63 -1.42 11.60 11.73 120 -2.00 -1.36 13.42 13.57 144 -2.01 -1.22 16.35 15.99 168 -2.43 -1.50 18.80 18.23 192 -2.66 -2.54 19.36 19.15 216 -3.24 -2.13 20.10 20.77 240 -3.14 -2.11 21.13 20.54 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.50 -4.97 9.17 11.29 48 -0.96 -3.54 9.42 11.68 72 -0.21 -3.15 10.32 12.47 96 -0.29 -3.28 11.72 13.40 120 -1.02 -4.63 13.02 14.34 144 -1.66 -5.84 14.23 15.84 168 -1.90 -7.72 15.25 17.66 192 -3.37 -10.20 16.66 19.23 216 -3.19 -9.83 17.69 20.16 240 -2.99 -9.93 18.29 20.51 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.91 -7.55 12.37 13.39 48 -6.41 -6.58 12.76 13.51 72 -6.85 -7.05 13.78 14.36 96 -8.03 -8.31 15.33 15.79 120 -9.59 -10.33 16.80 17.43 144 -11.26 -12.19 18.25 19.18 168 -12.34 -14.54 19.74 21.34 192 -14.88 -18.26 22.01 24.34 216 -14.58 -18.22 22.55 24.92 240 -15.16 -18.65 23.21 25.40 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.47 -6.83 15.97 16.09 48 -10.38 -7.41 17.94 17.40 72 -13.06 -9.49 21.21 19.28 96 -16.74 -12.85 24.99 22.07 120 -20.34 -16.02 28.29 25.20 144 -23.91 -18.73 31.89 27.80 168 -27.12 -22.02 35.15 30.88 192 -31.81 -28.19 38.85 36.05 216 -32.50 -28.70 39.71 36.59 240 -35.32 -31.02 43.05 39.73 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.52 1.19 1.23 48 -0.63 -0.55 1.28 1.30 72 -0.66 -0.54 1.33 1.34 96 -0.70 -0.58 1.38 1.37 120 -0.74 -0.56 1.46 1.40 144 -0.77 -0.61 1.53 1.44 168 -0.82 -0.63 1.61 1.52 192 -0.85 -0.63 1.70 1.58 216 -0.88 -0.66 1.76 1.65 240 -0.88 -0.68 1.88 1.75 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.43 0.99 1.02 48 0.28 0.40 1.03 1.08 72 0.21 0.39 1.02 1.10 96 0.19 0.29 1.10 1.13 120 0.14 0.30 1.15 1.15 144 0.04 0.28 1.20 1.20 168 0.00 0.25 1.28 1.24 192 -0.12 0.20 1.32 1.26 216 -0.11 0.19 1.39 1.30 240 -0.12 0.16 1.39 1.32 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 0.06 0.79 0.79 48 -0.13 0.00 0.92 0.89 72 -0.22 -0.10 1.02 0.97 96 -0.34 -0.21 1.09 1.01 120 -0.49 -0.26 1.17 1.10 144 -0.58 -0.30 1.31 1.18 168 -0.67 -0.37 1.41 1.24 192 -0.88 -0.57 1.56 1.33 216 -1.01 -0.67 1.67 1.43 240 -1.16 -0.80 1.77 1.48 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.01 4.28 4.35 48 -0.17 -0.05 4.67 4.72 72 -0.25 -0.17 5.13 4.90 96 -0.37 -0.27 5.38 5.17 120 -0.46 -0.44 5.76 5.39 144 -0.55 -0.36 5.99 5.72 168 -0.59 -0.55 6.16 6.00 192 -0.65 -0.66 6.62 6.27 216 -0.49 -0.59 6.91 6.54 240 -0.43 -0.48 7.11 6.80 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.70 4.27 4.32 48 -0.73 -0.78 4.74 4.67 72 -0.73 -0.78 5.15 5.10 96 -0.71 -0.71 5.56 5.46 120 -0.64 -0.67 5.90 5.86 144 -0.72 -0.77 6.22 6.21 168 -0.63 -0.71 6.79 6.70 192 -0.57 -0.84 7.24 7.04 216 -0.43 -0.65 7.72 7.52 240 -0.30 -0.52 7.92 7.99 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.57 5.69 5.81 48 -0.50 -0.58 6.62 6.68 72 -0.58 -0.59 7.21 7.44 96 -0.59 -0.82 7.76 8.26 120 -0.77 -0.94 8.58 9.05 144 -0.90 -0.95 9.43 10.01 168 -0.90 -0.87 10.75 10.80 192 -1.00 -0.95 11.11 11.34 216 -1.27 -0.94 11.13 11.77 240 -1.46 -1.01 11.28 12.30 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.79 -1.19 9.40 9.41 48 -1.66 -1.90 14.25 13.88 72 -1.57 -1.79 20.58 20.26 96 -0.91 -1.34 29.87 28.43 120 -2.20 -1.64 39.61 37.76 144 -1.12 -3.22 47.09 48.60 168 -1.31 -3.87 58.50 57.73 192 -2.37 -3.36 66.95 66.02 216 -2.51 -1.35 72.46 71.89 240 -0.43 -0.98 75.29 75.05 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.27 -1.31 12.39 12.56 48 -0.86 -1.98 18.92 19.05 72 -0.13 -1.12 29.82 28.37 96 1.08 -0.49 43.18 39.09 120 0.13 -0.26 57.54 55.35 144 1.01 -1.17 73.53 72.23 168 1.16 -0.98 89.56 86.64 192 1.16 -1.58 101.87 97.72 216 0.88 0.18 111.21 106.85 240 2.54 -2.20 120.13 117.83 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.96 2.94 18.66 17.44 48 6.08 4.29 28.91 27.68 72 8.66 5.86 43.35 42.07 96 8.33 6.94 64.56 58.64 120 7.35 7.04 88.43 84.37 144 6.76 6.17 111.34 107.62 168 6.13 4.25 134.66 128.50 192 4.25 0.29 151.34 146.18 216 2.37 0.89 167.11 160.59 240 0.91 -5.93 183.51 178.98 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.24 1.38 1.40 48 -0.20 -0.32 1.66 1.65 72 -0.24 -0.32 2.02 2.00 96 -0.24 -0.38 2.45 2.35 120 -0.27 -0.35 2.95 2.90 144 -0.32 -0.40 3.61 3.48 168 -0.28 -0.35 4.14 4.01 192 -0.18 -0.37 4.60 4.52 216 -0.15 -0.42 4.98 4.89 240 -0.13 -0.59 5.43 5.42 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.21 1.08 1.07 48 0.35 0.33 1.49 1.45 72 0.45 0.42 1.95 1.89 96 0.54 0.49 2.52 2.39 120 0.53 0.52 3.09 3.10 144 0.53 0.57 3.69 3.69 168 0.54 0.57 4.15 4.12 192 0.56 0.46 4.53 4.49 216 0.53 0.46 4.91 4.80 240 0.45 0.24 5.23 5.24 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.19 1.29 1.26 48 0.07 0.01 1.62 1.66 72 -0.12 -0.16 2.07 2.06 96 -0.35 -0.39 2.51 2.43 120 -0.44 -0.51 2.80 2.84 144 -0.61 -0.63 3.13 3.15 168 -0.73 -0.79 3.36 3.42 192 -0.93 -0.96 3.61 3.66 216 -1.19 -1.25 3.79 3.80 240 -1.35 -1.44 3.96 4.08 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.34 4.05 3.95 48 -0.27 -0.24 4.82 4.77 72 -0.25 -0.18 5.93 5.80 96 -0.37 -0.27 6.97 6.77 120 -0.29 -0.26 8.20 8.20 144 -0.35 -0.23 9.00 9.21 168 -0.39 -0.37 10.13 10.22 192 -0.73 -0.67 10.62 10.77 216 -0.90 -0.92 11.11 11.19 240 -1.07 -0.84 11.48 11.60 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.50 4.71 4.65 48 -0.63 -0.47 6.28 5.99 72 -0.67 -0.49 7.71 7.72 96 -0.64 -0.50 9.57 9.22 120 -0.57 -0.47 11.69 11.26 144 -0.63 -0.61 12.84 12.82 168 -0.85 -0.67 14.72 14.81 192 -1.22 -1.07 15.79 15.76 216 -1.51 -1.36 16.88 16.65 240 -1.67 -1.14 18.00 17.78 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.45 6.04 6.01 48 -0.53 -0.48 8.55 8.47 72 -0.83 -0.63 11.38 11.29 96 -0.85 -0.68 14.42 14.30 120 -0.89 -0.63 17.74 17.90 144 -1.00 -1.06 20.94 20.63 168 -1.28 -1.03 23.84 24.11 192 -1.82 -1.66 24.99 25.54 216 -2.12 -1.87 26.95 27.13 240 -2.25 -2.02 29.27 28.91 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 -0.35 9.24 10.09 48 -0.29 -0.60 12.58 14.09 72 -0.65 -0.86 17.89 19.16 96 -0.16 -2.70 24.87 23.84 120 -1.32 -2.09 30.54 31.05 144 -2.20 -1.31 36.17 37.22 168 -2.10 -4.62 41.63 44.73 192 -3.37 -7.75 47.21 51.93 216 -2.16 -4.22 50.53 53.59 240 -0.01 -5.18 54.64 57.88 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.64 -3.32 12.98 14.10 48 -3.33 -3.42 17.73 19.17 72 -3.86 -3.02 24.47 26.16 96 -3.53 -5.56 35.01 35.05 120 -3.58 -4.60 42.34 46.24 144 -4.88 -3.84 52.10 52.46 168 -3.97 -8.15 59.30 62.03 192 -5.40 -13.30 67.38 70.82 216 -5.28 -7.65 76.21 75.61 240 -2.13 -10.00 81.37 81.89 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.12 1.59 17.45 18.04 48 1.15 2.72 24.40 27.74 72 -0.56 3.57 33.84 37.26 96 -0.74 1.63 49.15 49.25 120 -0.56 2.44 63.31 61.33 144 -2.37 2.99 71.96 69.40 168 -1.46 -5.00 84.79 85.47 192 -4.69 -10.39 94.85 97.18 216 -6.02 -5.40 110.32 107.68 240 -6.51 -8.28 114.59 120.34 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.49 1.58 1.69 48 -0.54 -0.58 1.88 1.96 72 -0.60 -0.68 2.24 2.21 96 -0.68 -0.70 2.48 2.56 120 -0.70 -0.67 2.92 2.90 144 -0.77 -0.66 3.42 3.24 168 -0.72 -0.71 3.85 3.69 192 -0.95 -0.80 4.17 4.04 216 -0.93 -0.98 4.54 4.50 240 -0.87 -0.95 4.74 4.80 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.25 1.13 1.13 48 0.29 0.31 1.37 1.43 72 0.38 0.40 1.59 1.73 96 0.39 0.42 2.05 2.01 120 0.46 0.46 2.35 2.41 144 0.47 0.39 2.53 2.66 168 0.52 0.28 2.79 3.00 192 0.58 0.33 3.14 3.11 216 0.56 0.40 3.53 3.46 240 0.42 0.27 3.62 3.76 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.21 1.33 1.34 48 -0.14 0.08 1.72 1.65 72 -0.38 -0.08 2.07 1.93 96 -0.64 -0.06 2.62 2.23 120 -0.74 -0.28 2.91 2.75 144 -0.81 -0.25 3.33 2.77 168 -0.95 -0.30 3.63 3.22 192 -1.22 -0.45 3.86 3.51 216 -1.30 -0.41 4.09 3.71 240 -1.48 -0.45 4.10 3.80 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.32 4.63 4.87 48 -0.29 -0.26 5.39 5.53 72 -0.41 -0.24 6.14 6.30 96 -0.25 -0.29 7.02 7.10 120 -0.33 -0.06 7.77 8.30 144 -0.15 -0.34 8.71 9.10 168 -0.22 -0.16 9.77 9.96 192 -0.58 -0.59 10.02 10.48 216 -0.62 -0.90 10.38 10.87 240 -0.92 -1.07 10.71 11.01 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.35 5.02 5.38 48 -0.33 -0.43 6.31 6.42 72 -0.27 -0.61 7.44 7.84 96 -0.56 -0.57 8.61 8.92 120 -0.84 -0.78 9.83 10.40 144 -0.98 -1.14 11.88 11.51 168 -1.17 -1.29 12.76 12.58 192 -0.93 -1.25 13.49 13.42 216 -0.97 -1.00 14.02 14.59 240 -0.94 -0.94 14.72 14.87 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.49 6.55 6.77 48 -1.02 -1.13 8.50 8.60 72 -1.30 -1.61 10.53 10.95 96 -1.91 -1.63 13.16 13.55 120 -2.44 -2.08 15.04 15.56 144 -2.60 -1.61 17.79 17.45 168 -2.56 -1.59 20.32 20.16 192 -2.53 -1.64 21.53 21.13 216 -2.49 -0.42 22.32 23.90 240 -2.42 0.11 23.78 24.86