VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 23.6 25.1 48 -0.3 -0.3 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 32.4 33.9 72 -0.3 -0.3 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.9 40.1 41.6 96 -0.3 -0.2 2.9 2.8 0.9 0.9 48.1 49.0 120 -0.3 -0.3 3.6 3.6 0.8 0.8 55.0 56.1 144 -0.3 -0.4 4.2 4.2 0.8 0.8 60.1 61.5 168 -0.3 -0.4 4.8 4.8 0.8 0.8 64.4 66.0 192 -0.4 -0.4 5.3 5.2 0.7 0.7 67.8 69.2 216 -0.3 -0.4 5.8 5.6 0.7 0.7 70.3 71.4 240 -0.2 -0.3 6.0 6.0 0.6 0.6 72.5 73.1 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.8 -0.7 7.4 7.4 1.0 1.0 18.9 19.1 48 -1.3 -1.3 13.4 13.3 1.0 1.0 27.9 27.9 72 -1.4 -1.1 21.3 21.1 0.9 0.9 36.4 36.1 96 -1.5 -1.0 30.8 29.9 0.9 0.9 44.7 44.2 120 -1.8 -1.4 40.2 39.4 0.9 0.9 52.5 51.7 144 -1.6 -2.0 49.0 48.8 0.8 0.8 58.7 58.3 168 -1.6 -2.0 57.3 56.4 0.8 0.8 63.8 63.1 192 -1.8 -2.2 64.9 63.4 0.7 0.8 68.5 67.3 216 -1.4 -2.3 71.2 69.5 0.7 0.7 72.5 71.0 240 -0.7 -1.8 75.9 74.7 0.7 0.7 74.6 73.9 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.9 2.2 11.5 11.6 1.0 1.0 16.8 17.0 48 3.1 3.4 21.2 21.3 1.0 1.0 26.2 26.4 72 3.7 4.1 33.2 33.0 0.9 0.9 35.0 35.0 96 3.8 4.4 46.8 46.0 0.9 0.9 43.5 43.2 120 3.6 4.2 60.7 59.7 0.9 0.9 51.2 50.5 144 3.4 3.6 74.0 73.7 0.8 0.8 57.2 57.2 168 3.1 3.1 86.2 85.6 0.8 0.8 62.1 62.0 192 0.7 0.4 98.2 95.7 0.7 0.7 66.7 65.7 216 0.1 -0.6 107.2 105.0 0.7 0.7 70.2 68.8 240 -0.2 -1.1 113.8 113.1 0.6 0.7 72.0 71.4 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 48 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 72 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.2 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.8 0.8 144 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.3 0.8 0.8 168 0.2 0.1 2.5 2.5 0.7 0.7 192 0.1 0.1 2.8 2.7 0.7 0.7 216 0.1 0.1 3.0 2.9 0.6 0.6 240 0.1 0.1 3.1 3.1 0.6 0.6 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 48 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 0.1 0.2 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.1 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.8 120 0.0 0.1 2.6 2.6 0.8 0.8 144 -0.1 0.0 2.9 2.9 0.7 0.7 168 -0.1 -0.1 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 192 -0.3 -0.3 3.3 3.3 0.7 0.7 216 -0.5 -0.4 3.5 3.4 0.6 0.6 240 -0.5 -0.5 3.6 3.5 0.6 0.6 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.2 3.2 48 -0.1 -0.2 4.7 4.7 72 -0.2 -0.2 5.9 5.9 96 -0.2 -0.3 7.3 7.2 120 -0.3 -0.3 8.6 8.5 144 -0.4 -0.3 9.6 9.7 168 -0.4 -0.4 10.5 10.5 192 -0.6 -0.5 11.3 11.2 216 -0.6 -0.6 11.9 11.9 240 -0.6 -0.6 12.4 12.3 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 5.1 5.1 48 -0.3 -0.3 7.6 7.6 72 -0.4 -0.5 10.0 9.9 96 -0.6 -0.6 12.3 12.2 120 -0.7 -0.7 14.5 14.3 144 -0.8 -0.7 16.3 16.4 168 -0.9 -0.8 17.8 17.9 192 -1.0 -0.9 19.2 19.0 216 -1.1 -1.0 20.3 20.0 240 -1.0 -1.0 21.0 20.7 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 4.4 4.4 0.8 0.9 32.2 32.0 48 -0.1 0.1 7.0 6.7 0.8 0.8 40.9 41.0 72 -0.2 -0.2 8.2 8.0 0.8 0.8 44.7 44.8 96 -0.7 -0.4 9.4 9.2 0.8 0.8 47.5 47.4 120 -1.2 -0.8 10.8 10.3 0.7 0.7 50.0 49.9 144 -1.5 -1.3 11.4 11.2 0.7 0.7 52.3 51.7 168 -1.2 -1.1 12.3 11.8 0.6 0.7 54.3 53.8 192 -1.2 -1.1 13.3 12.7 0.6 0.6 57.9 58.6 216 -1.7 -1.8 14.4 13.8 0.5 0.6 60.5 60.9 240 -1.7 -1.9 15.2 14.7 0.5 0.5 62.5 62.2 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.9 -1.1 6.3 6.0 0.9 0.9 33.8 33.8 48 -3.0 -3.2 9.8 9.6 0.9 0.9 43.5 43.4 72 -5.6 -5.7 12.6 12.3 0.9 0.9 48.1 48.2 96 -8.0 -7.9 15.5 15.1 0.8 0.9 51.8 51.7 120 -10.1 -10.1 17.8 17.7 0.8 0.8 54.3 54.8 144 -12.4 -12.4 20.0 20.0 0.8 0.8 57.2 57.6 168 -14.6 -14.5 22.4 22.3 0.8 0.8 59.7 60.0 192 -18.3 -18.3 26.3 26.2 0.7 0.7 62.9 62.8 216 -19.9 -20.2 28.7 28.8 0.7 0.7 65.4 65.3 240 -21.3 -21.8 31.0 31.0 0.7 0.7 67.5 67.3 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 48 -0.2 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 72 -0.2 -0.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 96 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 120 -0.3 -0.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 144 -0.3 -0.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 168 -0.3 -0.3 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.7 192 -0.4 -0.3 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 216 -0.4 -0.3 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 240 -0.4 -0.4 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 -0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 -0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 96 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 120 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 144 -0.2 -0.3 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 168 -0.3 -0.3 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 192 -0.5 -0.5 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.6 216 -0.6 -0.7 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.5 240 -0.7 -0.8 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.5 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.0 2.3 2.3 48 0.0 0.0 3.3 3.2 72 -0.1 -0.1 3.8 3.7 96 -0.2 -0.3 4.2 4.1 120 -0.3 -0.4 4.5 4.4 144 -0.4 -0.5 4.9 4.7 168 -0.5 -0.6 5.2 5.0 192 -0.5 -0.6 5.5 5.4 216 -0.5 -0.5 5.8 5.7 240 -0.6 -0.7 6.1 5.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.3 4.4 4.4 48 -0.5 -0.7 6.2 6.2 72 -0.7 -0.8 7.2 7.2 96 -0.8 -0.9 7.9 7.9 120 -0.9 -1.0 8.6 8.6 144 -0.8 -0.9 9.3 9.4 168 -0.8 -0.9 10.0 9.9 192 -0.7 -0.8 10.6 10.5 216 -0.6 -0.7 11.3 11.2 240 -0.5 -0.6 11.9 11.9 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 20.1 20.2 48 0.1 0.1 2.5 2.5 1.0 1.0 29.0 29.1 72 0.1 0.1 3.8 3.8 1.0 1.0 37.9 38.0 96 0.2 0.1 5.3 5.4 0.9 0.9 46.6 46.9 120 0.3 0.2 7.1 7.1 0.9 0.9 54.8 54.7 144 0.4 0.3 8.6 8.6 0.8 0.8 61.0 61.6 168 0.3 0.4 10.0 10.0 0.8 0.8 66.4 67.3 192 0.4 0.4 11.2 11.2 0.7 0.7 70.4 71.5 216 0.4 0.5 12.1 12.3 0.7 0.7 73.5 74.9 240 0.2 0.4 13.3 13.3 0.6 0.6 77.5 77.4 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.5 -2.6 12.2 12.4 1.0 1.0 14.1 14.1 48 -4.2 -4.4 22.6 22.9 1.0 1.0 21.5 21.6 72 -5.0 -5.6 36.7 36.5 1.0 1.0 29.1 29.1 96 -5.4 -6.1 53.3 52.8 0.9 0.9 36.6 36.4 120 -5.5 -6.1 72.1 71.2 0.9 0.9 44.0 43.7 144 -6.1 -6.1 88.3 87.8 0.9 0.9 49.7 49.5 168 -7.6 -7.1 104.7 103.7 0.8 0.8 55.0 55.1 192 -9.1 -8.6 119.2 120.1 0.8 0.7 59.2 59.7 216 -10.3 -9.9 129.4 134.2 0.7 0.7 62.0 63.0 240 -12.6 -12.6 142.6 144.6 0.6 0.6 65.7 65.5 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.8 -1.0 14.7 15.1 1.0 1.0 10.9 11.0 48 -1.2 -1.2 27.7 27.9 1.0 1.0 16.9 16.9 72 -2.0 -2.3 45.4 45.1 1.0 1.0 23.4 23.3 96 -3.1 -3.3 67.8 66.1 0.9 0.9 30.6 30.0 120 -4.5 -4.4 92.3 90.5 0.9 0.9 37.4 37.0 144 -6.8 -6.4 112.6 112.8 0.9 0.9 42.6 42.6 168 -10.1 -9.5 135.2 134.2 0.8 0.8 47.8 47.9 192 -14.8 -14.5 156.3 157.1 0.8 0.8 51.9 52.4 216 -18.4 -18.0 170.8 177.3 0.7 0.7 54.9 55.8 240 -22.5 -22.6 188.8 191.9 0.6 0.6 58.4 58.4 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 72 0.1 0.1 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.2 2.4 2.4 0.9 0.9 120 0.1 0.2 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.8 144 0.1 0.1 3.5 3.5 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.0 3.9 3.9 0.8 0.8 192 -0.1 -0.1 4.4 4.4 0.7 0.7 216 -0.2 -0.2 4.7 4.7 0.7 0.7 240 -0.3 -0.3 4.9 5.1 0.6 0.6 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 -0.1 -0.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 -0.2 -0.2 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 96 -0.3 -0.3 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.9 120 -0.4 -0.4 2.8 2.7 0.8 0.8 144 -0.6 -0.6 3.1 3.1 0.8 0.8 168 -0.6 -0.7 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.7 192 -0.8 -0.8 3.7 3.6 0.7 0.7 216 -1.0 -0.9 3.9 3.9 0.7 0.7 240 -1.1 -1.1 4.1 4.1 0.6 0.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.3 48 0.0 0.0 6.5 6.5 72 0.0 0.0 8.7 8.7 96 -0.1 -0.1 10.9 10.9 120 -0.2 -0.1 13.1 13.0 144 -0.2 -0.2 14.9 14.8 168 -0.3 -0.3 16.6 16.6 192 -0.5 -0.5 17.9 18.1 216 -0.6 -0.5 18.9 19.2 240 -0.6 -0.5 20.2 20.2 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 5.2 5.2 48 0.1 0.0 8.0 8.0 72 -0.1 -0.1 11.0 10.9 96 -0.2 -0.1 14.3 14.1 120 -0.3 -0.3 17.6 17.4 144 -0.4 -0.4 20.3 20.2 168 -0.3 -0.5 22.9 22.9 192 -0.5 -0.6 25.2 25.4 216 -0.6 -0.5 26.9 27.4 240 -0.5 -0.4 28.9 28.8 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.24 -0.96 8.44 8.02 48 -0.80 -1.56 12.19 10.99 72 -0.81 -1.64 16.14 14.61 96 -1.40 -1.66 20.37 19.76 120 -1.78 -0.39 26.47 25.36 144 -1.20 -0.40 31.11 29.54 168 -0.40 -0.72 35.92 35.46 192 -1.78 -1.37 39.05 36.37 216 -3.72 -3.94 40.50 38.56 240 0.02 -1.98 40.93 42.81 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.38 0.67 9.46 9.23 48 2.79 1.00 13.58 13.11 72 3.64 1.88 19.34 17.88 96 3.14 2.91 24.78 25.15 120 4.15 4.62 33.50 33.11 144 5.02 4.91 42.45 39.26 168 7.00 5.20 48.37 46.43 192 6.51 5.34 53.69 51.43 216 6.43 4.73 59.04 56.34 240 11.97 8.68 62.35 62.99 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.80 5.85 15.33 15.40 48 5.79 7.24 23.31 23.40 72 5.91 7.40 34.02 32.19 96 4.66 8.93 42.54 43.22 120 7.67 10.79 54.78 54.15 144 10.33 11.97 68.30 63.76 168 13.03 12.16 78.27 75.58 192 12.27 10.27 85.03 84.86 216 13.43 12.52 99.31 94.70 240 22.18 19.13 105.56 105.93 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 -0.07 1.49 1.36 48 0.28 -0.08 1.77 1.64 72 0.36 -0.09 2.02 1.85 96 0.30 -0.07 2.29 2.15 120 0.37 -0.02 2.67 2.51 144 0.30 -0.04 3.04 2.89 168 0.27 -0.09 3.32 3.32 192 0.52 0.09 3.62 3.60 216 0.67 0.07 4.01 3.97 240 0.63 0.18 4.11 4.24 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.28 0.91 0.97 48 0.24 0.38 1.13 1.19 72 0.23 0.40 1.35 1.39 96 0.22 0.45 1.56 1.61 120 0.33 0.48 1.81 1.81 144 0.43 0.47 2.11 2.00 168 0.48 0.49 2.28 2.24 192 0.55 0.49 2.40 2.39 216 0.68 0.69 2.75 2.67 240 0.79 0.84 2.94 2.86 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.43 0.44 1.21 1.17 48 0.39 0.44 1.47 1.44 72 0.24 0.33 1.71 1.64 96 0.14 0.28 1.89 1.82 120 0.18 0.23 2.11 2.04 144 0.17 0.29 2.23 2.16 168 0.25 0.27 2.45 2.33 192 0.07 0.10 2.47 2.38 216 0.14 0.17 2.67 2.61 240 0.24 0.26 2.82 2.75 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.15 3.82 4.12 48 -0.03 -0.10 4.40 4.88 72 -0.09 -0.14 5.37 5.58 96 -0.24 -0.24 6.06 6.34 120 -0.16 -0.19 6.73 7.04 144 -0.12 -0.37 7.43 7.46 168 -0.11 -0.37 7.90 8.16 192 -0.35 -0.64 8.11 8.12 216 -0.24 -0.62 8.34 8.54 240 -0.36 -0.82 8.59 8.89 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.19 4.60 4.45 48 -0.26 -0.10 5.54 5.54 72 -0.25 -0.10 6.47 6.26 96 -0.57 -0.36 7.19 7.37 120 -0.76 -0.56 8.34 8.22 144 -0.85 -0.51 9.22 8.99 168 -0.90 -0.71 10.06 10.00 192 -1.31 -1.07 10.56 10.44 216 -1.28 -1.25 11.48 11.34 240 -1.42 -1.51 11.87 11.68 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.78 6.92 6.78 48 -0.85 -1.02 8.97 8.92 72 -1.45 -1.37 11.89 11.14 96 -2.15 -1.90 13.07 12.97 120 -2.59 -2.48 15.19 14.81 144 -2.79 -2.62 16.92 16.11 168 -2.87 -2.59 18.75 18.07 192 -3.35 -3.31 19.85 19.26 216 -3.57 -3.63 21.82 20.94 240 -3.57 -3.75 22.56 21.85 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.36 -1.61 8.35 7.60 48 -3.63 -1.82 10.31 9.91 72 -3.96 -0.67 13.76 13.26 96 -2.69 0.54 18.42 18.64 120 -5.96 1.25 24.73 24.56 144 -5.16 1.03 29.87 29.54 168 -0.41 1.76 36.67 33.12 192 3.48 0.64 41.22 36.07 216 7.80 5.30 46.78 44.26 240 8.63 2.83 51.78 49.76 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.90 1.31 10.65 10.61 48 0.07 3.32 14.73 14.86 72 1.60 7.59 20.28 21.01 96 3.88 9.00 28.14 28.55 120 1.23 9.86 34.30 38.64 144 1.93 11.51 45.18 47.65 168 5.19 12.86 57.09 53.13 192 12.66 7.65 66.34 56.59 216 15.06 13.45 74.06 69.00 240 8.14 10.58 82.61 80.26 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.71 10.76 17.21 19.41 48 11.40 17.80 26.22 29.03 72 17.16 25.69 35.73 40.84 96 22.88 28.75 49.61 52.79 120 20.08 27.63 57.14 65.69 144 20.20 33.97 72.27 83.00 168 21.10 35.33 94.68 92.61 192 28.37 31.81 110.55 102.73 216 32.04 32.04 122.87 112.58 240 18.51 27.67 131.04 132.56 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.30 1.07 1.14 48 0.12 0.42 1.24 1.36 72 0.22 0.49 1.42 1.60 96 0.29 0.54 1.75 1.88 120 0.32 0.56 2.03 2.32 144 0.25 0.69 2.54 2.75 168 0.28 0.76 3.00 3.08 192 0.51 0.75 3.51 3.33 216 0.37 0.67 3.76 3.46 240 0.13 0.61 4.04 3.81 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.35 0.93 0.96 48 0.47 0.55 1.22 1.20 72 0.64 0.76 1.40 1.57 96 0.79 0.81 1.80 1.81 120 0.79 0.81 2.02 2.10 144 0.76 0.95 2.35 2.46 168 0.62 0.87 2.79 2.72 192 0.74 0.67 3.12 2.91 216 0.73 0.75 3.23 3.14 240 0.51 0.71 3.38 3.46 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.47 0.53 1.29 1.22 48 0.49 0.63 1.57 1.63 72 0.62 0.69 1.96 1.90 96 0.73 0.75 2.28 2.21 120 0.71 0.79 2.52 2.46 144 0.67 0.80 2.72 2.78 168 0.59 0.77 3.05 2.97 192 0.65 0.73 3.33 3.16 216 0.66 0.68 3.58 3.36 240 0.49 0.57 3.66 3.54 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.25 3.64 3.43 48 -0.19 -0.32 4.33 3.92 72 -0.19 -0.26 4.89 4.60 96 -0.23 -0.28 5.57 5.02 120 -0.16 -0.60 6.22 5.98 144 -0.38 -0.70 7.17 6.37 168 -0.70 -0.67 7.73 7.08 192 -0.77 -1.04 8.32 7.40 216 -1.04 -1.11 8.46 7.79 240 -1.25 -1.07 9.01 8.45 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.22 4.05 3.88 48 -0.04 -0.18 5.05 4.74 72 0.01 -0.08 5.79 5.84 96 0.06 0.04 7.01 6.81 120 0.11 -0.24 8.02 8.50 144 0.02 -0.15 9.42 9.49 168 0.14 -0.41 10.62 10.28 192 -0.30 -0.72 11.66 10.92 216 -0.78 -0.77 12.26 11.87 240 -1.06 -1.04 13.58 12.94 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.32 6.38 5.64 48 -0.59 -0.32 8.15 7.58 72 -0.53 -0.11 10.25 9.50 96 -0.68 -0.43 12.60 11.90 120 -0.68 -0.73 14.34 14.06 144 -0.52 -0.67 16.61 16.56 168 -0.36 -1.14 19.64 18.29 192 -0.65 -0.71 21.07 19.15 216 -0.49 -0.73 21.83 20.39 240 -0.37 -0.62 23.50 22.55 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.86 -2.49 10.23 10.13 48 -4.43 -1.61 13.83 13.07 72 -3.75 -1.11 18.57 17.10 96 -2.71 -1.66 23.74 22.26 120 -1.89 -1.16 27.86 26.78 144 -1.00 0.43 32.03 30.37 168 -2.13 2.44 34.73 32.72 192 -3.44 1.38 36.49 33.25 216 -3.97 1.59 38.87 36.76 240 -1.89 1.44 40.53 38.14 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.29 -1.28 13.99 13.17 48 -3.23 0.57 17.51 16.34 72 -1.85 1.44 22.44 21.73 96 -1.39 0.45 28.84 28.88 120 0.23 0.81 36.01 33.70 144 -0.08 1.76 41.90 41.71 168 -0.04 3.07 46.21 45.33 192 0.04 2.87 49.05 47.16 216 0.49 4.22 51.92 50.05 240 1.28 3.91 53.16 53.24 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.29 0.58 20.46 19.07 48 -1.12 4.40 27.00 26.45 72 -1.28 3.82 34.64 33.67 96 -1.11 -0.01 44.12 44.35 120 0.15 -1.07 54.80 54.34 144 -0.93 -0.98 65.27 66.49 168 -0.99 1.52 75.01 74.78 192 -1.30 -0.08 81.65 79.16 216 -0.38 -0.41 86.11 82.12 240 -1.23 -0.98 90.11 84.16 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.10 1.48 1.61 48 0.16 0.22 1.78 1.93 72 0.22 0.32 2.09 2.27 96 0.24 0.39 2.42 2.66 120 0.29 0.41 2.75 3.01 144 0.35 0.46 3.02 3.34 168 0.34 0.48 3.33 3.59 192 0.63 0.61 3.45 3.71 216 0.73 0.67 3.60 3.91 240 0.71 0.76 3.83 4.06 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.18 1.11 1.13 48 0.17 0.20 1.33 1.34 72 0.11 0.13 1.49 1.52 96 0.10 0.03 1.64 1.74 120 0.10 -0.02 1.85 1.89 144 0.04 -0.08 2.08 2.11 168 0.06 -0.04 2.25 2.34 192 0.08 -0.06 2.39 2.43 216 0.08 -0.04 2.46 2.50 240 0.03 -0.11 2.63 2.51 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.37 1.44 1.43 48 0.33 0.54 1.73 1.73 72 0.19 0.48 1.96 1.90 96 0.15 0.35 2.12 2.12 120 0.01 0.18 2.36 2.24 144 -0.01 0.18 2.49 2.54 168 -0.07 0.19 2.75 2.82 192 -0.27 -0.08 2.95 2.89 216 -0.26 -0.13 2.97 2.95 240 -0.32 -0.31 3.11 3.02 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.09 4.21 4.21 48 -0.22 -0.19 5.20 5.00 72 -0.35 -0.23 6.09 5.82 96 -0.20 -0.22 7.02 6.81 120 -0.29 -0.05 7.63 7.59 144 -0.32 -0.06 8.14 8.15 168 -0.25 0.01 8.56 8.46 192 -0.48 -0.35 8.51 8.24 216 -0.35 -0.14 8.90 8.56 240 -0.44 -0.28 9.10 8.73 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.41 4.67 4.76 48 -0.67 -0.57 5.72 5.91 72 -0.89 -0.71 6.78 6.83 96 -1.03 -0.90 7.73 8.09 120 -0.98 -0.82 8.80 8.79 144 -1.11 -0.91 9.50 9.73 168 -1.06 -1.13 9.90 10.17 192 -1.40 -1.47 9.98 10.20 216 -1.32 -1.40 10.60 10.59 240 -1.30 -1.37 11.05 10.92 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.15 7.33 7.75 48 -0.45 -0.25 9.57 10.10 72 -0.72 -0.59 11.54 11.59 96 -1.04 -0.80 13.49 13.52 120 -1.33 -0.79 14.91 14.92 144 -1.54 -0.96 16.33 16.68 168 -1.47 -1.13 17.19 17.79 192 -1.65 -1.28 17.63 18.02 216 -1.54 -1.51 18.54 18.23 240 -1.32 -1.42 19.34 18.80 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 0.75 7.16 7.49 48 1.42 3.80 9.89 12.81 72 2.87 4.83 15.25 20.34 96 4.60 7.25 24.32 28.17 120 7.52 10.67 32.95 44.35 144 7.81 11.19 38.68 51.96 168 10.48 10.83 45.36 58.13 192 9.12 8.66 48.79 67.71 216 10.76 13.17 52.67 72.08 240 13.40 13.80 55.57 81.96 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.12 -2.13 10.61 10.61 48 -3.28 -0.92 15.49 17.71 72 -2.74 -0.69 23.64 27.91 96 -1.61 0.11 34.55 40.45 120 -0.75 5.20 46.16 59.61 144 -0.45 6.29 55.33 70.22 168 3.26 7.90 65.06 78.82 192 0.67 3.43 71.88 89.42 216 1.62 4.92 77.00 98.24 240 8.49 1.64 80.19 107.98 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.78 1.99 13.95 15.96 48 1.54 3.52 21.16 23.40 72 -2.67 -2.26 33.19 37.88 96 -6.52 -4.46 49.53 54.91 120 -7.88 -0.19 65.96 75.44 144 -10.77 -1.29 79.52 96.04 168 -10.63 -2.75 90.88 104.38 192 -17.01 -8.05 105.14 118.94 216 -16.54 -10.81 114.29 133.16 240 -12.76 -18.29 121.53 152.59 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.28 1.25 1.25 48 -0.26 -0.37 1.44 1.43 72 -0.37 -0.43 1.66 1.78 96 -0.46 -0.62 1.95 2.03 120 -0.61 -0.66 2.28 2.48 144 -0.53 -0.55 2.62 2.51 168 -0.31 -0.39 2.75 2.96 192 -0.31 -0.33 2.78 2.92 216 -0.22 -0.34 3.20 3.14 240 -0.19 -0.79 3.17 3.47 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.11 1.16 1.00 48 0.30 0.17 1.41 1.20 72 0.30 0.12 1.71 1.65 96 0.27 -0.03 2.04 2.19 120 0.21 0.30 2.38 2.39 144 0.13 0.09 2.61 2.75 168 -0.01 0.17 2.78 3.05 192 -0.21 -0.05 3.16 3.19 216 -0.22 -0.35 3.32 3.44 240 -0.15 -0.57 3.49 3.80 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.12 1.15 1.27 48 0.03 0.04 1.39 1.60 72 -0.25 -0.28 1.78 1.97 96 -0.57 -0.46 2.23 2.50 120 -0.75 -0.86 2.56 2.70 144 -0.97 -0.99 3.13 3.04 168 -1.20 -1.29 3.37 3.50 192 -1.38 -1.08 3.66 3.76 216 -1.41 -1.20 3.68 4.12 240 -1.79 -1.49 4.00 3.96 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.10 4.12 3.81 48 -0.42 -0.09 4.69 4.57 72 -0.34 -0.22 5.48 5.48 96 -0.63 -0.09 6.69 6.09 120 -0.67 -0.06 7.48 7.59 144 -0.34 -0.20 8.39 8.35 168 -0.67 -0.47 8.94 9.16 192 -0.69 -0.59 9.46 9.82 216 -0.62 -0.35 10.35 10.43 240 -0.36 -0.74 11.14 11.48 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.75 5.08 4.86 48 -0.66 -0.89 6.19 6.15 72 -0.72 -0.89 7.51 7.48 96 -0.82 -1.00 9.38 9.20 120 -0.97 -1.13 10.93 10.84 144 -0.67 -1.23 12.45 12.35 168 -1.11 -1.21 13.84 14.16 192 -1.13 -1.50 14.29 14.63 216 -1.45 -1.41 15.73 15.70 240 -1.70 -2.03 16.51 16.17 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.49 5.81 5.64 48 -0.96 -0.81 7.34 7.23 72 -1.38 -0.95 9.86 9.34 96 -1.31 -1.04 12.67 11.73 120 -1.55 -1.18 15.28 14.03 144 -1.53 -1.74 17.57 17.43 168 -1.87 -1.74 20.07 19.65 192 -2.22 -1.71 22.61 21.10 216 -2.86 -2.02 24.46 24.15 240 -3.45 -2.43 25.61 24.58 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -0.17 8.87 9.48 48 0.45 1.96 9.47 10.76 72 1.63 2.89 10.62 11.51 96 2.07 3.55 12.05 12.88 120 2.23 3.67 13.34 13.98 144 2.10 2.17 14.18 14.39 168 2.54 2.41 15.51 14.88 192 2.39 0.50 16.61 15.67 216 2.17 -0.51 17.16 16.20 240 2.51 -0.40 17.51 16.89 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.75 -4.17 13.55 13.27 48 -3.96 -2.99 13.83 13.65 72 -3.58 -2.90 15.30 14.58 96 -3.64 -2.61 16.16 15.47 120 -4.41 -3.24 17.78 16.77 144 -5.99 -5.20 18.91 17.73 168 -6.67 -6.23 20.35 18.79 192 -7.92 -8.86 21.46 20.09 216 -8.56 -9.52 21.44 20.22 240 -8.86 -10.02 21.72 21.30 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.51 -4.89 18.37 16.45 48 -4.84 -5.46 19.76 17.88 72 -6.54 -6.55 21.99 19.46 96 -8.46 -6.99 24.23 21.10 120 -11.09 -8.69 26.30 23.14 144 -14.30 -11.76 28.07 24.04 168 -17.03 -14.16 30.15 25.88 192 -21.66 -19.60 33.32 29.49 216 -23.95 -21.26 35.09 31.14 240 -25.61 -22.43 37.02 32.24 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.38 1.21 1.16 48 -0.49 -0.53 1.27 1.23 72 -0.59 -0.65 1.31 1.28 96 -0.64 -0.70 1.40 1.35 120 -0.71 -0.76 1.49 1.43 144 -0.78 -0.80 1.62 1.46 168 -0.83 -0.87 1.75 1.49 192 -0.82 -0.91 1.71 1.55 216 -0.83 -0.91 1.72 1.63 240 -0.90 -0.91 1.88 1.68 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.26 1.04 1.03 48 0.33 0.20 1.13 1.08 72 0.29 0.22 1.20 1.14 96 0.24 0.22 1.21 1.19 120 0.20 0.21 1.22 1.24 144 0.16 0.25 1.28 1.24 168 0.07 0.20 1.36 1.28 192 -0.05 0.21 1.41 1.35 216 -0.08 0.16 1.46 1.38 240 -0.06 0.19 1.48 1.43 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.11 0.93 0.92 48 0.18 0.07 1.05 1.02 72 0.16 0.06 1.15 1.09 96 0.11 0.05 1.25 1.15 120 0.02 -0.02 1.27 1.20 144 -0.11 -0.11 1.35 1.23 168 -0.23 -0.19 1.39 1.32 192 -0.46 -0.45 1.45 1.37 216 -0.62 -0.56 1.51 1.42 240 -0.73 -0.62 1.57 1.47 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.30 4.58 4.30 48 -0.31 -0.17 4.98 4.82 72 -0.56 -0.34 5.20 5.08 96 -0.62 -0.47 5.49 5.23 120 -0.77 -0.62 5.86 5.47 144 -0.84 -0.78 6.20 5.90 168 -0.87 -0.80 6.49 6.15 192 -0.98 -0.86 6.71 6.26 216 -0.83 -0.77 7.00 6.52 240 -0.79 -0.74 7.25 6.89 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.41 4.48 4.61 48 -0.49 -0.52 4.88 4.95 72 -0.50 -0.51 5.34 5.36 96 -0.42 -0.51 5.84 5.76 120 -0.34 -0.55 6.22 6.20 144 -0.23 -0.46 6.79 6.66 168 -0.20 -0.47 6.92 6.96 192 -0.24 -0.59 7.31 7.22 216 -0.26 -0.47 7.92 7.44 240 -0.09 -0.44 8.21 7.98 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.39 6.20 6.35 48 -0.45 -0.60 6.93 7.22 72 -0.67 -0.65 7.60 7.88 96 -0.61 -0.84 8.14 8.29 120 -0.77 -0.97 8.50 8.69 144 -0.81 -0.98 9.20 9.32 168 -0.74 -1.11 9.89 9.82 192 -0.80 -1.16 10.14 10.18 216 -0.89 -1.31 10.65 10.81 240 -0.94 -1.14 11.27 11.72 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.47 -1.92 9.16 8.97 48 -3.01 -2.41 12.75 12.30 72 -3.03 -2.18 17.66 17.04 96 -2.96 -1.91 23.56 22.88 120 -3.58 -2.09 29.97 29.60 144 -3.47 -1.99 36.40 35.75 168 -2.84 -2.91 42.04 40.62 192 -3.33 -3.35 46.24 44.64 216 -3.63 -3.86 51.02 49.17 240 -2.35 -4.54 53.99 53.99 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.24 12.00 11.65 48 -0.21 0.38 16.67 16.56 72 0.35 1.33 23.18 23.01 96 0.91 1.83 31.68 31.55 120 0.40 2.09 41.71 41.45 144 0.88 2.43 51.52 51.41 168 1.28 1.88 60.85 58.86 192 1.47 1.09 69.79 66.10 216 1.08 0.40 78.06 73.95 240 2.38 0.17 82.37 82.58 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.05 5.90 18.20 18.65 48 7.07 9.00 26.91 27.81 72 8.14 10.48 37.47 38.37 96 8.92 11.01 49.99 51.48 120 9.19 11.41 64.89 65.16 144 8.89 11.61 77.31 79.61 168 8.10 9.93 93.45 91.67 192 7.60 7.89 107.46 103.23 216 6.56 6.43 119.88 113.83 240 4.84 5.88 126.09 127.64 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 -0.02 1.34 1.33 48 0.09 0.03 1.62 1.60 72 0.12 0.05 1.89 1.91 96 0.12 0.07 2.23 2.24 120 0.15 0.10 2.65 2.70 144 0.11 0.12 3.06 3.11 168 0.12 0.07 3.43 3.51 192 0.27 0.18 3.82 3.77 216 0.28 0.19 4.10 4.04 240 0.23 0.18 4.31 4.29 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.26 1.01 1.02 48 0.30 0.36 1.26 1.30 72 0.33 0.40 1.51 1.56 96 0.36 0.42 1.83 1.86 120 0.39 0.42 2.18 2.16 144 0.40 0.40 2.42 2.45 168 0.35 0.35 2.76 2.70 192 0.34 0.33 3.01 2.92 216 0.37 0.36 3.24 3.15 240 0.35 0.38 3.35 3.38 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.44 0.44 1.38 1.32 48 0.47 0.54 1.75 1.74 72 0.40 0.47 2.07 2.02 96 0.33 0.41 2.38 2.33 120 0.28 0.39 2.69 2.65 144 0.23 0.29 2.86 2.97 168 0.13 0.21 3.16 3.13 192 -0.06 -0.02 3.31 3.28 216 -0.03 -0.04 3.49 3.36 240 -0.08 -0.08 3.56 3.51 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.26 3.91 3.93 48 -0.16 -0.25 4.69 4.64 72 -0.30 -0.30 5.58 5.47 96 -0.32 -0.41 6.41 6.21 120 -0.33 -0.40 7.14 7.11 144 -0.39 -0.54 7.80 7.65 168 -0.55 -0.57 8.49 8.25 192 -0.68 -0.84 8.77 8.40 216 -0.65 -0.78 9.05 8.72 240 -0.83 -0.84 9.26 9.10 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.26 4.36 4.34 48 -0.25 -0.25 5.49 5.49 72 -0.28 -0.24 6.60 6.47 96 -0.36 -0.36 7.76 7.74 120 -0.41 -0.44 8.99 8.88 144 -0.55 -0.49 9.98 9.96 168 -0.67 -0.73 11.00 10.97 192 -0.98 -1.08 11.61 11.42 216 -1.03 -1.07 12.50 12.08 240 -1.26 -1.26 13.11 12.81 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.47 6.62 6.50 48 -0.51 -0.51 8.81 8.78 72 -0.70 -0.56 11.42 11.08 96 -1.00 -0.76 13.42 13.32 120 -1.14 -1.01 15.51 15.23 144 -1.32 -1.12 17.46 17.25 168 -1.32 -1.52 19.58 19.10 192 -1.82 -1.78 20.82 20.21 216 -1.89 -1.88 22.31 21.01 240 -1.95 -1.99 23.09 22.35 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.17 -0.70 9.97 10.64 48 2.12 1.07 13.44 14.03 72 1.96 1.52 19.26 19.36 96 3.32 0.68 29.49 26.02 120 5.33 -0.57 40.29 36.63 144 6.05 1.18 47.91 43.88 168 9.30 3.43 54.59 50.87 192 8.47 2.04 59.33 57.55 216 10.60 2.92 63.29 63.37 240 12.53 1.89 68.89 71.03 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.09 -2.77 13.36 14.21 48 -2.44 -3.31 19.55 19.77 72 -3.07 -2.33 30.59 28.01 96 -2.97 -3.24 44.76 38.58 120 -2.29 -3.61 59.08 53.77 144 -1.20 -0.22 70.83 63.18 168 2.47 2.76 79.74 72.46 192 0.82 1.19 86.01 81.95 216 2.16 1.48 92.16 91.87 240 4.05 -2.04 99.51 101.40 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.76 1.94 17.07 19.91 48 2.15 2.64 25.64 27.21 72 -0.78 2.21 40.31 38.63 96 -3.90 1.26 60.00 53.47 120 -5.10 -0.99 80.05 72.93 144 -5.70 -0.60 94.08 86.24 168 -6.22 3.21 106.71 99.26 192 -9.65 0.87 119.64 113.64 216 -8.40 1.10 129.30 126.78 240 -6.19 -2.25 139.42 141.49 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.39 1.45 1.51 48 -0.54 -0.57 1.73 1.66 72 -0.64 -0.59 2.07 1.94 96 -0.73 -0.68 2.51 2.31 120 -0.90 -0.70 2.95 2.72 144 -0.91 -0.50 3.48 3.15 168 -0.71 -0.24 3.68 3.43 192 -0.70 -0.34 3.86 3.61 216 -0.65 -0.36 4.23 4.15 240 -0.88 -0.63 4.34 4.39 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.19 1.10 1.10 48 0.20 0.20 1.42 1.33 72 0.22 0.28 1.84 1.73 96 0.23 0.32 2.28 2.20 120 0.17 0.36 2.65 2.55 144 0.17 0.33 2.93 2.84 168 0.12 0.39 3.15 3.20 192 -0.03 0.43 3.45 3.29 216 0.00 0.33 3.74 3.58 240 -0.01 0.22 3.97 3.92 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.19 1.23 1.33 48 0.02 0.16 1.49 1.53 72 -0.19 -0.03 1.91 1.91 96 -0.44 -0.10 2.38 2.30 120 -0.61 -0.30 2.69 2.57 144 -0.86 -0.38 3.20 2.76 168 -0.99 -0.58 3.52 3.11 192 -1.07 -0.57 3.65 3.29 216 -1.04 -0.45 3.68 3.56 240 -1.25 -0.36 4.11 3.52 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.31 4.41 4.39 48 -0.47 -0.37 4.91 5.04 72 -0.54 -0.40 5.99 6.22 96 -0.80 -0.30 7.21 7.08 120 -0.81 -0.21 8.05 8.25 144 -0.45 -0.40 9.24 9.00 168 -0.56 -0.49 9.78 10.11 192 -0.97 -0.78 10.56 10.58 216 -0.93 -0.75 11.08 11.25 240 -0.77 -1.14 11.73 11.95 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.56 5.23 5.23 48 -0.59 -0.82 6.46 6.69 72 -0.84 -0.92 8.04 8.40 96 -1.02 -1.07 10.11 9.76 120 -1.14 -1.03 11.79 11.67 144 -1.01 -1.35 13.30 12.98 168 -1.43 -1.49 14.76 14.76 192 -1.65 -1.68 15.31 15.96 216 -1.65 -1.59 16.63 16.87 240 -1.98 -1.66 17.60 17.55 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.53 6.39 6.55 48 -0.78 -0.61 8.39 8.35 72 -1.21 -0.83 11.07 11.19 96 -1.42 -1.05 14.13 13.57 120 -1.71 -1.40 16.64 16.25 144 -1.91 -1.79 19.17 18.87 168 -2.42 -1.99 21.71 21.37 192 -2.78 -2.07 23.76 23.26 216 -2.91 -1.77 25.62 25.92 240 -2.50 -1.17 27.12 26.85 VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 23.6 25.1 48 -0.3 -0.3 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 32.4 33.9 72 -0.3 -0.3 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.9 40.1 41.6 96 -0.3 -0.2 2.9 2.8 0.9 0.9 48.1 49.0 120 -0.3 -0.3 3.6 3.6 0.8 0.8 55.0 56.1 144 -0.3 -0.4 4.2 4.2 0.8 0.8 60.1 61.5 168 -0.3 -0.4 4.8 4.8 0.8 0.8 64.4 66.0 192 -0.4 -0.4 5.3 5.2 0.7 0.7 67.8 69.2 216 -0.3 -0.4 5.8 5.6 0.7 0.7 70.3 71.4 240 -0.2 -0.3 6.0 6.0 0.6 0.6 72.5 73.1 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.8 -0.7 7.4 7.4 1.0 1.0 18.9 19.1 48 -1.3 -1.3 13.4 13.3 1.0 1.0 27.9 27.9 72 -1.4 -1.1 21.3 21.1 0.9 0.9 36.4 36.1 96 -1.5 -1.0 30.8 29.9 0.9 0.9 44.7 44.2 120 -1.8 -1.4 40.2 39.4 0.9 0.9 52.5 51.7 144 -1.6 -2.0 49.0 48.8 0.8 0.8 58.7 58.3 168 -1.6 -2.0 57.3 56.4 0.8 0.8 63.8 63.1 192 -1.8 -2.2 64.9 63.4 0.7 0.8 68.5 67.3 216 -1.4 -2.3 71.2 69.5 0.7 0.7 72.5 71.0 240 -0.7 -1.8 75.9 74.7 0.7 0.7 74.6 73.9 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.9 2.2 11.5 11.6 1.0 1.0 16.8 17.0 48 3.1 3.4 21.2 21.3 1.0 1.0 26.2 26.4 72 3.7 4.1 33.2 33.0 0.9 0.9 35.0 35.0 96 3.8 4.4 46.8 46.0 0.9 0.9 43.5 43.2 120 3.6 4.2 60.7 59.7 0.9 0.9 51.2 50.5 144 3.4 3.6 74.0 73.7 0.8 0.8 57.2 57.2 168 3.1 3.1 86.2 85.6 0.8 0.8 62.1 62.0 192 0.7 0.4 98.2 95.7 0.7 0.7 66.7 65.7 216 0.1 -0.6 107.2 105.0 0.7 0.7 70.2 68.8 240 -0.2 -1.1 113.8 113.1 0.6 0.7 72.0 71.4 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 48 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 72 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.2 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.8 0.8 144 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.3 0.8 0.8 168 0.2 0.1 2.5 2.5 0.7 0.7 192 0.1 0.1 2.8 2.7 0.7 0.7 216 0.1 0.1 3.0 2.9 0.6 0.6 240 0.1 0.1 3.1 3.1 0.6 0.6 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 48 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 0.1 0.2 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.1 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.8 120 0.0 0.1 2.6 2.6 0.8 0.8 144 -0.1 0.0 2.9 2.9 0.7 0.7 168 -0.1 -0.1 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 192 -0.3 -0.3 3.3 3.3 0.7 0.7 216 -0.5 -0.4 3.5 3.4 0.6 0.6 240 -0.5 -0.5 3.6 3.5 0.6 0.6 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.2 3.2 48 -0.1 -0.2 4.7 4.7 72 -0.2 -0.2 5.9 5.9 96 -0.2 -0.3 7.3 7.2 120 -0.3 -0.3 8.6 8.5 144 -0.4 -0.3 9.6 9.7 168 -0.4 -0.4 10.5 10.5 192 -0.6 -0.5 11.3 11.2 216 -0.6 -0.6 11.9 11.9 240 -0.6 -0.6 12.4 12.3 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 5.1 5.1 48 -0.3 -0.3 7.6 7.6 72 -0.4 -0.5 10.0 9.9 96 -0.6 -0.6 12.3 12.2 120 -0.7 -0.7 14.5 14.3 144 -0.8 -0.7 16.3 16.4 168 -0.9 -0.8 17.8 17.9 192 -1.0 -0.9 19.2 19.0 216 -1.1 -1.0 20.3 20.0 240 -1.0 -1.0 21.0 20.7 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 4.4 4.4 0.8 0.9 32.2 32.0 48 -0.1 0.1 7.0 6.7 0.8 0.8 40.9 41.0 72 -0.2 -0.2 8.2 8.0 0.8 0.8 44.7 44.8 96 -0.7 -0.4 9.4 9.2 0.8 0.8 47.5 47.4 120 -1.2 -0.8 10.8 10.3 0.7 0.7 50.0 49.9 144 -1.5 -1.3 11.4 11.2 0.7 0.7 52.3 51.7 168 -1.2 -1.1 12.3 11.8 0.6 0.7 54.3 53.8 192 -1.2 -1.1 13.3 12.7 0.6 0.6 57.9 58.6 216 -1.7 -1.8 14.4 13.8 0.5 0.6 60.5 60.9 240 -1.7 -1.9 15.2 14.7 0.5 0.5 62.5 62.2 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.9 -1.1 6.3 6.0 0.9 0.9 33.8 33.8 48 -3.0 -3.2 9.8 9.6 0.9 0.9 43.5 43.4 72 -5.6 -5.7 12.6 12.3 0.9 0.9 48.1 48.2 96 -8.0 -7.9 15.5 15.1 0.8 0.9 51.8 51.7 120 -10.1 -10.1 17.8 17.7 0.8 0.8 54.3 54.8 144 -12.4 -12.4 20.0 20.0 0.8 0.8 57.2 57.6 168 -14.6 -14.5 22.4 22.3 0.8 0.8 59.7 60.0 192 -18.3 -18.3 26.3 26.2 0.7 0.7 62.9 62.8 216 -19.9 -20.2 28.7 28.8 0.7 0.7 65.4 65.3 240 -21.3 -21.8 31.0 31.0 0.7 0.7 67.5 67.3 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 48 -0.2 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 72 -0.2 -0.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 96 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 120 -0.3 -0.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 144 -0.3 -0.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 168 -0.3 -0.3 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.7 192 -0.4 -0.3 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 216 -0.4 -0.3 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 240 -0.4 -0.4 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 -0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 -0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 96 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 120 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 144 -0.2 -0.3 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 168 -0.3 -0.3 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 192 -0.5 -0.5 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.6 216 -0.6 -0.7 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.5 240 -0.7 -0.8 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.5 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.0 2.3 2.3 48 0.0 0.0 3.3 3.2 72 -0.1 -0.1 3.8 3.7 96 -0.2 -0.3 4.2 4.1 120 -0.3 -0.4 4.5 4.4 144 -0.4 -0.5 4.9 4.7 168 -0.5 -0.6 5.2 5.0 192 -0.5 -0.6 5.5 5.4 216 -0.5 -0.5 5.8 5.7 240 -0.6 -0.7 6.1 5.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.3 4.4 4.4 48 -0.5 -0.7 6.2 6.2 72 -0.7 -0.8 7.2 7.2 96 -0.8 -0.9 7.9 7.9 120 -0.9 -1.0 8.6 8.6 144 -0.8 -0.9 9.3 9.4 168 -0.8 -0.9 10.0 9.9 192 -0.7 -0.8 10.6 10.5 216 -0.6 -0.7 11.3 11.2 240 -0.5 -0.6 11.9 11.9 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 20.1 20.2 48 0.1 0.1 2.5 2.5 1.0 1.0 29.0 29.1 72 0.1 0.1 3.8 3.8 1.0 1.0 37.9 38.0 96 0.2 0.1 5.3 5.4 0.9 0.9 46.6 46.9 120 0.3 0.2 7.1 7.1 0.9 0.9 54.8 54.7 144 0.4 0.3 8.6 8.6 0.8 0.8 61.0 61.6 168 0.3 0.4 10.0 10.0 0.8 0.8 66.4 67.3 192 0.4 0.4 11.2 11.2 0.7 0.7 70.4 71.5 216 0.4 0.5 12.1 12.3 0.7 0.7 73.5 74.9 240 0.2 0.4 13.3 13.3 0.6 0.6 77.5 77.4 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.5 -2.6 12.2 12.4 1.0 1.0 14.1 14.1 48 -4.2 -4.4 22.6 22.9 1.0 1.0 21.5 21.6 72 -5.0 -5.6 36.7 36.5 1.0 1.0 29.1 29.1 96 -5.4 -6.1 53.3 52.8 0.9 0.9 36.6 36.4 120 -5.5 -6.1 72.1 71.2 0.9 0.9 44.0 43.7 144 -6.1 -6.1 88.3 87.8 0.9 0.9 49.7 49.5 168 -7.6 -7.1 104.7 103.7 0.8 0.8 55.0 55.1 192 -9.1 -8.6 119.2 120.1 0.8 0.7 59.2 59.7 216 -10.3 -9.9 129.4 134.2 0.7 0.7 62.0 63.0 240 -12.6 -12.6 142.6 144.6 0.6 0.6 65.7 65.5 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.8 -1.0 14.7 15.1 1.0 1.0 10.9 11.0 48 -1.2 -1.2 27.7 27.9 1.0 1.0 16.9 16.9 72 -2.0 -2.3 45.4 45.1 1.0 1.0 23.4 23.3 96 -3.1 -3.3 67.8 66.1 0.9 0.9 30.6 30.0 120 -4.5 -4.4 92.3 90.5 0.9 0.9 37.4 37.0 144 -6.8 -6.4 112.6 112.8 0.9 0.9 42.6 42.6 168 -10.1 -9.5 135.2 134.2 0.8 0.8 47.8 47.9 192 -14.8 -14.5 156.3 157.1 0.8 0.8 51.9 52.4 216 -18.4 -18.0 170.8 177.3 0.7 0.7 54.9 55.8 240 -22.5 -22.6 188.8 191.9 0.6 0.6 58.4 58.4 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 72 0.1 0.1 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.2 2.4 2.4 0.9 0.9 120 0.1 0.2 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.8 144 0.1 0.1 3.5 3.5 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.0 3.9 3.9 0.8 0.8 192 -0.1 -0.1 4.4 4.4 0.7 0.7 216 -0.2 -0.2 4.7 4.7 0.7 0.7 240 -0.3 -0.3 4.9 5.1 0.6 0.6 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 -0.1 -0.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 -0.2 -0.2 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 96 -0.3 -0.3 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.9 120 -0.4 -0.4 2.8 2.7 0.8 0.8 144 -0.6 -0.6 3.1 3.1 0.8 0.8 168 -0.6 -0.7 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.7 192 -0.8 -0.8 3.7 3.6 0.7 0.7 216 -1.0 -0.9 3.9 3.9 0.7 0.7 240 -1.1 -1.1 4.1 4.1 0.6 0.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.3 48 0.0 0.0 6.5 6.5 72 0.0 0.0 8.7 8.7 96 -0.1 -0.1 10.9 10.9 120 -0.2 -0.1 13.1 13.0 144 -0.2 -0.2 14.9 14.8 168 -0.3 -0.3 16.6 16.6 192 -0.5 -0.5 17.9 18.1 216 -0.6 -0.5 18.9 19.2 240 -0.6 -0.5 20.2 20.2 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 5.2 5.2 48 0.1 0.0 8.0 8.0 72 -0.1 -0.1 11.0 10.9 96 -0.2 -0.1 14.3 14.1 120 -0.3 -0.3 17.6 17.4 144 -0.4 -0.4 20.3 20.2 168 -0.3 -0.5 22.9 22.9 192 -0.5 -0.6 25.2 25.4 216 -0.6 -0.5 26.9 27.4 240 -0.5 -0.4 28.9 28.8 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.24 -0.96 8.44 8.02 48 -0.80 -1.56 12.19 10.99 72 -0.81 -1.64 16.14 14.61 96 -1.40 -1.66 20.37 19.76 120 -1.78 -0.39 26.47 25.36 144 -1.20 -0.40 31.11 29.54 168 -0.40 -0.72 35.92 35.46 192 -1.78 -1.37 39.05 36.37 216 -3.72 -3.94 40.50 38.56 240 0.02 -1.98 40.93 42.81 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.38 0.67 9.46 9.23 48 2.79 1.00 13.58 13.11 72 3.64 1.88 19.34 17.88 96 3.14 2.91 24.78 25.15 120 4.15 4.62 33.50 33.11 144 5.02 4.91 42.45 39.26 168 7.00 5.20 48.37 46.43 192 6.51 5.34 53.69 51.43 216 6.43 4.73 59.04 56.34 240 11.97 8.68 62.35 62.99 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.80 5.85 15.33 15.40 48 5.79 7.24 23.31 23.40 72 5.91 7.40 34.02 32.19 96 4.66 8.93 42.54 43.22 120 7.67 10.79 54.78 54.15 144 10.33 11.97 68.30 63.76 168 13.03 12.16 78.27 75.58 192 12.27 10.27 85.03 84.86 216 13.43 12.52 99.31 94.70 240 22.18 19.13 105.56 105.93 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 -0.07 1.49 1.36 48 0.28 -0.08 1.77 1.64 72 0.36 -0.09 2.02 1.85 96 0.30 -0.07 2.29 2.15 120 0.37 -0.02 2.67 2.51 144 0.30 -0.04 3.04 2.89 168 0.27 -0.09 3.32 3.32 192 0.52 0.09 3.62 3.60 216 0.67 0.07 4.01 3.97 240 0.63 0.18 4.11 4.24 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.28 0.91 0.97 48 0.24 0.38 1.13 1.19 72 0.23 0.40 1.35 1.39 96 0.22 0.45 1.56 1.61 120 0.33 0.48 1.81 1.81 144 0.43 0.47 2.11 2.00 168 0.48 0.49 2.28 2.24 192 0.55 0.49 2.40 2.39 216 0.68 0.69 2.75 2.67 240 0.79 0.84 2.94 2.86 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.43 0.44 1.21 1.17 48 0.39 0.44 1.47 1.44 72 0.24 0.33 1.71 1.64 96 0.14 0.28 1.89 1.82 120 0.18 0.23 2.11 2.04 144 0.17 0.29 2.23 2.16 168 0.25 0.27 2.45 2.33 192 0.07 0.10 2.47 2.38 216 0.14 0.17 2.67 2.61 240 0.24 0.26 2.82 2.75 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.15 3.82 4.12 48 -0.03 -0.10 4.40 4.88 72 -0.09 -0.14 5.37 5.58 96 -0.24 -0.24 6.06 6.34 120 -0.16 -0.19 6.73 7.04 144 -0.12 -0.37 7.43 7.46 168 -0.11 -0.37 7.90 8.16 192 -0.35 -0.64 8.11 8.12 216 -0.24 -0.62 8.34 8.54 240 -0.36 -0.82 8.59 8.89 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.19 4.60 4.45 48 -0.26 -0.10 5.54 5.54 72 -0.25 -0.10 6.47 6.26 96 -0.57 -0.36 7.19 7.37 120 -0.76 -0.56 8.34 8.22 144 -0.85 -0.51 9.22 8.99 168 -0.90 -0.71 10.06 10.00 192 -1.31 -1.07 10.56 10.44 216 -1.28 -1.25 11.48 11.34 240 -1.42 -1.51 11.87 11.68 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.78 6.92 6.78 48 -0.85 -1.02 8.97 8.92 72 -1.45 -1.37 11.89 11.14 96 -2.15 -1.90 13.07 12.97 120 -2.59 -2.48 15.19 14.81 144 -2.79 -2.62 16.92 16.11 168 -2.87 -2.59 18.75 18.07 192 -3.35 -3.31 19.85 19.26 216 -3.57 -3.63 21.82 20.94 240 -3.57 -3.75 22.56 21.85 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.36 -1.61 8.35 7.60 48 -3.63 -1.82 10.31 9.91 72 -3.96 -0.67 13.76 13.26 96 -2.69 0.54 18.42 18.64 120 -5.96 1.25 24.73 24.56 144 -5.16 1.03 29.87 29.54 168 -0.41 1.76 36.67 33.12 192 3.48 0.64 41.22 36.07 216 7.80 5.30 46.78 44.26 240 8.63 2.83 51.78 49.76 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.90 1.31 10.65 10.61 48 0.07 3.32 14.73 14.86 72 1.60 7.59 20.28 21.01 96 3.88 9.00 28.14 28.55 120 1.23 9.86 34.30 38.64 144 1.93 11.51 45.18 47.65 168 5.19 12.86 57.09 53.13 192 12.66 7.65 66.34 56.59 216 15.06 13.45 74.06 69.00 240 8.14 10.58 82.61 80.26 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.71 10.76 17.21 19.41 48 11.40 17.80 26.22 29.03 72 17.16 25.69 35.73 40.84 96 22.88 28.75 49.61 52.79 120 20.08 27.63 57.14 65.69 144 20.20 33.97 72.27 83.00 168 21.10 35.33 94.68 92.61 192 28.37 31.81 110.55 102.73 216 32.04 32.04 122.87 112.58 240 18.51 27.67 131.04 132.56 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.30 1.07 1.14 48 0.12 0.42 1.24 1.36 72 0.22 0.49 1.42 1.60 96 0.29 0.54 1.75 1.88 120 0.32 0.56 2.03 2.32 144 0.25 0.69 2.54 2.75 168 0.28 0.76 3.00 3.08 192 0.51 0.75 3.51 3.33 216 0.37 0.67 3.76 3.46 240 0.13 0.61 4.04 3.81 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.35 0.93 0.96 48 0.47 0.55 1.22 1.20 72 0.64 0.76 1.40 1.57 96 0.79 0.81 1.80 1.81 120 0.79 0.81 2.02 2.10 144 0.76 0.95 2.35 2.46 168 0.62 0.87 2.79 2.72 192 0.74 0.67 3.12 2.91 216 0.73 0.75 3.23 3.14 240 0.51 0.71 3.38 3.46 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.47 0.53 1.29 1.22 48 0.49 0.63 1.57 1.63 72 0.62 0.69 1.96 1.90 96 0.73 0.75 2.28 2.21 120 0.71 0.79 2.52 2.46 144 0.67 0.80 2.72 2.78 168 0.59 0.77 3.05 2.97 192 0.65 0.73 3.33 3.16 216 0.66 0.68 3.58 3.36 240 0.49 0.57 3.66 3.54 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.25 3.64 3.43 48 -0.19 -0.32 4.33 3.92 72 -0.19 -0.26 4.89 4.60 96 -0.23 -0.28 5.57 5.02 120 -0.16 -0.60 6.22 5.98 144 -0.38 -0.70 7.17 6.37 168 -0.70 -0.67 7.73 7.08 192 -0.77 -1.04 8.32 7.40 216 -1.04 -1.11 8.46 7.79 240 -1.25 -1.07 9.01 8.45 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.22 4.05 3.88 48 -0.04 -0.18 5.05 4.74 72 0.01 -0.08 5.79 5.84 96 0.06 0.04 7.01 6.81 120 0.11 -0.24 8.02 8.50 144 0.02 -0.15 9.42 9.49 168 0.14 -0.41 10.62 10.28 192 -0.30 -0.72 11.66 10.92 216 -0.78 -0.77 12.26 11.87 240 -1.06 -1.04 13.58 12.94 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.32 6.38 5.64 48 -0.59 -0.32 8.15 7.58 72 -0.53 -0.11 10.25 9.50 96 -0.68 -0.43 12.60 11.90 120 -0.68 -0.73 14.34 14.06 144 -0.52 -0.67 16.61 16.56 168 -0.36 -1.14 19.64 18.29 192 -0.65 -0.71 21.07 19.15 216 -0.49 -0.73 21.83 20.39 240 -0.37 -0.62 23.50 22.55 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.86 -2.49 10.23 10.13 48 -4.43 -1.61 13.83 13.07 72 -3.75 -1.11 18.57 17.10 96 -2.71 -1.66 23.74 22.26 120 -1.89 -1.16 27.86 26.78 144 -1.00 0.43 32.03 30.37 168 -2.13 2.44 34.73 32.72 192 -3.44 1.38 36.49 33.25 216 -3.97 1.59 38.87 36.76 240 -1.89 1.44 40.53 38.14 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.29 -1.28 13.99 13.17 48 -3.23 0.57 17.51 16.34 72 -1.85 1.44 22.44 21.73 96 -1.39 0.45 28.84 28.88 120 0.23 0.81 36.01 33.70 144 -0.08 1.76 41.90 41.71 168 -0.04 3.07 46.21 45.33 192 0.04 2.87 49.05 47.16 216 0.49 4.22 51.92 50.05 240 1.28 3.91 53.16 53.24 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.29 0.58 20.46 19.07 48 -1.12 4.40 27.00 26.45 72 -1.28 3.82 34.64 33.67 96 -1.11 -0.01 44.12 44.35 120 0.15 -1.07 54.80 54.34 144 -0.93 -0.98 65.27 66.49 168 -0.99 1.52 75.01 74.78 192 -1.30 -0.08 81.65 79.16 216 -0.38 -0.41 86.11 82.12 240 -1.23 -0.98 90.11 84.16 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.10 1.48 1.61 48 0.16 0.22 1.78 1.93 72 0.22 0.32 2.09 2.27 96 0.24 0.39 2.42 2.66 120 0.29 0.41 2.75 3.01 144 0.35 0.46 3.02 3.34 168 0.34 0.48 3.33 3.59 192 0.63 0.61 3.45 3.71 216 0.73 0.67 3.60 3.91 240 0.71 0.76 3.83 4.06 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.18 1.11 1.13 48 0.17 0.20 1.33 1.34 72 0.11 0.13 1.49 1.52 96 0.10 0.03 1.64 1.74 120 0.10 -0.02 1.85 1.89 144 0.04 -0.08 2.08 2.11 168 0.06 -0.04 2.25 2.34 192 0.08 -0.06 2.39 2.43 216 0.08 -0.04 2.46 2.50 240 0.03 -0.11 2.63 2.51 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.37 1.44 1.43 48 0.33 0.54 1.73 1.73 72 0.19 0.48 1.96 1.90 96 0.15 0.35 2.12 2.12 120 0.01 0.18 2.36 2.24 144 -0.01 0.18 2.49 2.54 168 -0.07 0.19 2.75 2.82 192 -0.27 -0.08 2.95 2.89 216 -0.26 -0.13 2.97 2.95 240 -0.32 -0.31 3.11 3.02 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.09 4.21 4.21 48 -0.22 -0.19 5.20 5.00 72 -0.35 -0.23 6.09 5.82 96 -0.20 -0.22 7.02 6.81 120 -0.29 -0.05 7.63 7.59 144 -0.32 -0.06 8.14 8.15 168 -0.25 0.01 8.56 8.46 192 -0.48 -0.35 8.51 8.24 216 -0.35 -0.14 8.90 8.56 240 -0.44 -0.28 9.10 8.73 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.41 4.67 4.76 48 -0.67 -0.57 5.72 5.91 72 -0.89 -0.71 6.78 6.83 96 -1.03 -0.90 7.73 8.09 120 -0.98 -0.82 8.80 8.79 144 -1.11 -0.91 9.50 9.73 168 -1.06 -1.13 9.90 10.17 192 -1.40 -1.47 9.98 10.20 216 -1.32 -1.40 10.60 10.59 240 -1.30 -1.37 11.05 10.92 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.15 7.33 7.75 48 -0.45 -0.25 9.57 10.10 72 -0.72 -0.59 11.54 11.59 96 -1.04 -0.80 13.49 13.52 120 -1.33 -0.79 14.91 14.92 144 -1.54 -0.96 16.33 16.68 168 -1.47 -1.13 17.19 17.79 192 -1.65 -1.28 17.63 18.02 216 -1.54 -1.51 18.54 18.23 240 -1.32 -1.42 19.34 18.80 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 0.75 7.16 7.49 48 1.42 3.80 9.89 12.81 72 2.87 4.83 15.25 20.34 96 4.60 7.25 24.32 28.17 120 7.52 10.67 32.95 44.35 144 7.81 11.19 38.68 51.96 168 10.48 10.83 45.36 58.13 192 9.12 8.66 48.79 67.71 216 10.76 13.17 52.67 72.08 240 13.40 13.80 55.57 81.96 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.12 -2.13 10.61 10.61 48 -3.28 -0.92 15.49 17.71 72 -2.74 -0.69 23.64 27.91 96 -1.61 0.11 34.55 40.45 120 -0.75 5.20 46.16 59.61 144 -0.45 6.29 55.33 70.22 168 3.26 7.90 65.06 78.82 192 0.67 3.43 71.88 89.42 216 1.62 4.92 77.00 98.24 240 8.49 1.64 80.19 107.98 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.78 1.99 13.95 15.96 48 1.54 3.52 21.16 23.40 72 -2.67 -2.26 33.19 37.88 96 -6.52 -4.46 49.53 54.91 120 -7.88 -0.19 65.96 75.44 144 -10.77 -1.29 79.52 96.04 168 -10.63 -2.75 90.88 104.38 192 -17.01 -8.05 105.14 118.94 216 -16.54 -10.81 114.29 133.16 240 -12.76 -18.29 121.53 152.59 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.28 1.25 1.25 48 -0.26 -0.37 1.44 1.43 72 -0.37 -0.43 1.66 1.78 96 -0.46 -0.62 1.95 2.03 120 -0.61 -0.66 2.28 2.48 144 -0.53 -0.55 2.62 2.51 168 -0.31 -0.39 2.75 2.96 192 -0.31 -0.33 2.78 2.92 216 -0.22 -0.34 3.20 3.14 240 -0.19 -0.79 3.17 3.47 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.11 1.16 1.00 48 0.30 0.17 1.41 1.20 72 0.30 0.12 1.71 1.65 96 0.27 -0.03 2.04 2.19 120 0.21 0.30 2.38 2.39 144 0.13 0.09 2.61 2.75 168 -0.01 0.17 2.78 3.05 192 -0.21 -0.05 3.16 3.19 216 -0.22 -0.35 3.32 3.44 240 -0.15 -0.57 3.49 3.80 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.12 1.15 1.27 48 0.03 0.04 1.39 1.60 72 -0.25 -0.28 1.78 1.97 96 -0.57 -0.46 2.23 2.50 120 -0.75 -0.86 2.56 2.70 144 -0.97 -0.99 3.13 3.04 168 -1.20 -1.29 3.37 3.50 192 -1.38 -1.08 3.66 3.76 216 -1.41 -1.20 3.68 4.12 240 -1.79 -1.49 4.00 3.96 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.10 4.12 3.81 48 -0.42 -0.09 4.69 4.57 72 -0.34 -0.22 5.48 5.48 96 -0.63 -0.09 6.69 6.09 120 -0.67 -0.06 7.48 7.59 144 -0.34 -0.20 8.39 8.35 168 -0.67 -0.47 8.94 9.16 192 -0.69 -0.59 9.46 9.82 216 -0.62 -0.35 10.35 10.43 240 -0.36 -0.74 11.14 11.48 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.75 5.08 4.86 48 -0.66 -0.89 6.19 6.15 72 -0.72 -0.89 7.51 7.48 96 -0.82 -1.00 9.38 9.20 120 -0.97 -1.13 10.93 10.84 144 -0.67 -1.23 12.45 12.35 168 -1.11 -1.21 13.84 14.16 192 -1.13 -1.50 14.29 14.63 216 -1.45 -1.41 15.73 15.70 240 -1.70 -2.03 16.51 16.17 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.49 5.81 5.64 48 -0.96 -0.81 7.34 7.23 72 -1.38 -0.95 9.86 9.34 96 -1.31 -1.04 12.67 11.73 120 -1.55 -1.18 15.28 14.03 144 -1.53 -1.74 17.57 17.43 168 -1.87 -1.74 20.07 19.65 192 -2.22 -1.71 22.61 21.10 216 -2.86 -2.02 24.46 24.15 240 -3.45 -2.43 25.61 24.58 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -0.17 8.87 9.48 48 0.45 1.96 9.47 10.76 72 1.63 2.89 10.62 11.51 96 2.07 3.55 12.05 12.88 120 2.23 3.67 13.34 13.98 144 2.10 2.17 14.18 14.39 168 2.54 2.41 15.51 14.88 192 2.39 0.50 16.61 15.67 216 2.17 -0.51 17.16 16.20 240 2.51 -0.40 17.51 16.89 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.75 -4.17 13.55 13.27 48 -3.96 -2.99 13.83 13.65 72 -3.58 -2.90 15.30 14.58 96 -3.64 -2.61 16.16 15.47 120 -4.41 -3.24 17.78 16.77 144 -5.99 -5.20 18.91 17.73 168 -6.67 -6.23 20.35 18.79 192 -7.92 -8.86 21.46 20.09 216 -8.56 -9.52 21.44 20.22 240 -8.86 -10.02 21.72 21.30 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.51 -4.89 18.37 16.45 48 -4.84 -5.46 19.76 17.88 72 -6.54 -6.55 21.99 19.46 96 -8.46 -6.99 24.23 21.10 120 -11.09 -8.69 26.30 23.14 144 -14.30 -11.76 28.07 24.04 168 -17.03 -14.16 30.15 25.88 192 -21.66 -19.60 33.32 29.49 216 -23.95 -21.26 35.09 31.14 240 -25.61 -22.43 37.02 32.24 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.38 1.21 1.16 48 -0.49 -0.53 1.27 1.23 72 -0.59 -0.65 1.31 1.28 96 -0.64 -0.70 1.40 1.35 120 -0.71 -0.76 1.49 1.43 144 -0.78 -0.80 1.62 1.46 168 -0.83 -0.87 1.75 1.49 192 -0.82 -0.91 1.71 1.55 216 -0.83 -0.91 1.72 1.63 240 -0.90 -0.91 1.88 1.68 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.26 1.04 1.03 48 0.33 0.20 1.13 1.08 72 0.29 0.22 1.20 1.14 96 0.24 0.22 1.21 1.19 120 0.20 0.21 1.22 1.24 144 0.16 0.25 1.28 1.24 168 0.07 0.20 1.36 1.28 192 -0.05 0.21 1.41 1.35 216 -0.08 0.16 1.46 1.38 240 -0.06 0.19 1.48 1.43 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.11 0.93 0.92 48 0.18 0.07 1.05 1.02 72 0.16 0.06 1.15 1.09 96 0.11 0.05 1.25 1.15 120 0.02 -0.02 1.27 1.20 144 -0.11 -0.11 1.35 1.23 168 -0.23 -0.19 1.39 1.32 192 -0.46 -0.45 1.45 1.37 216 -0.62 -0.56 1.51 1.42 240 -0.73 -0.62 1.57 1.47 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.30 4.58 4.30 48 -0.31 -0.17 4.98 4.82 72 -0.56 -0.34 5.20 5.08 96 -0.62 -0.47 5.49 5.23 120 -0.77 -0.62 5.86 5.47 144 -0.84 -0.78 6.20 5.90 168 -0.87 -0.80 6.49 6.15 192 -0.98 -0.86 6.71 6.26 216 -0.83 -0.77 7.00 6.52 240 -0.79 -0.74 7.25 6.89 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.41 4.48 4.61 48 -0.49 -0.52 4.88 4.95 72 -0.50 -0.51 5.34 5.36 96 -0.42 -0.51 5.84 5.76 120 -0.34 -0.55 6.22 6.20 144 -0.23 -0.46 6.79 6.66 168 -0.20 -0.47 6.92 6.96 192 -0.24 -0.59 7.31 7.22 216 -0.26 -0.47 7.92 7.44 240 -0.09 -0.44 8.21 7.98 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.39 6.20 6.35 48 -0.45 -0.60 6.93 7.22 72 -0.67 -0.65 7.60 7.88 96 -0.61 -0.84 8.14 8.29 120 -0.77 -0.97 8.50 8.69 144 -0.81 -0.98 9.20 9.32 168 -0.74 -1.11 9.89 9.82 192 -0.80 -1.16 10.14 10.18 216 -0.89 -1.31 10.65 10.81 240 -0.94 -1.14 11.27 11.72 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.47 -1.92 9.16 8.97 48 -3.01 -2.41 12.75 12.30 72 -3.03 -2.18 17.66 17.04 96 -2.96 -1.91 23.56 22.88 120 -3.58 -2.09 29.97 29.60 144 -3.47 -1.99 36.40 35.75 168 -2.84 -2.91 42.04 40.62 192 -3.33 -3.35 46.24 44.64 216 -3.63 -3.86 51.02 49.17 240 -2.35 -4.54 53.99 53.99 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.24 12.00 11.65 48 -0.21 0.38 16.67 16.56 72 0.35 1.33 23.18 23.01 96 0.91 1.83 31.68 31.55 120 0.40 2.09 41.71 41.45 144 0.88 2.43 51.52 51.41 168 1.28 1.88 60.85 58.86 192 1.47 1.09 69.79 66.10 216 1.08 0.40 78.06 73.95 240 2.38 0.17 82.37 82.58 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.05 5.90 18.20 18.65 48 7.07 9.00 26.91 27.81 72 8.14 10.48 37.47 38.37 96 8.92 11.01 49.99 51.48 120 9.19 11.41 64.89 65.16 144 8.89 11.61 77.31 79.61 168 8.10 9.93 93.45 91.67 192 7.60 7.89 107.46 103.23 216 6.56 6.43 119.88 113.83 240 4.84 5.88 126.09 127.64 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 -0.02 1.34 1.33 48 0.09 0.03 1.62 1.60 72 0.12 0.05 1.89 1.91 96 0.12 0.07 2.23 2.24 120 0.15 0.10 2.65 2.70 144 0.11 0.12 3.06 3.11 168 0.12 0.07 3.43 3.51 192 0.27 0.18 3.82 3.77 216 0.28 0.19 4.10 4.04 240 0.23 0.18 4.31 4.29 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.26 1.01 1.02 48 0.30 0.36 1.26 1.30 72 0.33 0.40 1.51 1.56 96 0.36 0.42 1.83 1.86 120 0.39 0.42 2.18 2.16 144 0.40 0.40 2.42 2.45 168 0.35 0.35 2.76 2.70 192 0.34 0.33 3.01 2.92 216 0.37 0.36 3.24 3.15 240 0.35 0.38 3.35 3.38 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.44 0.44 1.38 1.32 48 0.47 0.54 1.75 1.74 72 0.40 0.47 2.07 2.02 96 0.33 0.41 2.38 2.33 120 0.28 0.39 2.69 2.65 144 0.23 0.29 2.86 2.97 168 0.13 0.21 3.16 3.13 192 -0.06 -0.02 3.31 3.28 216 -0.03 -0.04 3.49 3.36 240 -0.08 -0.08 3.56 3.51 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.26 3.91 3.93 48 -0.16 -0.25 4.69 4.64 72 -0.30 -0.30 5.58 5.47 96 -0.32 -0.41 6.41 6.21 120 -0.33 -0.40 7.14 7.11 144 -0.39 -0.54 7.80 7.65 168 -0.55 -0.57 8.49 8.25 192 -0.68 -0.84 8.77 8.40 216 -0.65 -0.78 9.05 8.72 240 -0.83 -0.84 9.26 9.10 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.26 4.36 4.34 48 -0.25 -0.25 5.49 5.49 72 -0.28 -0.24 6.60 6.47 96 -0.36 -0.36 7.76 7.74 120 -0.41 -0.44 8.99 8.88 144 -0.55 -0.49 9.98 9.96 168 -0.67 -0.73 11.00 10.97 192 -0.98 -1.08 11.61 11.42 216 -1.03 -1.07 12.50 12.08 240 -1.26 -1.26 13.11 12.81 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.47 6.62 6.50 48 -0.51 -0.51 8.81 8.78 72 -0.70 -0.56 11.42 11.08 96 -1.00 -0.76 13.42 13.32 120 -1.14 -1.01 15.51 15.23 144 -1.32 -1.12 17.46 17.25 168 -1.32 -1.52 19.58 19.10 192 -1.82 -1.78 20.82 20.21 216 -1.89 -1.88 22.31 21.01 240 -1.95 -1.99 23.09 22.35 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.17 -0.70 9.97 10.64 48 2.12 1.07 13.44 14.03 72 1.96 1.52 19.26 19.36 96 3.32 0.68 29.49 26.02 120 5.33 -0.57 40.29 36.63 144 6.05 1.18 47.91 43.88 168 9.30 3.43 54.59 50.87 192 8.47 2.04 59.33 57.55 216 10.60 2.92 63.29 63.37 240 12.53 1.89 68.89 71.03 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.09 -2.77 13.36 14.21 48 -2.44 -3.31 19.55 19.77 72 -3.07 -2.33 30.59 28.01 96 -2.97 -3.24 44.76 38.58 120 -2.29 -3.61 59.08 53.77 144 -1.20 -0.22 70.83 63.18 168 2.47 2.76 79.74 72.46 192 0.82 1.19 86.01 81.95 216 2.16 1.48 92.16 91.87 240 4.05 -2.04 99.51 101.40 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.76 1.94 17.07 19.91 48 2.15 2.64 25.64 27.21 72 -0.78 2.21 40.31 38.63 96 -3.90 1.26 60.00 53.47 120 -5.10 -0.99 80.05 72.93 144 -5.70 -0.60 94.08 86.24 168 -6.22 3.21 106.71 99.26 192 -9.65 0.87 119.64 113.64 216 -8.40 1.10 129.30 126.78 240 -6.19 -2.25 139.42 141.49 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.39 1.45 1.51 48 -0.54 -0.57 1.73 1.66 72 -0.64 -0.59 2.07 1.94 96 -0.73 -0.68 2.51 2.31 120 -0.90 -0.70 2.95 2.72 144 -0.91 -0.50 3.48 3.15 168 -0.71 -0.24 3.68 3.43 192 -0.70 -0.34 3.86 3.61 216 -0.65 -0.36 4.23 4.15 240 -0.88 -0.63 4.34 4.39 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.19 1.10 1.10 48 0.20 0.20 1.42 1.33 72 0.22 0.28 1.84 1.73 96 0.23 0.32 2.28 2.20 120 0.17 0.36 2.65 2.55 144 0.17 0.33 2.93 2.84 168 0.12 0.39 3.15 3.20 192 -0.03 0.43 3.45 3.29 216 0.00 0.33 3.74 3.58 240 -0.01 0.22 3.97 3.92 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.19 1.23 1.33 48 0.02 0.16 1.49 1.53 72 -0.19 -0.03 1.91 1.91 96 -0.44 -0.10 2.38 2.30 120 -0.61 -0.30 2.69 2.57 144 -0.86 -0.38 3.20 2.76 168 -0.99 -0.58 3.52 3.11 192 -1.07 -0.57 3.65 3.29 216 -1.04 -0.45 3.68 3.56 240 -1.25 -0.36 4.11 3.52 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.31 4.41 4.39 48 -0.47 -0.37 4.91 5.04 72 -0.54 -0.40 5.99 6.22 96 -0.80 -0.30 7.21 7.08 120 -0.81 -0.21 8.05 8.25 144 -0.45 -0.40 9.24 9.00 168 -0.56 -0.49 9.78 10.11 192 -0.97 -0.78 10.56 10.58 216 -0.93 -0.75 11.08 11.25 240 -0.77 -1.14 11.73 11.95 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.56 5.23 5.23 48 -0.59 -0.82 6.46 6.69 72 -0.84 -0.92 8.04 8.40 96 -1.02 -1.07 10.11 9.76 120 -1.14 -1.03 11.79 11.67 144 -1.01 -1.35 13.30 12.98 168 -1.43 -1.49 14.76 14.76 192 -1.65 -1.68 15.31 15.96 216 -1.65 -1.59 16.63 16.87 240 -1.98 -1.66 17.60 17.55 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.53 6.39 6.55 48 -0.78 -0.61 8.39 8.35 72 -1.21 -0.83 11.07 11.19 96 -1.42 -1.05 14.13 13.57 120 -1.71 -1.40 16.64 16.25 144 -1.91 -1.79 19.17 18.87 168 -2.42 -1.99 21.71 21.37 192 -2.78 -2.07 23.76 23.26 216 -2.91 -1.77 25.62 25.92 240 -2.50 -1.17 27.12 26.85