All,

You are receiving this message because you have been identified as a user of NCEP model data. The NCEP NAEFS modeling system will be upgraded on Tue Dec 4 2007. Please see the NWS TIN (Technical Information Notice) below if you are interested in using the output from the NAEFS modeling system.

Please see the NCO PMB model changes web site for more information concerning NCEP model changes.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

Thanks,
Joey Carr

EFFECTIVE TUE DEC 4 2007...WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN...NCEP WILL BEGIN PRODUCING PRODUCTS FROM THE NAEFS MODELING SYSTEM. THIS MODELING SYSTEM UTILIZES OUTPUT FROM BOTH THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM /GEFS/ AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM /CEFS/ AND COMBINES THEM TO PRODUCE NAEFS OUTPUT.

EXPECTED DATA DELIVERY TIMING/VOLUME/CONTENT CHANGES:

NOAAPORT DATA:

- THE NCEP GEFS ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS WHICH ARE DELIVERED TO NOAAPORT CUSTOMERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE.

- NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CONTENT DELIVERY TIME.

- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DATA VOLUMES ARE EXPECTED.

- NO CHANGE IN PDS CONTENT IS EXPECTED.

NCEP/NWS FTP SERVERS:

- AT THE CURRENT TIME...GLOBAL NCEP GEFS LAT/LON GRIB FILES ARE DELIVERED TO BOTH SERVERS.

- CURRENT DATA SETS WILL BE NOT BE CHANGED

- NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CONTENT DELIVERY TIME.

- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DATA VOLUMES ARE EXPECTED.

- NO CHANGE IN PDS CONTENT IS EXPECTED.

- NEW NAEFS NATIONAL DIGITAL GRIDDED DATABASE /NDGD/ AND BIAS CORRECTED DATA SETS FOR 00 AND 12 UTC WILL BECOME AVAILABLE ON THE NCEP FTP SERVER.

DISCLAIMER: NCEP WOULD ENCOURAGE ALL USERS TO ENSURE THEIR DECODERS ARE FLEXIBLE AND ARE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY HANDLE CHANGES IN CONTENT ORDER...PARAMETER FIELDS CHANGING ORDER...CHANGES IN THE SCALING FACTOR COMPONENT WITHIN THE PDS OF THE GRIB FILES AND ALSO ANY VOLUME CHANGES WHICH MAY BE FORTHCOMING. THESE ELEMENTS MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE NCEP MODEL IMPLEMENTATIONS. NCEP WILL MAKE EVERY ATTEMPT TO ALERT USERS TO THESE CHANGES PRIOR TO ANY IMPLEMENTATIONS.

MODELING SYSTEM CHANGES:

NEW PRODUCTS PRODUCED AT NCEP:

GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM /GFS/ BIAS CORRECTED FILES AT 1 DEGREE RESOLUTION...THROUGH 180 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SET OF NCEP GEFS BIAS CORRECTED DATA SETS. THERE WILL BE 35 VARIABLES AVAILABLE. THESE HIGHER RESOLUTION DATA SETS WILL BE ASSIMILATED INTO THE NCEP GEFS BIAS CORRECTED FORECAST PRODUCTS AND ENHANCE/IMPROVE THE NCEP GEFS NUMBERICAL GUIDANCE. THE NEW AND IMPROVED BIAS CORRECTED NCEP GEFS DATA SETS WILL BE AVAILABLE AT 00 06 12 AND 18 UTC. PRODUCTS FOR WEIGHTS AND ANOMALIES WILL ALSO BE PRODUCED. ALL OUTPUT FROM THE GEFS WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 384 HOURS EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS BIAS CORRECTED FORECASTS.

NAEFS FILES PRODUCED FROM THE COMBINED NCEP GEFS...20 MEMBERS...AND CMC GEFS...20 MEMBERS...FOR 00 AND 12 UTC. THESE WILL BE PRODUCED ON A 1 DEGREE GLOBAL GRID. PRODUCTS INCLUDE MEANS...SPREADS...MODES AND 10 50 AND 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY FORECASTS. ANOMALY PRODUCTS WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE. ALL NAEFS OUTPUT WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 384 HOURS.

NDFD GRIDDED OUTPUT OVER THE CONUS DOMAIN…5 KM RESOLUTION…FROM THE NAEFS AND NCEP GEFS PRODUCT SUITES. THE NCEP GEFS GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE AT 00 06 12 AND 18 UTC. THE NAEFS GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE ONLY AT 00 AND 12 UTC. THESE PRODUCTS WILL CONTAIN 4 VARIABLES: SURFACE PRESSURE...2-METER TEMPERATURE...U/V WINDS. ALSO...MEAN...SPREAD...MODE...10 50 AND 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY PRODUCTS WILL BE PRODUCED. ALL NDFD OUTPUT WILL BE PRODUCED THROUGH 384 HOURS.

PARALLEL DATA SETS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE FOR EVALUATION ON WED OCT 24 2007 ON THE NCEP PUBLIC FTP SERVER AT THE ADDRESS BELOW. NCEP ENCOURAGES ALL USERS TO EVALUATE THESE DATA SETS TO ENSURE THAT THEIR SYSTEMS ARE PREPARED FOR THE UPCOMING CHANGE.
/PLEASE USE ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS/

FTP://FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/NAEFS/PARA

THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER /EMC/ HAS A PUBLICLY AVAILABLE WEB SITE WHICH CAN PROVIDE USERS MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING ALL NCEP MODELING SYSTEMS. /PLEASE USE LOWERCASE LETTERS/

HTTP://WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SPECIFIC INFORMATION REGARDING THE NAEFS CAN BE FOUND AT THE LINK BELOW: /PLEASE USE LOWERCASE LETTERS/

HTTP://WWWT.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/GMB/YZHU/HTML/IMP/200711_IMP.HTML

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS CONCERNING THE SCIENTIFIC CHANGES WITHIN THE MODELING SYSTEM...PLEASE CONTACT:

YUEJIAN ZHU
NCEP/EMC
CAMP SPRINGS MARYLAND
PHONE: 301 763 8000 X7052
EMAIL: YUEJIAN.ZHU@NOAA.GOV

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS CONCERNING THE DATAFLOW ASPECTS OF THIS IMPLEMENTATION...PLEASE SEND AN EMAIL TO THE NCEP/NCO/PMB DATAFLOW HELPDESK: /USE UPPERCASE LETTERS FOR THE NCEP.PMB.D PORTION OF EMAIL ADDRESS AND LOWERCASE LETTERS FOR THE REMAINDER/

NCEP.PMB.DATAFLOW@NOAA.GOV

THIS AND OTHER NWS TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICES ARE AVAILABLE
ONLINE AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM